GWPF Newsletter: The Truth About The Global Warming Pause

More Evidence of the Great 21st Century Warming Pause

In this newsletter:

1) David Whitehouse: The Truth About The Global Warming Pause
The Spectator, 29 June 2017

2) More Evidence of the Great 21st Century Warming Pause
CO2 Science, 26 June 2017

Matt Ridley: Bootleggers and Baptists in the countryside

Even Michael Gove’s enemies concede he is good at tackling vested interests. Even his friends concede he has a knack for making enemies in the process. In his new job as secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, if he is to achieve anything, he may have to do a lot of both. So here’s a field guide to the vested interests he will encounter in the countryside.

Bruce Yandle, the American economist, once coined a phrase to explain why the disastrous policy of prohibition became law in the United States between 1920 and 1933: “Bootleggers and Baptists”. A very effective coalition developed between high-minded, high-profile moral campaigners and low-mind, low-profile smuggling profiteers to push for the outlawing of alcohol. The result was legislation that was good for bootleggers and Baptists but bad for society as a whole.

Brian Gaynor: Changing tastes spur food frenzy

The food sector is undergoing massive changes, as indicated by the recently announced acquisition of Whole Foods Market by Amazon.com and the IPO of Blue Apron, which will list on the New York Stock Exchange. Blue Apron has a similar meal kit business model to the highly successful My Food Bag in New Zealand.

In addition, this week’s a2 Milk profit upgrade demonstrates that companies offering innovative food products can be highly successful: a2’s annual revenue has soared from just $62 million in its June 2012 year to an indicated $545m in the current year.

Barend Vlaardingerbroek: Are the right to an abortion and the right to life irreconcilable?

   

A woman’s right to procure the termination of an unwanted pregnancy is one of those social issues that polarises societies. As with most hotly contested social issues, both camps on either side of the divide are ‘right’ in the sense that their cases are rational and logical given their central premises. 

These premises, however, arise from ideology and values rather than from hard empirical considerations. Hence the twain can never meet, and the issue will remain a polarising one forever. Unless and until, that is, someone comes up with an alternative that satisfies the requirements inherent in the central premises of both opposing parties.

NZCPR Weekly: Time for a Change in Welfare Policy

Dear NZCPR Reader,   

This week, we examine the UNICEF report on child well-being and raise concerns about how Government policies are endangering vulnerable children by prioritising culture over safety, our NZCPR Guest Commentator is retired Canadian Judge Brian Giesbrecht, who explains how race-based policies have destroyed child welfare services in Manitoba, and this week’s poll asks whether you believe Maori culture should dominate New Zealand’s new child protection service. .

*To read the newsletter click HERE.
*To register for the NZCPR Weekly mailing list, click HERE.  

GWPF Newsletter - New Consensus: The Global Warming Hiatus Is Real & Climate Models Failed

Reuters Investigation Exposes New Science Scandal

In this newsletter:

1) The New Consensus: Global Warming Hiatus Is Real & Climate Models Failed
Daily Caller, 19 June 2017
 
2) Causes Of Differences In Model And Satellite Tropospheric Warming Rates
Nature Geoscience, 19 June 2017

Frank Newman: The arrival of Amazon

There is increasing discussion in the business press about the changing nature of retail spending and the affect this is having on the demand for retail space. This is a matter of keen interest to commercial property investors.

The debate on this issue has become more prevalent in Australia, with the imminent arrival of Amazon.  In April Amazon announced it was looking for a location for an Australian distribution facility, and said it was about to establish a branch office in Australian to oversee its operations. It is quite likely that it will use the Australian base to service its New Zealand customers.

Matt Ridley: Post-election blues

For those of us who want a clean Brexit and who champion freedom and innovation rather than socialism, the election result was a shattering disappointment. It reduced the party that most embraces free enterprise to a minority in the House of Commons and leaves us with a diminished and humiliated government less likely to win crucial concessions from a European Union emboldened to be more punitive — all against a background of teenager-murdering theocracy.

But, as the first shock fades, I am finding a few crumbs of comfort. Not optimism exactly, but glimmers of light amid the gloom. Here is my top ten.

Brian Gaynor: GDP data for March quarter won’t dent NZ’s allure

New Zealand’s March quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures, which will have an important influence on the upcoming general election, were released this week.

