The calculation of “colleagues with backroom political
experience”, suggests that Labour will not garner sufficient votes to rule in
its own rights. But on present polling and trends, it has the best chance to
form the next government.
The analysis disappointed me. I felt sure I had sensed in the political breeze, a larger swing of the pendulum. However, if one accepts the bad news, one can then set about to remedy the situation.
History is a teacher.
In 1994 – when it became clear that Prime Minister Jim Bolger
was going to replace First Past the Post and introduce MMP as the system to
select the government in the forthcoming 1996 elections, it also became clear
that my safe National seat of Hobson would evaporate. I would then be dependent
on Mr Bolger for favourable List placing to return to Parliament for a fourth
term. The erudite King Country farmer
made it clear that was not likely.
Predicated on the following extract from Wikipedia (which I
had no part in editing), if readers accept that the team which worked with me, understood
and had done the maths prior to forming RoC/Conservatives, perhaps that
concession might be extended to the contemporaneous analysis which we present below
at, “Back to the Present”.
“Meurant often clashed with the leadership of the
National Party over Maori policy, (and) in September 1994, decided
to break away from National and to establish his own party, adopting the name
"Right of Centre" (or "ROC"). The acronym represented
Meurant's right-wing economic philosophy of privatisation of government assets.”
“Meurant held the view that the new MMP formula for
delivering parliamentary seats precluded any single party from achieving an
outright majority (except in the most exceptional circumstances).
“Misguidedly, he anticipated that Prime Minister Bolger
and his trusted aide, Finance Minister Bill Birch, would recognise the
mathematical inevitability of the MMP formula and embrace Meurant and the
former National party conspirators (former Lt colonel Rob Munro x MP
Invercargill & Graeme Reeves, lawyer x MP Miramar), in a post-election
coalition.
“But Meurant had mis-read the animosity Bolger had for
him that, in the final analysis, condemned Meurant’ party to oblivion.
“Though history did vindicate Meurant’ belief that the
MMP formula would not deliver an outright winning party at the polls.
“In fact, in 1996, the Bolger government finally accepted
the inevitability of Meurant’s claim and reached a pact with ACT, the second
political party to be formed under MMP.” (1)
Back to the present.
“Except in the most exceptional circumstances”, transpired
in 2019 when a tragedy for the country produced a fortuitous event for Jacinda
Ardern, elevating her to international acclaim as she haemorrhaged grief across
the media.
The Christchurch massacres, followed as they were by another
world profiling tragedy; the White Island volcano eruption shortly after the
2019 General election, cemented her as a new world face.
Back home, an extended period of No COVID provided another
fortuitous twist which allowed the Government to entrench a rule of fear. Faceless bureaucrats intimidated thousands,
with their worst-case scenarios.
Like sheep, New Zealanders paid fealty to this new Icon (in
this case herdswoman), as she ruled with impervious arrogance often refusing
media scrutiny. (2)
Meanwhile, “Rome burned”, or in our case, commercial activity plummeted as the
aspirations of small to medium business owners were trashed.
It took Sir John Key to shake the sheep from dreamtime when
he proclaimed: “We need to break free of the hermit kingdom and stop ruling by
fear on Covid-19,” (3) while
a blog by business tycoon High Perrett on “Maorification” (4) seemed to encourage a
change from obsequies acceptance of Labour’s policies of dividing the nation on
the basis of ethnicity. (5)
These recent contributions by successful profile New
Zealanders, seem to have provided a turning point for the pendulum of power. I
thought I felt in the winds of change but based on recent polling (includes
Morgan poll 1 November 2021 and political experience of sage but hitherto
silent contributors), it seems the breeze is yet a zephyr.
******************
Labour –
Voter numbers:
The Party vote rose from 956,184 in 2017 to 1,443,546 in 2020. 1 Nov 21 poll 39.5% down from 50% Election Night. A loss of 303,145 votes from the election total of 1,443,546.
Current allocation:
46 electorate seats, 19 list seats = 65 total.
November Roy Morgan poll:
39.5%.
Labour:
39.5% =51 MPs.
Translation:
20 Electorate seats lost i.e., from 46 to 26
Outcome:
26 electorate + 25 list (which is what the MMP formula delivers) = 51 seats total.
