Thursday, November 2, 2017

GWPF Newsletter: Global Temperatures Continue To Drop Back To Pre-El-Nino Levels








Global Oceans Continue To Cool

In this newsletter:

1) Global Temperatures Continue To Drop Back To Pre-El-Nino Levels
Clive Best blog, 29 October 2017
 
2) Global Oceans Continue To Cool
Ron Clutz, Science Matters, 26 October 2017


 
3) Global Warming Betting Will Finally Test Alarmists, Lukewarmers And Sceptics
Pensions & Investment, 30 October 2017 
 
4) Germany’s Climate Goals Go Up In Smoke
Handelsblatt Global,31 October 2017 
 
5) German Wind Farms To Be Terminated As Subsidies Run Out
Deutschge Press Agentur/ZDF, 31 October 2017 
 
6) Coal Standoff Hinders Merkel’s Push For Next German Government
Bloomberg, 27 October 2017 


Full details:

1) Global Temperatures Continue To Drop Back To Pre-El-Nino Levels
Clive Best blog, 29 October 2017

The HadCRUT4.5 temperature anomaly for September calculated by spherical triangulation is 0.54C, a fall of 0.17C since August. Temperatures have seemingly returned to a long trend after the 2016 El Nino.



Monthly temperature anomalies for HadCRUT4.5 (HadSST3 and CRUTEM4.6 stations data) calculated by spherical triangulation method.

Full post

2) Global Oceans Continue To Cool
Ron Clutz, Science Matters, 26 October 2017

September Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now available, and we see downward spikes in ocean temps everywhere, led by sharp decreases in the Tropics and SH, reversing the bump upward last month. The Tropical cooling in particular factors into forecasters favoring an unusually late La Nina appearance in coming months.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.

The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through September 2017.



The August bump upward was overcome with the Global average matching the lowest level in the chart at February 2015.  September NH temps almost erased a three-month climb; even so 9/2017 is well below the previous two years.  Meanwhile SH and the Tropics are setting new lows for this period.  With current reports from the El Nino 3.4 grid sector, it seems likely October will go even lower, with downward moves across all oceans.

Note that higher temps in 2015 and 2016 were first of all due to a sharp rise in Tropical SST, beginning in March 2015, peaking in January 2016, and steadily declining back to its beginning level. Secondly, the Northern Hemisphere added two bumps on the shoulders of Tropical warming, with peaks in August of each year. Also, note that the global release of heat was not dramatic, due to the Southern Hemisphere offsetting the Northern one. […]

Summary

We have seen lots of claims about the temperature records for 2016 and 2015 proving dangerous man made warming.  At least one senator stated that in a confirmation hearing.  Yet HadSST3 data for the last two years show how obvious is the ocean’s governing of global average temperatures.

Full post

3) Global Warming Betting Will Finally Test Alarmists, Lukewarmers And Sceptics
Pensions & Investment, 30 October 2017 

Scientists and others will soon be able to place bets on global climate changes, specifically the global mean temperature anomaly and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, using Winton Group Ltd.'s climate prediction market.

Although the idea of a climate prediction market was suggested by American economist Robin Hanson about 20 years ago, Winton's market is believed to be the first real-money prediction market that will allow participants to bet on climate changes several years out, said Mark Roulston, Oxford, England-based managing director at Winton.

Mr. Roulston said he believes the prediction market, which is expected to officially launch in the U.K. next year as an online gambling site, could produce a consensus for global temperature and carbon dioxide levels and will be "a useful tool to gauge people's seriousness in the climate-change debate."

 

 Only those people who place bets will have access to the prediction market's data.

Unlike traditional betting sites, Winton's market will be subsidized. "All the bets go through the market maker, which will be funded and operated by Winton," Mr. Roulston said.

Bets will be settled annually using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration monitoring station on the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii and from the U.K. Hadley Centre's HadCRUT4 time series.

Additional markets that focus on global sea level, extreme weather events and pollution could eventually be added.

Allowing joint betting on carbon dioxide levels and global mean temperature with the initial market was a "very conscious decision," Mr. Roulston said. If the market just focused on global temperatures and participants predicted the temperature wasn't going to increase significantly, it would not be clear whether participants doubted global warming was happening or whether instead they believed there was going to be robust action to reduce carbon emissions, he explained.

Full story

4) Germany’s Climate Goals Go Up In Smoke
Handelsblatt Global,31 October 2017 

Germany is often seen as a poster child for tackling climate change. In fact, the country seems almost certain to spectacularly miss its carbon emissions reduction goals for the year 2020.



The climate issue is a crucial sticking point in coalition talks to form a new government under Chancellor Angela Merkel: The Green Party wants to see redoubled efforts to cut emissions, but other parties think the failure highlights that the goals were always unrealistic. Time for a rethink, they say.

A new internal paper from the federal government, seen by Handelsblatt, is scathing about the likely failure to reach climate goals, demanding “an honest discussion about possible consequences.” It says that intensifying current policies would impose unacceptable costs on consumers, businesses and public spending.

The looming climate failure is no secret. The environment ministry recently confirmed that Germany would only reduce carbon dioxide emissions by between 31.7 and 32.5 percent, compared to 1990 levels. The official target is a 40-percent reduction.

