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It’s desperate times for Labour as New Zealanders’ votes appear to be solidifying with just 10 days left until election day, the latest 1News Verian poll suggests.
It may also be wise for National leader Christopher Luxon to put New Zealand First leader Winston Peters’ number on speed dial, with the poll showing Luxon will need New Zealand First to help form a government.
Both major parties are steady in the party vote, with 36% for National and 26% for Labour.
Also steady since last week’s 1News Verian poll is the Green Party on 13%, New Zealand First on 6% and Te Paati Maaori on 2%.
However, the ACT Party has dropped two points to 10%.
It means National would have 46 seats and ACT would have 13 seats, bringing Christopher Luxon’s “preferred” coalition partnership up short with 59 seats, two shy of the required 61 for a majority. New Zealand First’s eight seats would round its numbers out to 67, a comfortable majority that would be reasonably by-election-proof.
On the left, Labour’s 33 seats along with the Greens’ 17 and Te Pati Maori’s three would come up short at just 53 seats in total.
1News
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Luxon then delivers a big fat lie, showing clearly his own desperation. It also reflects the cosy little working relationship he and David Seymour have developed only for that all to be put at risk by Act’s faltering campaign:
Luxon has warned the public of the possibility of New Zealand First entering into a deal with the left bloc, saying both Peters and Labour leader Chris Hipkins could reverse on their refusals to work with one another. But with even NZ First’s numbers, the left bloc would have only a tenuous majority on 61, based on the poll.
The poll also showed New Zealanders were gradually making up their minds about who they would vote for, with the don’t know / refused to answer portion on 10%, down one point on the last poll.
1News
NZ First and Winston Peters have made it abundantly clear that they WILL NOT be going with Labour; the first time they’ve ever done this. It shows the desperation of Luxon, with his party’s own poll numbers slowly sinking or static. It is astonishing that with the worst government in living memory, they aren’t even approaching 40% or even over it.
National’s problem is that their pitch to the electorate is that they will be less shit than Labour, which means actually asking voters to continue voting for shit…just less of it.
Christopher Luxon has finally managed to get in front of Chris Hipkins in the preferred PM stakes. But what is more amusing is that Winston Peters is ahead of David Seymour.
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Those 2 million voters that Liz Gunn is claiming as her own still seem to be sticking with their secret plan of telling no one who they are voting for. Her dishonesty and crazy claims are just sad and deluded.
The freedom parties need to face the fact that they have failed. Even against the worst government in living memory, it is clear that they are going to cause around 5% of the vote to be utterly wasted. They need to say rather loudly that they are quitting.
I expect National and Act to drop again next week. David Seymour’s master plan of attacking NZ First and Winston Peters is looking like costing him bigly.
National should not really be celebrating. Their campaign has been lacklustre, and it is an indictment that they aren’t over 40% and that Christopher Luxon has only now just managed to creep in front of Chris Hipkins.
Imagine the mirth if Act drops below NZ First. The coalition negotiations are also going to be funny as Winston Peters is leading him in the PPM stakes. It’s hilarious really.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.
6 comments:
Why is it so close? What is wrong.with people?
Anonymous at 9.01 your comment is ambiguous and surely we all realise that there is a wide spectrum that we fall onto in different places. So let's live and let live while hoping our point of view finds favour.
I am rapt to read this above as that's my point of view and I'm hoping that NZF get more votes than grasping ACT. They have shot themselves in the foot with their greedy, undemocratic attitude.
And as for National bringing out Top Gun JK to speak for them I predict that will backfire as well. These idiots don't realise how much people despise the things they did and will never forgive them. JK lied about GST not going up and also pumped immigration and the housing market and initiated UNDRIP to set those scenes to be as ugly as they are today.
This is a delicious scenario with ACT and NZF and the most fun part of the election.
MC
I will vote ACT as this party has put in the most work to devise policy and its aspirants are intelligent and knowledgeable - and brave to 'tell it like it is' Winston is good and he has wonderful Shane and Casey, but they have not done nearly as much preparation to govern. The only thing I hold against Seymour is his ugly disparagement of Winston. I cannot fathom how such an able man can be so stupid in this one respect.
It seems to me that if you deduct the % for the minor parties that won’t enter parliament then a combination of National and Act do not need NZF to form a majority government. Come on Cam you are better than this.
I concur MC.
I no longer trust National/Act who I have always supported in the past. Those days are gone.
My preferred party won't make the 5% or secure an electorate seat and as I don't want my vote REALLOCATED, and I want to vote, I am going to swallow a rat and party vote NZF.
They are confronting apartheid masquerading as co-governance, the plandemic and the infiltration of corporate globalists within our system head on and bring new blood to the table that have been making all the right noises so far.
Looks like I wil be able to immediately fathom what govt departments do and undersatnd rpoad signs. Then a real celebration with the unequivocal demise of co governance.
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