On the assumption that the lost voters gave “two ticks” to Labour in 2019, taking only the General (not Maori) seats, that is a loss of 5052 constituent votes per General electorate.
Assumption:
Maori party to hold their Electorate seat, given the “favours” bestowed on them by this Government
If the General Election was now.
Even if NONE of these votes go to the second placed
candidate then any Labour Electorate MP with a majority of less than 5052 is
“gone”.
Hamilton East – Strange – 2973 majority – GONE
Hutt Sth – Anderson – 3777 majority – GONE
Ilam – Pallett – 3463 majority – GONE
Maungakeikei – Radhakrishnan - 635 majority – GONE
Nelson – Boyack - 4525 majority – GONE
New Plymouth – Bennett – 2555 majority – Gone
Northcote – Halbert – 2534 majority – GONE
Northland – Prime – 163 majority – Gone
Otaki – Ngobi – 2988 majority – GONE
Rangitata – Luxton – 4408 majority – GONE
Tukituki – Lorck – 1590 majority – GONE
Upper Harbour - Walters – 2392 majority – Gone
Whangarei – Henderson – 431 majority – GONE
Minimum probability: 13
Constituency seats lost, all to National i.e., returning to their usual home.
However, if ALL of the 5052 lost Labour votes go to the second
placed candidate then a majority of more than 10104 is required for Labour
Member to survive.
East Coast – Allen – 6331 majority – GONE
Hamilton West – Sharma – 6267 majority – GONE
Napier – Nash – majority 5856 – GONE
Takanini – Leavasa – 7724 majority GONE
Wiararapa – McAnulty – 6545 majority GONE
West Coast-Tasman – O’Connor – 6208 majority GONE
Whanganui – Lewis – 8191 majority GONE
Maximum probability: Another
7 electorate seats to National giving a total of 20 Electorate seats.
Plus!
Auckland Central - Swarbrick 1068 Majority over Labour goes
to National with a majority of 2196
That gives maximum seat gain for National of 21
Outcome:
Labour with 26 Electorate seats and 25 List seats (i.e.,33%
party vote) = 51@ seats Total.
******************
ACT – The Party rose from 13,075 votes in 2017 to
219,030 in 2020.
Current allocation:
Siting on 1 electorate seat 9 list seats 7.59% of the party vote.
Roy Morgan poll:
16% - 20 MP’s
Prediction:
1 Constituency 19 list seats
Opinion.
This rise can virtually all be attributed to Seymour’s stand
on the “Gun Confiscation Law” which drew the recreation shooters into his fold.
The Euthanasia Bill may have contributed some and also the proposed vehicle
“Ute Tax”.
However, much of his support appears to have come from
reaction to Government actions rather than his good ideas, and, is also
attributable to the performance by National in Opposition which most former
Tories regards as – disappointing at the very least.
Outcome: 1
Constituency 19 list seats
**************
National - The party vote 1,152,075 in 2017 dropping
to 738,275 in 2020
Current situation:
Sitting on 23 Electorate seats 10 list seats = 33 total.
Roy Morgan poll 26%
33 seats.
Minimum prediction:
National gain 13 constituency from Labour = 26 Electorate seats.
MMP formula provides 33 seats for 26% which translates into 3 in excess of 120 seats to produces a 123 seat Parliament (corrected to 122 seats when wasted votes removed from calculation).
Maximum prediction:
National gain of 21 constituency seats (1 Green, 20 Labour) 23+21 = 44
Outcome:
131 seat parliament
Opinion.
National’s poor performance can largely be put down to the
incompetence of its Parliamentary team at the replacement of Simon Bridges with
Todd Muller whose ego appeared to surpass his ability and had to be in turn
replaced with Judith “Crusher “Collins.
This was a complete farce and the electorate caned National
for that debacle. Many today still blame that incompetence for the fact the
current Labour government in power. However, many will not forgive and forget
National’s pathetic behaviour.
National’s failure to clearly articulate its opposition to
policies of Labour’s apartheid policies which Muriel Newman brands as dividing
our nation (6) and the
deafening silence on Labours strategy of COVID rule of fear, and its abuse of
legal process (7), is compounded
by the view of many, that Judith Collins is not a likeable leader.