The most likely new coalition after last month’s election would feature the Greens along with Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the pro-business Free Democrats, or FDP. With the FDP and CDU far less inclined to radical energy moves, climate policy is proving one of the toughest areas in coalition talks.

The internal government paper is scathing about costs of forcing even more reductions ahead of the 2020 deadline. In particular, it condemns any rapid phase out of coal-burning power plants: the closure of twenty heavy-emissions plants by 2020 is a key Green policy, along with a total coal shutdown by 2030.

The paper says ditching coal may look like a “quick and easily implemented measure,” but in fact would impose massive costs on coal-dependent regions, giving rise to serious political and social conflict. No rapid moves should be made until a proper economic plan is in place, it suggests.

This verdict will be music to the ears of the CDU and FDP, who make precisely this argument against Green positions in coalition talks. Sources in the environmentalist party suggest that the other parties are refusing even to put the phrase “coal shutdown” on the agenda for talks. Negotiations are set to resume this Thursday. […]

As well as pessimism on a coal exit, the government paper also pours cold water on the results of proposed cuts in other sectors. Since changes to building standards take considerable time, it warns that the construction sector “is unlikely to achieve the necessary reductions in the time before 2020.” It makes a similar judgment on transportation: “Success is unlikely in this sector in the time remaining.”

Its verdict on longer-term climate goals is equally scathing. Germany’s official position is to reduce emissions by 55 percent by 2030, in comparison with 1990 levels. The paper points out that for this, “the rate of reduction will have to be twice as quick as it has been in recent years.” Germany’s current climate-reduction targets, it says, “are extremely ambitious, or to be more precise: unachievable goals.”

All this points to continuing stumbling blocks in efforts to form a new coalition. The Greens are holding to a hard line. But the newly-confident FDP are equally determined to oppose extreme measures which could hit business and consumers. Yet again, it may fall to Ms. Merkel to broker a compromise, enabling the formation of a new government.

Full post

5) German Wind Farms To Be Terminated As Subsidies Run Out
Deutschge Press Agentur/ZDF, 31 October 2017 

Wind power is the most important component of Germany’s green energy transition. The end of subsides for older turbines, however, threatens countless wind farms. By 2023, more than a quarter of Germany’s onshore wind farms may be gone.



Several thousand wind turbines in Germany are likely to be closed down in the next decade because they will no longer receive any subsidies. “If electricity prices do not rise over the next decade, only a few plants will survive on the market without subsidies,” says an analysis by the Berlin-based consulting firm Energy Brainpool. This assessment is shared by most professionals. “In any case, by 2020, the shutdown of existing facilities is to be expected to a greater or lesser extent,” an article by several economists of the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research in Leipzig concludes.

The sticking point is the electricity price of 2021, which nobody knows today. Older wind turbines who have been running for 20 years or more will lose their subsidies under the Renewable Energy Act (EEG), but not their operating permit. They could go on generating power, if they would be profitable. Like all older technology, after 20 years of wear and tear, wind turbines are prone to repairs and are more maintenance-intensive than new products. Operating costs are higher too. The current electricity price of around three cents per kilowatt hour would not be enough to keep wind farms running – with perhaps a few exceptions in particularly good locations.

By 2021 alone, 5,700 wind turbines with a capacity of 4,500 megawatts will be closed down. In the following years, 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts each will be decommissioned. The German Wind Energy Association estimates that by 2023 around 14,000 megawatts of installed capacity will be gone. That would be more than a quarter of the currently installed onshore wind power capacity which would be eliminated.

The planned expansion corridor for onshore wind energy envisages that 2,900 megawatts of power will be installed in 2020 and in subsequent years. But that’s gross, not net. Decommissioned and dismantled facilities are not considered. In light of the current situation, more wind capacity would be decommissioned than new capacity added. Onshore wind energy would shrink, not grow.

Full story (in German)

6) Coal Standoff Hinders Merkel’s Push For Next German Government
Bloomberg, 27 October 2017 

A clash over climate change between two of Angela Merkel’s potential government partners escalated to the point that the German chancellor had to step in to tone things down.



With the Greens calling for an end to coal power generation in Europe’s biggest economy by 2030 and the pro-market Free Democratic Party balking, competing interests erupted into the open after the latest round of talks on forming Germany’s next government. It’s a sign of the pitfalls facing Merkel on topics from the euro and immigration to energy and the environment.

The chancellor was “a moderating influence” during what participants portrayed as a contentious session in Berlin late Thursday, Katja Suding, an FDP negotiator who participated in the closed-door meeting, told ZDF television.

Almost five weeks after an election victory handed Merkel a fourth term while leaving German politics fragmented, she and leaders of three other parties are hunkering down for weeks of bargaining on a potential governing alliance led by her Christian Democratic Union. Merkel wants to conclude the exploratory phase by mid-November, followed by detailed coalition talks.

“There’s a huge potential for conflict over energy and climate,” Claudia Kemfert, an economist at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, said by phone. The FDP appears to be equivocating on Germany’s climate targets “and it’ll be extremely difficult if they can’t reach a consensus on that,” Kemfert said.

Full story

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.

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