From the new stats on Friday, the numbers look good.
People are actually arriving in a way that gives us hope around jobs and the labour crisis, around demand in the economy and for spending on things like housing.
The downside is a lot of people who watch these things are a bit suspicious of the accuracy of the numbers. The statistics department guess a bit as to how long people are going to stay.
Firstly, half of the net arrivals are from China, India and the Philippines. Do those countries provide the people we need to close the skills gap?
There were a total of 133,500 arrivals of non-New Zealanders. Only 14% of them were on resident visas. So, are they staying, or not?
Also of note were the numbers of New Zealanders that scarpered, which is 23,500. That is the largest number leaving for over a decade.
That’s basically Taupo or Masterton up and leaving. And I suspect we all know why.
Also, there were over 44,000 non-citizens who decided to leave as well.
But, and here is the important bit, the net gain could be about 65,000 and that is gold.
What we can all agree on is the migration settings of the past couple of years have been criminal and our economy has suffered because of it.
The labour crisis has been entirely avoidable. So, the great hope is this 65,000 person gain is at least, in part, the end of a long and tortuous road.
The tragedy, or irony if you like, is they arrive at about the time the country is hitting a recession. Or if we aren't in one, we are about to be. And the price and indication of that is in jobs and the large loss of them.
If you look at it with a glass half full view though, what it does appear to at least partially answer is the business around whether we are still an attraction for people moving around the world looking for a new life.
As we always say - the numbers don’t lie.
So, lets hope the stats department have them right, the people who are here have the skills we need, they are not all tourists and they don't arrive thinking the country is one thing, only to find out that it has changed dramatically of late and it's turned into something they don't like.
Fingers crossed.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings
There were a total of 133,500 arrivals of non-New Zealanders. Only 14% of them were on resident visas. So, are they staying, or not?
Also of note were the numbers of New Zealanders that scarpered, which is 23,500. That is the largest number leaving for over a decade.
That’s basically Taupo or Masterton up and leaving. And I suspect we all know why.
Also, there were over 44,000 non-citizens who decided to leave as well.
But, and here is the important bit, the net gain could be about 65,000 and that is gold.
What we can all agree on is the migration settings of the past couple of years have been criminal and our economy has suffered because of it.
The labour crisis has been entirely avoidable. So, the great hope is this 65,000 person gain is at least, in part, the end of a long and tortuous road.
The tragedy, or irony if you like, is they arrive at about the time the country is hitting a recession. Or if we aren't in one, we are about to be. And the price and indication of that is in jobs and the large loss of them.
If you look at it with a glass half full view though, what it does appear to at least partially answer is the business around whether we are still an attraction for people moving around the world looking for a new life.
As we always say - the numbers don’t lie.
So, lets hope the stats department have them right, the people who are here have the skills we need, they are not all tourists and they don't arrive thinking the country is one thing, only to find out that it has changed dramatically of late and it's turned into something they don't like.
Fingers crossed.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings
3 comments:
Is it golden? Or are we just a stepping stone? Are we attracting permanently those who are intelligent, skilled, energetic, unencumberd by dependants? Will their children continue the tradition or switch to the benefit lifestyle demonstrated to them as available? Our economy seems to depend on forever building houses for immigrants. If the flow stops what will all the less driven kiwi builders do? Pacifica/ maori/KiangaOra may not provide sufficient housing demand.
At the moment we have one of the worst balance of payments in the developed world, we make Greece look good. So will these thousands of new arrivals increase our exports? Very unlikely they will make any difference, instead requiring yet more imports to build them housing, supply transport etc.
So the dream of high immigrantion will lead to an increase in our already abysmal balance of payments. What a great plan for the next generation to deal with.
i think NZ needs to do some soul-searching and decide the purpose of immigration. this will avoid the current problem of 'if you don't know where to do, any road will take you there'.
if the intent is bringing in high tax revenue, i don't understand why encouraging one person with 120K with a spouse and 4 kids is better than a couple pulling in 110K each with no kids.
if the intent is to plug a gap in a specific profession (drivers or podiatrists), why is there no predefined limit on numbers and period.
if the whole idea is to create a balance (which eoi points was for), why is smc queue so much longer than green list?
if the system is being gamed via study visas, why not remove the concept of work-while-study, post-study work visas & extra points for local degrees? why not simply provide a 6-month window post completion to look for jobs processed via aewv category?
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