Although the June quarter figures will be released on September 21, two days before the election, the March quarter figures will receive most of the political attention. This is because the National Government will boast about its great economic management while the opposition parties will argue that the benefits of our recent economic success have not been evenly distributed.

David Skilling: Just when you think it’s safe

One year on from the Brexit vote in June 2016, the UK is going around in circles with no political consensus on how to approach the negotiations – or even what they would like to achieve.  There is not a sufficiently large constituency for the hard Brexit approach seemingly favoured by PM May.  This opens the door for a softer, more pragmatic Brexit, with lower economic costs – but also raises the odds of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal.

But relative to the concerns that were held in the shocked aftermath of the initial Brexit vote, the fallout has been localised. 

GWPF Newsletter: Falling Ocean Temperatures Return To Pre-El Nino Levels

After El Nino Ends, Coral Reef Bleaching Ends

In this newsletter:

1) Pacific Ocean Cools, El Nino Is Cancelled
Bloomberg, 21 June 2017 
 
2) Falling Ocean Temperatures Return To Pre-El Nino Levels
Science Matters, 13 June 2017

Karl du Fresne: New Zealand's accountability deficit

When did you last hear of a judge resigning because honour demanded it, or to atone for a catastrophic error?

The most recent example I can think of is former District Court judge Robert Hesketh, who did the honourable thing by quitting in 1997 after pleading guilty to charges arising from fraudulent expense claims.

His fellow judge Martin Beattie faced similar charges but chose to fight them and was acquitted.

Tony Orman: Unity is Being Eroded by Division

Recently in the US, at an “Over-population Conference”  in Washington DC, a former  Governor of Colorado Richard D Lamm spoke on the startling subject, how to destroy America. 

            

Before he spoke an eminent college professor Victor Hansen Davis talked about his latest book, 'Mexifornia,' explaining how immigration - both legal and illegal was destroying the entire state of California.

GWPF Newsletter - New Study: Scientists Find 'Recent UK Flooding Is Not Unprecedented'

Matt Ridley: Gove Needs To Watch Out For The Green Lobby

In this newsletter:

1) New Study: Scientists Find Recent UK Flooding Is Not Unprecedented
GWPF Observatory, 17 June 2017 
 
2) Andrew Montford: Precedented Floods
GWPF Comment, 17 June 2017

NZCPR Weekly: Lessons from the UK Election

Dear NZCPR Reader,   

This week, we look into the recent UK election to see what lessons we can learn, our NZCPR Guest Commentator House of Lords Member Richard Balfe shares his analysis of the British election, and with New Zealand’s General Election less than 100 days away, this week’s poll asks for your predictions of which parties you believe will form the next Government. .

*To read the newsletter click HERE.
*To register for the NZCPR Weekly mailing list, click HERE.  

David Skilling: When China shakes the world

After another bad week for Western (or more precisely, Anglo) political leadership – from the revelations in Mr Comey’s Senate testimony, to the political uncertainty in the UK after a remarkably poor election campaign – it is worth thinking about China’s emerging position of global leadership.

This emergence is partly due to US withdrawal on global issues like trade and climate change. But the behaviour of the US is simply accelerating what was an inevitable rebalancing of economic and political leadership.  China overtook the US as the world’s biggest economy (in PPP terms) in 2014, and may well become the largest economy on market exchange rates in the next few decades (although there are many risks to this, as noted below).

GWPF Newsletter: The World’s New Energy Superpower

The Fourth Industrial Revolution Is Fueled By Oil & Gas

In this newsletter:

1) US Shale Revolution & Free Trade Create The World’s New Energy Superpower
Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, 16 June 2017
 
2) The Fourth Industrial Revolution Is Fueled By Oil & Gas
OilPrice, 14 June 2017 

Richard Epstein: The Cagey Mr Comey

Former FBI Director James Comey is the star of a gripping political drama that may bring Donald Trump’s tumultuous presidency to an ignominious end. Trump will be subject to nonstop political pressure, given his unerring ability to say, or tweet, the wrong thing at the wrong time. 

Comey’s testimony was constructed to lay the foundation for the special prosecutor to make a finding that President Trump had violated the well-established statutory prohibitions against obstruction of justice.  But the obstruction charges are not confined to impolitic tweets, and, ironically, may be applicable to Comey’s own effort to influence the FBI investigation. His prepared testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, which he followed up with his dramatic appearance before the Committee on June 8, has its undeniable surface appeal. But on closer reading, it reveals a darker side filled with self-serving allegations that should make him a target of far closer scrutiny than an uncritical and adoring press has given him.