The bright light on the horizon for National is that they
will claim back the 19 constituency seats the lost to Labour and maybe more.
There is a strong possibility National could become a constituency party with
no list seats at the 2023 election
*************
Greens – Party vote rose from 126,443 in 2017 to
226,757 in 2020 – won Auckland Central.
Note: In 2014 they received 257,356. The Metiria Turei benefit fraud debacle cost
them dearly in 2017.
Current situation:
Sitting on 1 electorate seat 9 list seats 7.86% of the party vote.
Roy Morgan poll:
10.5%
Prediction:
13 MP’s = 1 Constituency 14 list seats.
Opinion.
Supported by alternative life-stylers or the young who are
not income focused or dependent (still living off their parents); the latter
consideration probably the reason Greens want the voting age lowered to
16. Or welfare beneficiaries.
A drift from “save the environment’ to “save humanity (example:
bring refuges from war ISIS ravaged zones), may have lost support of the older
“Blue Green” vote of Fendalton, Karori and Remuera.
What’s left of save the environment presents to many as:
“Kill the cows and sheep, save the trees as carbon sinks, everything has to run
on electricity of which we don’t have enough because coal and gas and oil
extraction must be banned.”
Outcome:
On present polling, Greens could form a centre left
government with Labour.
*****************
Maori Party.
Maori Party 1 electorate seat 1 list seat = 2 seats party
vote 30580 in 2017 essentially static to 33632 in 2020 (31,850 in 2014)
Rawiri Waititi defeated Tamati Coffey, Labour for the
Waiariki seat bringing two MPs into Parliament.
Given the Maori party vote is static at a bit over 30,000
they must win a constituency seat to survive.
Outcome:
Likely
to retain Waiariki to hold two seats i.e., one electorate + one List.
***************
NZ First Out of Parliament.
Party vote 186,706 in 2017 down to 75,020 in 2020.
Does not figure in the Roy Morgan poll as getting over 5%.
Opinion.
Caned in 2019 for:
From the perspective of the Right: Going with Labour rather than National in the first instance.
From the perspective of the Left: the mainstream media painted Winston Peters as the “hand brake” on Labour advancing “progressive” policies.
Can NZ First make a comeback?
Maybe, provided:
NZF is not sunk by the Serious Fraud Office Court Hearings prior to the campaign.
NZF presents as a, “One people, One country NZ First” anti-apartheid.
NZF delivers an unequivocal message of equal opportunity for all.
NZF needs to assess whether Shane Jones is an asset or a liability.
NZF needs to demonstrate that Age Shall Not Weary nor the Years Condemn.
Outcome:
Possibility:
Outside possibility 5% = 6 list seats.
Probability:
Does NOT return to Parliament.
The Rest
TOP 43,449 votes 1.51%
New Conservative 42,613 votes 1.48%
Advance NZ 28,429 votes 0.99%
Legalise Cannabis 13,329 votes 0.46%
7 others with total of 19,928 votes 0.77%
Total vote = 7.81% includes NZF 2.6%
Unless these minnows put aside the preciousness and come
together, they will all miss out. Multi
splitting of the possible 10% centre mostly conservative voters, is a proven
recipe for failure.
Ross Meurant, graduate in politics both at university and
as a Member of Parliament; formerly police inspector in charge of Auckland
spies & V.I.P. security; currently Honorary Consul for an African state,
Trustee and CEO of Russian owned commercial assets in New Zealand and has
international business interests.
References:
(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_Conservative_Party
(2) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10154999/New-Zealand-Prime-Minister-Jacinda-Ardern-storms-press-conference-vaccine-question.
(3) https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/300414808/sir-john-key-we-need-to-break-free-of-the-hermit-kingdom-and-stop-ruling-by-fear-on-covid19
(4) https://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/2021/10/hugh-perrett-open-letter-to-government.html
(5) https://www.nzcpr.com/a-step-too-far-bi-cultural-partnership/
(6) https://www.nzcpr.com/dividing-our-nation/
(7) https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126898923/covid19-rich-lister-murray-bolton-wins-right-to-bypass-miq-and-isolate-at-home
13 comments:
I agree Labour and Greens will form the next government. However, I cannot just vote for National willy nilly unless they scrap their deeply entrenched Maori agendas. For me, they have proved deeply disappointing. I will vote for anybody who, by their words and actions, actually believes in New Zealand and its citizens, undivided, equal and prosperous. This unfortunately won't happen by the time the next election comes around.
