"A goal of eliminating community transmission of the pandemic virus causing covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is achievable and sustainable for some jurisdictions using non-pharmaceutical interventions and will be facilitated by the introduction of effective vaccines".
Elimination proved not to be "achievable and sustainable" in any jurisdiction throughout the entire world. It was not "facilitated" by the introduction of vaccines. NZ now has one of the highest rates of Covid infection, even though practically everyone is vaccinated:
Click image to view
Here's another line that has not "aged" well in Baker's BMJ paper, "One of the perceived barriers to applying a vigorous response, such as elimination, to the covid-19 pandemic is the belief that this might sacrifice the economy & ultimately result in more hardship & negative health effects. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the opposite is true". In fact, the IMF now ranks NZ as the worst country in the world apart from Equatorial Guinea in terms of projected 2024 GDP growth. Our current economic problems are a direct result of our slow opening up as elimination was relentlessly pursed way past its sell-by date. The slavish and futile adherence to pursuing elimination as a "sustainable" strategy (though it was a great short-run strategy when little was known about the virus and vaccines weren't available in 2020) by PM Hipkins, who was "Covid-19 Response Minister", resulted in massive borrowing & spending, $50 billion of RBNZ money printing and plummeting GDP ranking.
The billions lost due to the futile long-run pursuit of elimination cost NZ so much money that our entire health-care system has now been thrown into peril due to lack of investment. The PM caused our current economic malaise. It's not even a matter of debate.
Sources:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4907
Elimination proved not to be "achievable and sustainable" in any jurisdiction throughout the entire world. It was not "facilitated" by the introduction of vaccines. NZ now has one of the highest rates of Covid infection, even though practically everyone is vaccinated:
Click image to view
Here's another line that has not "aged" well in Baker's BMJ paper, "One of the perceived barriers to applying a vigorous response, such as elimination, to the covid-19 pandemic is the belief that this might sacrifice the economy & ultimately result in more hardship & negative health effects. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the opposite is true". In fact, the IMF now ranks NZ as the worst country in the world apart from Equatorial Guinea in terms of projected 2024 GDP growth. Our current economic problems are a direct result of our slow opening up as elimination was relentlessly pursed way past its sell-by date. The slavish and futile adherence to pursuing elimination as a "sustainable" strategy (though it was a great short-run strategy when little was known about the virus and vaccines weren't available in 2020) by PM Hipkins, who was "Covid-19 Response Minister", resulted in massive borrowing & spending, $50 billion of RBNZ money printing and plummeting GDP ranking.
The billions lost due to the futile long-run pursuit of elimination cost NZ so much money that our entire health-care system has now been thrown into peril due to lack of investment. The PM caused our current economic malaise. It's not even a matter of debate.
Sources:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4907
Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi from where this article was sourced.
6 comments:
Yet another academic who talks rot, yet is fawned over by the media.
Everything Baker promised came to nought. Has he ever gone back and looked at his predictions to see just how wrong they were? Of course not, because that would show him up to be an incompetent and false prophet who clearly doesn't understand how viruses operate and how mRNA vaccines work, or don't work actually.
The health and wellbeing of NZ and the World in general has never been in worse hands with people like Baker, Bloomfield & Wiles in charge.
He'll probably get a knighthood, as per his mate Ashley, even if National get in. Luxon is in awe to these people.
If the graph is accumulative and flat topped it implies no new cases except those not diagnosed (and so presumably very mild)??
Experts have a duty of care. They can be held responsible for negligence. For example, if you are an engineer, and you design a bridge negligently, and it collapses on the first day of use killing people, you could be held liable.
QUESTION! Was Professor Baker negligent in his advice to conduct a Zero Covid Cult? Did this insane policy meet basic “duty of care” considerations for a so-called “expert”?
For the record, my view is that the Zero Covid Cult was reckless, negligent and extremely damaging.
Should Professor Baker should be given an orange jumpsuit?
Accountability is important.
Do not confuse a government brought and paid for SHILL an expert of anything except government propaganda.
When I was a chemistry student in the 1970s we were told, by a professor of physical science that medicine was not a science. The prof. was an old school Oxford graduate.
At the same time medical students were told in lectures 'they should dress smartly because they were the cream of society !'
Do these people now have delusions of grandeur and can pronounce life and death decisions based on fake science with impunity, over the rest of us grubby society ?
My contempt for this collection of scumbags has deepened. Are they ever going to made accountable for their arrogant incompetence ?
Anon - 'Accountability is important.'
You are showing your age if you truely believe this still a reality in our modern world.
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