GWPF Newsletter: G20 Summit - Merkel’s Anti-Trump Front Is Crumbling

1) G20 Summit: Merkel’s Anti-Trump Front Is Crumbling
Spiegel Online, 10 June 2017

2) Isolating Trump: Merkel’s G-20 Climate Alliance Is Crumbling
Spiegel Online, 9 June 2017

3) Tories Form Government With Climate-Sceptic DUP
edie News, 9 June 2017

4) UK Election: 'Nothing Has Changed'

5) And Finally: The Book Of Jeremy Corbyn
The New Yorker, 9 June 2017

Matt Ridley from the UK: Why no mention of enterprise and innovation?

Against the background of a terrorist campaign, a Tory government under a determined woman was cruising towards an easy victory against a socialist Labour party in a June election, but stumbling badly in the campaign. 

It was a dangerous world, with an impulsive American president and an undemocratic Russia and China. There was a funding crisis in the NHS and dire warnings of global environmental disaster: yes, this was 1987, the year of Margaret Thatcher’s third election victory — and of the Enniskillen bombing, shortly after, which killed 12 and injured 63.

GWPF Newsletter: The Closing of The Scientific Mind

‘Super Corals’ Are Resilient To Climate Change, Scientists Discover

In this newsletter:

1) ‘Super Corals’ Are Resilient To Climate Change, Scientists Discover
Newsweek, 9 June 2017
 
2) New Study: Large CO2 Emissions From Batteries Of Electric Cars
New Technology, 29 May 2017

GWPF Newsletter: Denmark Ends Green Incentives: Electric Car Sales Collapse

The Green Blob Is Outraged. Again

In this newsletter:

1) Denmark Ends Green Incentives, Electric Car Sales Collapse
Bloomberg, 2 June 2017

2) U.S. Opts Out of Signing G7 Pledge Supporting the Paris Agreement
Associated Press, 11 June 2017 

NZCPR Weekly: Political Courage

Dear NZCPR Reader,   

This week, we look at the importance of having political leaders with the courage to stand up to ideological bullies, our NZCPR Guest Commentator Professor Richard Epstein explains why US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord is the right thing to do, and this week’s poll asks whether you believe New Zealand should follow the lead of the US and withdraw from the Paris Accord as well.

 *To read the newsletter click HERE.
*To register for the NZCPR Weekly mailing list, click HERE.  

Frank Newman: Credit scores and simplicity

How good is your credit score? Checking is simple, and free. All you need is some details from a driver’s licence (or passport) and a click on the website creditsimple.co.nz. It literally takes less than a couple of minutes.

A credit score is a number between 0 and 1,000 that indicates how credit-worthy you are, and how likely you are to pay your bills on time. Most credit scores are between 300 and 850. The higher the score, the better your credit rating is. A good score is more than 500.

Brian Giesbrecht from Canada: The Cultural Appropriation Controversy

The controversy surrounding “cultural appropriation” has received a huge amount of media attention. The newspapers are full of it, and CBC has seemingly endless panel discussions on the subject. Good people have lost their jobs, and abject apologies have been issued for offending a principle that was unknown until a few short years ago. 

The fact is that none of these things should have happened. “Cultural appropriation” is an idea that at one time would have been summarily dismissed for what it is: a bad idea. I can write what I want to write. Readers can read what ever they want. You can decide not to read my work, you can praise it, or you can criticize it. Case closed.

GWPF Newsletter: New Coal Revolution May Change Everything

The New-Generation Coal Boom

In this newsletter:

1) New Coal Revolution May Change Everything
Nikkei Asian Review, 6 June 2017 
 
2) The New-Generation Coal Boom
The Australian, 25 January 2017 

GWPF Newsletter: EU’s CO2 Emissions On The Rise, Blaming Cold Winter

The Most Important Weather Forecast Of All Time:

D-Day, June 6, 1944

In this newsletter:

1) LOL: EU’s CO2 Emissions On The Rise, Blaming Cold Winter
Energy Live News, 6 June 2017
 
2) 80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Show That Modern Warming Isn’t Global, Isn’t Unprecedented And Isn’t Remarkable
No Tricks Zone, 29 May 2017

David Skilling: House of Cards

The fifth series of House of Cards was released this week on Netflix, although it is not clear how we should distinguish between the fictional series and the non-fiction (perhaps science fiction?) occurring in the real-life White House.  But a house of cards remains an apt metaphor for housing markets around the world, and particularly in small advanced economies, which are deeply exposed to the process of interest rate normalisation.

