The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll is out and, like the other latest polls, it has shown a sharp slump in Labour’s numbers and now matches all the other polls showing NZ First has crossed the dreaded 5% threshold. Winston’s back, and we are looking at a change of government.
National and ACT are able to form a Government on their own. But only just. Based on this poll, just a small shift in these numbers could see Winston Peters holding the balance of power yet again – with Christopher Luxon needing both ACT and NZ First to form a government.
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Party Support Change from last month
National 34.9% up 1.6
Labour 27.1% down 4.0
ACT 13.0% down 0.2
Green 12.0% up 3.1
NZ First 5.8% up 2.5
M?ori 2.5% down 2.5
Other 4.8% down 0.4
National increases 1.6 points on last month to 34.9% while Labour drops 4.0 points to 27.1%. ACT is down 0.2 points to 13.0% while the Greens are up 3.1 points to 12.0%.
The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.8% (+2.5 points), the Maori Party on 2.5% (-2.5 points), Vision NZ on 1.1% (+1.1 points), TOP on 1.0% (+0.7 points), New Conservatives on 0.6% (+0.2 points), Outdoors and Freedom on 0.5% (+0.5 points), and Democracy NZ on 0.1% (-1.8 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
Taxpayers Union
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National is up 1 seat on last month to 44 while Labour is down 7 seats to 34. ACT is steady on 17 seats while the Greens pick up 3 seats to a total of 15. The Maori Party is down 4 seats on last month to 3. NZ First re-enters Parliament on these numbers with 7 seats.
Taxpayers’ Union
David Seymour’s petulant attack is looking increasingly like desperation. Regular readers will know that desperation is a stinky cologne.
In the preferred PM stakes, Christopher Luxon has finally drawn level with Chris Hipkins. He should be well in front but he isn’t.
In the Preferred Prime Minister stakes, Chris Hipkins is up 2 points on last month to 25% while Christopher Luxon is up 5 points to 25%. This is the first time the two have been tied in our poll.
David Seymour is up 1 point to 7% while Winston Peters is also on 7% (up 3 points). 5% still prefer Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister (down 3 points) while Chloë Swarbrick is up 2 points to 4%.
Nicola Willis is on 2.8%, James Shaw is on 0.9%, Chris Bishop, Marmara Davidson and Leighton Baker are all on 0.8%, and Matt King is on 0.3%.
Taxpayers’ Union
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With Winston and Seymour both on 7% for preferred PM you can imagine the cries of impotent rage emanating from Seymour’s office.
This poll shows the folly of David Seymour attacking Winston Peters. It looks like both Act and NZ First are going to be needed to join with National to oust this shambolic Labour Government.
With these figures National should go into a coalition with Act and NZ First – it would make for a stronger stable government.
The other stand-out detail is the state of the hapless minor parties:
The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.8% (+2.5 points), the Maori Party on 2.5% (-2.5 points), Vision NZ on 1.1% (+1.1 points), TOP on 1.0% (+0.7 points), New Conservatives on 0.6% (+0.2 points), Outdoors and Freedom on 0.5% (+0.5 points), and Democracy NZ on 0.1% (-1.8 points).
Taxpayers’ Union
No amount of continuing to huff on the hopium pipe is going to get these folk over the line. Matt King needs to pack up, and fold his party, what remains of it, into a party that can make it across the 5% threshold. On these numbers, it looks like Matt King’s mum isn’t voting for him any more. The same goes for the other minnows. Give it up: you aren’t going to get there.
The polls are aligned, the direction is now clear, there will be a change of government in October.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. This article was first published HERE
2 comments:
There is no guarantee that Winston won't go with Labour. Assuming half of his voters are naturally centre-right, why on earth haven't they learned their lesson from 2017 (and not to mention during the Clark Government years).
I also disagree with the writer about NZ First contributing to a "...stronger stable government." Again, this is based on Winston destabilising nearly every government he's been involved with. Mainly because Winston only cares about Winston.
Ask any of the 44% of 2017 voters who voted for a National Government if you think I'm wrong.
'M?ori 2.5% down 2.5'
i bet TU will be served the hate crime notice on monday :)
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