And we ended up agreeing on a $5 wager as to whether or not Winston Peters would be back in Parliament after the election.
I said $5 he won’t. Murray said $5 he will.
Now I don’t know if Murray has a hotline to the outfits that do the political polls - because, if he does, I’ll claim insider trading - but, since making the bet, another political poll has come out giving NZ First more than five percent support.
This latest one is the Taxpayers Union one and it has NZ First party vote support at 5.8 percent. That’s a jump of 2.5 percent. And I think we can safely say that it’s not a rogue poll because this is the third poll in a row that puts NZ First over the five percent threshold.
So, if this was election day, I’d be handing over my $5 to Murray. And, if these polls are anything to go by, Murray can probably start spending that $5 because it’s looking more and more like a pretty safe bet. It’s looking more and more that Winston Peters and NZ First will be back in Parliament.
We probably shouldn’t be all that surprised -on several fronts.
For starters, Winston Peters and NZ First are a bit like the Crusaders, aren’t they? Not always convincing at the start but, at the business end of things, they take things up a notch and get across the line.
And, as long as there are people like Murray, that’s what NZ First will continue to do.
The other reason we shouldn’t be surprised is the fact that so many people just have no idea who they’re going to vote for this year.
In fact, it’s deeper than that. People don’t know who they want to vote for. And there’s a difference. Because, if you believe in democracy and all that, you’ll eventually give some party your vote.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean you want to vote for them. But you’ve got to vote for some party, so you pick the best from a bad bunch.
Which is how so many people are feeling at the moment. And I reckon that’s why we’re seeing NZ First popping up again over the five percent mark in these political polls.
You’ve got people thinking they don’t want Labour again. Some are thinking they’d like to vote National but they don’t really get Christopher Luxon - although, to be fair, he is now neck-and-neck with Chris Hipkins in personal popularity according to this poll that came out yesterday.
Then you’ve got people who can’t bring themselves to vote Green or ACT. So what do they do? Opportunities Party? Nah. They’re not interested in the other teeny-tiny parties, either. Brian Tamaki, your new Christian party, the freedom fighters. No thank you.
So where do these people go? They get on the bus to familiarity. That’s where they go. Better the devil you know. Even if they remember how Winston Peters held the country to ransom in 1996.
It was our first MMP election - the 12th of October 1996. And after the election night result came through, it was weeks before he settled on going into coalition with Jim Bolger’s National Party.
So these pro-Winny people seem to be willing to forget about all that. Or maybe it’s so long ago, that they get all nostalgic about it.
But he was still at it in 2017 when not even Labour knew he was going to go into coalition with them until he announced it on television. Talk about a circus. And it looks like the ringleader of that circus is bringing his show to town all over again.
Don’t get me wrong. I actually like Winston Peters. I like him for his sense of humour. I like him for his sense of style. And I really like the fact that he knows the ins-and-outs of Parliament. He knows how it works. He knows the rules. He’s old school on that front - and I like that.
But, man alive, he’s had his day - hasn’t he? Well, not necessarily it seems. Not according yesterday's poll. And the comeback most people probably thought would never happen is looking more and more likely.
John MacDonald is the Canterbury Mornings host on Newstalk ZB Christchurch. This article was first published HERE
This latest one is the Taxpayers Union one and it has NZ First party vote support at 5.8 percent. That’s a jump of 2.5 percent. And I think we can safely say that it’s not a rogue poll because this is the third poll in a row that puts NZ First over the five percent threshold.
So, if this was election day, I’d be handing over my $5 to Murray. And, if these polls are anything to go by, Murray can probably start spending that $5 because it’s looking more and more like a pretty safe bet. It’s looking more and more that Winston Peters and NZ First will be back in Parliament.
We probably shouldn’t be all that surprised -on several fronts.
For starters, Winston Peters and NZ First are a bit like the Crusaders, aren’t they? Not always convincing at the start but, at the business end of things, they take things up a notch and get across the line.
And, as long as there are people like Murray, that’s what NZ First will continue to do.
The other reason we shouldn’t be surprised is the fact that so many people just have no idea who they’re going to vote for this year.
In fact, it’s deeper than that. People don’t know who they want to vote for. And there’s a difference. Because, if you believe in democracy and all that, you’ll eventually give some party your vote.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean you want to vote for them. But you’ve got to vote for some party, so you pick the best from a bad bunch.
Which is how so many people are feeling at the moment. And I reckon that’s why we’re seeing NZ First popping up again over the five percent mark in these political polls.
You’ve got people thinking they don’t want Labour again. Some are thinking they’d like to vote National but they don’t really get Christopher Luxon - although, to be fair, he is now neck-and-neck with Chris Hipkins in personal popularity according to this poll that came out yesterday.
Then you’ve got people who can’t bring themselves to vote Green or ACT. So what do they do? Opportunities Party? Nah. They’re not interested in the other teeny-tiny parties, either. Brian Tamaki, your new Christian party, the freedom fighters. No thank you.
So where do these people go? They get on the bus to familiarity. That’s where they go. Better the devil you know. Even if they remember how Winston Peters held the country to ransom in 1996.
It was our first MMP election - the 12th of October 1996. And after the election night result came through, it was weeks before he settled on going into coalition with Jim Bolger’s National Party.
So these pro-Winny people seem to be willing to forget about all that. Or maybe it’s so long ago, that they get all nostalgic about it.
But he was still at it in 2017 when not even Labour knew he was going to go into coalition with them until he announced it on television. Talk about a circus. And it looks like the ringleader of that circus is bringing his show to town all over again.
Don’t get me wrong. I actually like Winston Peters. I like him for his sense of humour. I like him for his sense of style. And I really like the fact that he knows the ins-and-outs of Parliament. He knows how it works. He knows the rules. He’s old school on that front - and I like that.
But, man alive, he’s had his day - hasn’t he? Well, not necessarily it seems. Not according yesterday's poll. And the comeback most people probably thought would never happen is looking more and more likely.
John MacDonald is the Canterbury Mornings host on Newstalk ZB Christchurch. This article was first published HERE
2 comments:
Incidentally who is sponsoring the advertising countering Winston on TVNZ?
I wasn't certain about Winston until I saw the posting on Waikanae Watch today featuring "The impact of the Therapeutics Products Act on NZ's GE -free Dream'.
Winston s is the only party not supporting this disturbing trend.The 50% of the population who use supplements among others will possibly be very concerned about this,
Also the protestors at last years parliamentary protest were once again condemned on main news TVNZ last evening, as a small minority who were the products of misinformation.
Actually a proportion of them were suffering from debilitating conditions starting directly after their COVID vaccinations or had lost their livelihoods from lock- downs. Winston was the only one to visit these people.
He has promised he won't go with Labour.
Thank a Deity for Winston Peters. Who the hell are we gonna vote for if not him? Almost everyone else has disappointed us while Mr. Peters has had a consistent message, one NZ for New Zealanders. All the bullshit is put to bed if we treat all NZer's as one people. If the tide of productivity rises, we all rise with the tide. No reward without effort, no gravy train for selected people. Love for all, not spite and the division of racist or class entitlement and greed.
Labour are toast and if Mr. Peters hitches his wagon to Labour, I will personally seek him out and harangue him very unpleasantly.
David Seymour better get used to the idea of working collaboratively with all elected partners.
MC
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