In a previous edition of this note, I discussed the particular challenges that QE by large economy central banks has imposed on smaller economies, and particularly on the eight small advanced economies outside the Eurozone: Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Israel, Hong Kong, Singapore and New Zealand.  As price takers, each of these small economies has had to set monetary policy in a way that reflects the world interest rate (even more so for economies that are directly pegged to other currencies, Denmark to the euro and Hong Kong to the USD). 
Read more

GWPF Newsletter: Stock Markets Hit Record High After Trump Pulls Out Of Paris Deal

1) Stock Markets Hit Record High After Trump Pulls Out Of Paris Deal

Daily Express, 2 June 2017

2) Trump & The Markets: Why Are Investors Not Betting On Climate Change?
Scott Adams blog, 2 June 2017

3) Inside The ‘Resistance’ To The Paris Climate Accord And How They Held Trump To His Promise
Daily Caller, 2 June 2017

4) Nigel Lawson: Unilateral Decarbonisation Is A Miserable Fantasy
The Daily Telegraph, 3 June 2017

5) Rupert Darwall: Why Trump Is Right To Ditch The Paris Agreement
The Spectator, 2 June 2017

6) Paris Climate Withdrawal Re-Triggers Global Warming Doomsday Cult
The Federalist, 2 June 2017

Matt Ridley from the UK: Nobody knows how best to tackle obesity

Even optimists admit that some things are undoubtedly getting worse: things like traffic jams, apostrophe use — and obesity. The fattening of the human race, even in middle-income countries, is undeniable. “Despite sustained efforts to tackle childhood obesity, one in three adolescents is still estimated to be overweight or obese in Europe,” said a report last week to the World Health Organisation. That means more diabetes and possibly a reversal of the recent slow fall in age-adjusted cancer and heart disease death rates.

Perhaps we should remind ourselves first that it is a good problem to have, a symptom of abundance. 

GWPF Newsletter: US Power Producers Switch Back To Cheaper Coal

German Conservatives Call For Radical Change Of Climate Policy

In this newsletter:

1) US Power Producers Switch Back To Cheaper Coal
Reuters, 5 June 2017 
 
2) German Conservatives Call For Radical Change Of Germany’s Climate Policy

NZCPR Weekly: Freedom of Thought

Dear NZCPR Reader,   

This week, we question the wisdom of State sector organisations subscribing to ‘biculturalism’, since this radical race-based political agenda challenges the sovereignty of the Crown, our NZCPR Guest Commentator Professor Barend Vlaardingerbroek has examined the proposed Education Council’s proposed Code of Conduct for teachers and believes it breaches their fundamental human rights, and this week’s poll asks whether you believe bicultural policies should be removed from all State agencies.

*To read the newsletter click HERE.
*To register for the NZCPR Weekly mailing list, click HERE.  

Stephen Franks: How many naggers could we measure and dump?

The Times of London reports on correlations between teen pregnancy rates and cuts on spending for teen pregnancy advising and free contraception.

The wonderful news –

“Teenage pregnancy rates have been reduced because of government cuts to spending on sex education and birth control for young women, according to a study that challenges conventional wisdom. 

The state’s efforts to teach adolescents about sex and make access to contraceptives easier may have encouraged risky behaviour rather than curbed it, the research suggests.”

Karl du Fresne: The totalitarianism that taints public debate

Free speech is a cornerstone of democracy, but we can never take it for granted. On polarising issues, its limits are constantly tested.

Dr Lance O’Sullivan got up on stage at a Kaitaia screening of the controversial anti-vaccination documentary Vaxxed last week and told the audience that their attendance would cause babies to die.

Nicholas Kerr: US health care problems – universal health care is not the solution

Shortly after Bernie Sanders’s recent and weakly argued Twitter pic in support of universal health care, I photoshopped it into a similarly weak counter-argument and Tweeted back. However, it’s a serious topic and deserves a more thorough response.

It goes without saying that the U.S. health care system is far from perfect. But the focus should be addressing the problems without throwing out what’s exceptional about it.