Somebody will emerge that is worth voting for at some stage.
Already, I believe we are now paying groups in society for the use and enjoyment of the natural resources which should belong to us all, such as lakes and water. I think both National and Act should have been full of indignation when He Pua pua was revealed. The same with Three Waters. I will vote for a party who is prepared to repeal all divisive legislation. Wishful thinking on my part. I am happy to be proved wrong.
The large gender bias of women voting Labour, presumably because they identify with Jacinda and her kind and caring public persona, is the key issue of the next election.
National and ACT must find a way to swing those female voters from voting purely on personality. If they don't it's a done deal - a Labour-Greens coalition. They have 1 year and 10 months and counting.....
It's far too early to be specific about the outcome and really that is little more than an indulgence. What we do know is 1 in 5 Labour Party voters no longer support Labour. That's significant. Imagine if a business lost 20% of its market share in 12 months. And let's not forget this is not because the opposition has attracted votes. Labour has lost support because of what it has done. Imagine what would happen to Labour's vote if the opposition put up an attractive alternative?
Let's also look at the new reality - Labour will need the Greens to form the next govt. There is now NO prospect that Labour will govern alone, so it's Labour/Greens. Having the Greens with even more influence than they have now will not be attractive and will be another reason why some who voted for Labour in 2020 will not do so in 2023. Next year the govt will introduce its global warming legislation to achieve its 2030 goals. That will be radical and will further fuel the fires against Labour but also against the Greens.
Then overlay the economy. Interest rates are on the rise and that will put a halt to property price inflation. It will also probably have a negative impact on the building sector which has been the driver of economic growth. It's bogus growth because it has been fueled by debt (as we saw in the 1980s prior to the 1987 crash) and does not add overseas earnings into our economy. Labour's massive spending under the guise of COVID relief is house price inflationary and is coming to an end. That will become obvious to the public and will be put down to yet another failure by the Labour Party.
If the Labour Party were to fall another 5% in the polls and the Greens were to go down to around 6-7% then it's game over for the socialists. We are a lot closer to hitting those support levels as you might think - 12 months probably.
There is also a real prospect that Ardern will leave NZ politics. She has only ever experienced adoration and will not be able to handle the hate that is now on full display by everyday folk. Last week she has had to flee an angry crowd in Whanganui, making her exit via a back entrance. Who would have imagined that a year ago?
Interesting comments and reflections of current issue.
The purpose of this post however is to focus on the calibrations which deliver electorate seats and list entitlement un MMP.
The question is: How to get the best results or outcomes 'from the MMP system'?
Maurice Williamson, Murray McCully and I all understood (what so many NZers still dont grasp), how to work the MMP system and at the 1994 Auckland Regional conference we promoted that as a strategy, National should split into two separate parties:
A List Party and an Electorate Party.
It was like trying to teach physics to monkeys.
In the stats I produce above, this "strategy" now emerges but it manifests as LIST vote for ACT and ELECTORATE vote for National.
Read the above stats again It stares us in the face as it did McCully, Williamson and me - 1994.
Birch and Bolger were either too embittered or too arrogant of just plainly not able to accept let alone understand, what they had leashed on the nation.
Their rejection of RoC - stacked as it was with former National MPs and board reps from Meat and Dairy producers, was a massive error by them (in my assessment).
That National ultimately had to accept that they could not do it alone, and locked in Prebble x ACT, is evidence to support what I write.
That National under Key and English both arrogantly pushed for the "extraordinary event" to Rule Alone - and failed is more evidence that National have been their own worst enemy.
It wasn't until Jacinda rocked up with the events identified in the article, that the most 'exceptional circumstances' arrived.
Those circumstances wont be around come next election. It is time for strategic planning. But with National's current leadership that is a fairy tale.
The second problem is: The Third party that National/ACT will need of they don't "strategize' is that a cluster of minnow parties will split the 10% middle vote and ALL will lose - including ACT National.
Someone needs to tighten up this collection
Ross Meurant
Despite the current computations I think the next election will be brutal. Jacinda Ardern, despite her fame has managed to keep her back story hidden from most of the public. Only this week I have found out she received her leadership training from the organisation that has written the template for the Great Reset. Yet earlier in the year the Government denied they had even heard of the Great Reset. She is trained by the WEF, so is her loyalty to the WEF or is it to NZ. Peters is going to create mayhem with He Puapua. It is going to be interesting in 2023. Chris Trotter penned an article this week telling Jacinda not to go to Dallas. Chris saying it is too dangerous for the PM to go to Auckland. What a state the country is in.
You raise some interesting points here Ross,
1] It will on interest to see how the Labour Constituency Candidates who are GONE in your prediction react to the realization, "that their number is up"
They have two choices to either just go through the motions tow the party line, represent the Government line to the Electorate and look for new employment in 2 years.
OR do they actually do their job and represent the "Electorates view" to Parliament, this will become particularly relevant when 3-Waters hits the agenda proper in the next few months. Given almost universal condemnation of the proposal by Councils and hence Electorates across the country, will these "GONE MP's" represent that Electorate view on the floor of the house? there by earning the respect of their constituents for opposing 3-Waters and the apartheid regime it enshrines for the future.
Do any of them have that spine? or desperation to not be GONE?
2] From your prediction it becomes obvious that for the right to "win" in 2023;
ACT should promote Party vote ACT, Candidate vote National
National should promote Party vote ACT, Candidate vote National
Now ACT may do that National never will (to their cost)
3] The wasted middle vote is a dilemma that should be addressed. Currently there are several Parties NZF TOP NNP Outdoors Conservatives puddling in this ground none individually are likely to pass the 5%, their policies while different are for the main part not incompatible, they each contain some real competent people. Maybe it is time to gather them together and form something like Jim Anderton's Alliance to try and get a "middle block" over the line?
Is that you Ross?
We need someone who has the courage to come out with a manifesto which will get rid of the appeasement of plastic part Maori elite activists and other woke extremists, get rid of climate fearmongering, wasting billions of dollars on trying to change nature, and pandering to the corrupt UN.
Get over the absolute fear of covid and start treating those infected. Fearful people accept control and have enabled the government to introduce conditions which they would not normally tolerate.
There are drugs available now which have been used successfully to treat the illness in other countries. Why not use them here. Stop trying to reinvent the wheel.
They must also introduce Binding Citizens Initiated Referenda. Admittedly it would come at a cost but probably save money in the long run. It should have the effect of reigning in sheer stupidity like 3 Waters, He Puapua and any other legislation which threatens to take away our freedoms or democracy. Allowing at least 100 days from passing legislation to enacting it with the government to stand the cost of any referenda. At present we do not have a democracy.
I would say that any party that has the bottle to get rid of the Labour Cult’s separatist agenda and repeal racist legislation would be a dead cert. There will be some unhappy activists. Tough!
Oh Lord, Ross! Labour and the Greens back again? Quite spoilt my day!
I suggest that there are many non left voters out there either irate with National for its pathetic non performance and New Zealand First for giving Labour a pathway to power.
National in particular seems to be deaf and blind that racial preference and race based legislation are completely unacceptable to many thousands of potential supporters. Are they asleep or do they just not care?
Well if the politicians won't save us then it is up to us to save ourselves. I suggest that disillusioned once-were-National voters study ACT's principles and policies. You may not agree with all of them but at least ACT shows a regard for individual liberty, free speech and all of us equal under the law.
(Right now, when you think of it, who else is there?)
Sleepers awake. Your country is going to hell in a handbasket!
Great to see such an interesting debate!
It's not just NZ - the whole world is going to Hell.
For myself (some of you may know differently), I now believe that John Key quit so suddenly because he knew what was coming. I believe the Nats have been deliberately playing stupid ever since, because they don't want to be seen to have any responsibility for the current mess, and the even greater mess that is to follow.
Labour is doing a great job of "Never letting a good crisis go to waste" - even if it is a manufactured one - but it has now become very clear to me just how many former Labour supporters have become disgusted by their continuing totalitarian power grabs. If they continue (they will), Labour will have lost a LOT of support by next election. I guess they just hope they have Total Control by then. They want to push the date back by a year, just in case...
I have to admit that, unlike a friend of mine, I didn't initially see Vaxinda for what she truly is. And I don't know how Plato could have known this so clearly, so long ago:
“This and no other is the root from
which a tyrant springs; when he
first appears he is a protector.”
Listen to Jacinda's Saturday Conference speech - (notice how old and haggard she looks one year on, and how fake she appears) - and pay attention to how often she uses the word 'protect'... The new catch word. She's a 'hero' for protecting us from the plague for so long. And of course, the Jab will protect us all!
Coff...
Clifford J: Forget about trying to herd the minnow parties together. They all have different personalities and conflicting competitive goals. Free market principles will prevail: the ones that are of most appeal will kill off the others. That's the way it works. The answer is to form a new party in the centre with a leader that appeals to the mood of the moment. That "moment" requires someone who is straight-talking - a real person with dirt under their fingernails not a celebrity or someone who has lived their life living and breathing politics.
Ross has done us a great favour by setting out a strategy which can defeat Labour and the Greens.
If you want victory set up a battle plan which will actually work - not a previous one which you hoped would work but couldn't and didn't. As another writer has suggested we need true leadership - some inspiring man or woman who can relate to the disillusioned voters out there and who can enunciate plain common sense and pragmatic polices which will unite the country and move it forward.
Older readers will remember the campaign led by Bon Jones some years ago. Now he did inspire hope for a the future and a new direction. Sadly, in spite of his New Zealand Party receiving many thousands of votes his Party gained no electorate seats under First Past the Post system.
It seems to me that in the absence of a new Party with inspiring leader we will have to work on the politicians in our immediate neighbourhood. (We should also consider whether another non left party would split the existing non left voting numbers even more.)
Perhaps a more realistic approach is to try to form alliances where we can make common cause in some areas and not cancel out each others' efforts. Ross's outline of Constituency Seats/List Seats arrangements comes to mind - although I fear some National diehards would rather go down in defeat yet again than give up some of what they have to gain an ultimate victory.
While another writer has reservations I believe that the minor parties should at least consider forming an umbrella party which will support at least some of the policies of each participant. If their combined votes can cross the party list threshold then they will at least have made a start.(Getting something in this new system would surely be better than getting nothing in the current system.)
My final suggestion for those in safe National seats. If your MP can't or won't represent your values and concerns then dump her or him and set up your own Independent candidate - someone not a career politician but someone of competence and integrity who is not accountable to Party Bosses and who will be your voice.
Now that would be a nice change in some quarters.
Thanks again for your post, Ross.
Necessary alarm bells and food for thought!
The MMP electoral system was contrived by yank academics for the new country West Germany, rigged so that the chances were extremely low that any one party could govern. New Zealand did not need such protection - we have always been capable of tipping out after 6 or 3 y any govt that is doing badly.
Better electoral systems had been proven in Australia - esp the Tasmanian system. Why Bolger didn't prefer any of them is a puzzle.
The sun always rises in the east, and sets in the west.
I have always believed that what goes around, comes around.
In this case I do fear this may not be the case much longer.
The big problem in NZ, and indeed globally, is that the populations have continued to move from country areas into cities and suburbia.
This socialisation of populations has no interest in agriculture, or of rural interests.
The future is predictable in that food will be grown in multi level car parks in cities, meat will be synthetic, the financial power base is or will shift to left wing vegetarian philanthropic individuals financing synthetic food production, and "green" living.
I predict the kiwi way, of growing your own food will be either deemed illegal, or by permit only.
Those that live outside the cities, will do so under permits, licences, and travel restrictions.
No more hobbies like boating, hunting, I, C, E, cars, motorbikes,aeroplanes.
These suburbia living populations future is changing towards political leadership by a large global hypocritical, lying, fear mongering self interested international political groups.
MAD MAX, will exist in NZ, before he does in Aussie.
The Aussies, still call a spade a spade, until they trip over it, when it becomes a "Expletive" SHOVEL.
All NZers need to pick up their "Bloody" shovels to fill this bloody great political hole, before it fills with the stench of political waste.
A great imagination!
Terry Palmer.
The change in NZ in just 12 months, is unprecedented,
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