National exceeded expectations, securing significant victories in electorates such as Mount Roskill, which they never thought they could win. The importance of electorates cannot be understated, as they provide visibility and credibility in the community. Currently, Labour only holds 17 of 72 electorates, with their base primarily concentrated in the North Island. In the South Island, they still hold seats in Christchurch and Dunedin.
Sure Christopher Luxon has become the Prime Minister as a first-term MP, which ordinarily would be an extraordinary achievement. Except this was the worst Government in living memory and National failed to get over 40 per cent like in the halcyon days of John Key.
I don’t think National’s brains trust can take much credit. Chris Bishop endured an angry Christopher Luxon for his brain fart the week before the election, suggesting we may need another election. Sources tell me that Luxon was caught by surprise by that.
Labour ran an exceptionally negative campaign, supported by their union flunkies in the CTU. The outcome of this election reflects a loss for Labour, not because they have bad people in their ranks, but because they were inept, nasty and dead-set useless. Watching Christopher Hipkins claim they built 13,000 houses without even mentioning they promised 100,000 was like watching and cheering on the special-needs kid coming home in the school cross country 30 minutes behind the rest.
Some will say that talented Labour MPs and candidates have lost or that they were good people, but I have to disagree. They all voted for division, racism, segregation and demonisation. Good people don’t do that.
However, the loss can be attributed to their gross incompetence: they failed to deliver on numerous iconic promises, and increased taxation and spending by $60 billion a year, resulting in worse outcomes across health and education sectors.
By contrast, Bill English, who wasn’t much chop as a leader but was a good finance minister, managed to deliver budgets with zero spending increases while improving health and education outcomes.
Labour’s abandonment of the Better Public Services targets in 2017 was their first and most significant mistake. In business, what gets measured get done. Labour hates measuring anything except how much tax they are grabbing and how much they are spending. A classic failure is the $1.9 billion dropped into mental health that disappeared just as fast as Phil Twyford’s credibility.
The results for the ACT Party were consistent with recent polling, although they may have expected a higher vote share. David Seymour was sitting at 15 per cent plus in 2022, but shed a good chunk of support by his silly grandstanding, arrogance and hubris, culminating in attacks against the very man they are going to need in coming days.
Nevertheless, their victory in Tamaki is a significant morale boost and holds tactical importance, even if it was a rather nasty attack against a supposed coalition partner. National MPs in Auckland should now focus on their electorates, as ACT may aim to win a third Auckland electorate in 2023.
The Greens achieved a good result compared to 2020, although slightly lower than expected. Their wins in Wellington Central and likely victory in Rongotai set them up well, and Labour may have lost some younger progressive voters to the Greens. The Greens, however, rather stupidly believe it is because of their brilliant campaigning and policies. They are wrong: it is because Labour was tits, and the hard left went to the Greens. Fortunately their prescription of communism and looter policies has been soundly rejected by the electorate as a whole.
NZ First also had a good result in line with the polls, allowing Winston Peters to return NZ First to Parliament, where they may have a significant role, possibly in the government. The last three weeks of the campaign saw firstly the ACT Party attacking Winston, then Labour and National to varying degrees. All that did was give Winston oxygen and boosted his result.
Working with NZ First will present challenges but also opportunities, as three centre-right parties seek to balance the three centre-left parties.
Te Pati Maori had a successful night, with the number of electorates they will secure yet to be confirmed. Currently, they have four but could end up with three or six, dealing a significant blow to Labour in these electorates. This shows that their overt racism has a willing audience amongst Maori voters and does not bode well for the future.
There are around 600,000 special votes, which include overseas voters and those outside their electorate on election day. That is 20 per cent of the vote, and it may throw up some curve balls. Waiting for those results to come in would be wise before rushing to assume National and ACT can govern alone.
If you watched the rolling coverage on the election results website to the end you would have seen National drop from almost 41 per cent, when Luxon claimed victory, to less than 39 per cent. ACT, too, slid away, but NZ First was still gaining.
The specials will be important and may necessitate including NZ First formally.
This is election isn’t quite over until the fat lady sings, but Megan Woods is staying pretty quiet right now.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.
Sure Christopher Luxon has become the Prime Minister as a first-term MP, which ordinarily would be an extraordinary achievement. Except this was the worst Government in living memory and National failed to get over 40 per cent like in the halcyon days of John Key.
I don’t think National’s brains trust can take much credit. Chris Bishop endured an angry Christopher Luxon for his brain fart the week before the election, suggesting we may need another election. Sources tell me that Luxon was caught by surprise by that.
Labour ran an exceptionally negative campaign, supported by their union flunkies in the CTU. The outcome of this election reflects a loss for Labour, not because they have bad people in their ranks, but because they were inept, nasty and dead-set useless. Watching Christopher Hipkins claim they built 13,000 houses without even mentioning they promised 100,000 was like watching and cheering on the special-needs kid coming home in the school cross country 30 minutes behind the rest.
Some will say that talented Labour MPs and candidates have lost or that they were good people, but I have to disagree. They all voted for division, racism, segregation and demonisation. Good people don’t do that.
However, the loss can be attributed to their gross incompetence: they failed to deliver on numerous iconic promises, and increased taxation and spending by $60 billion a year, resulting in worse outcomes across health and education sectors.
By contrast, Bill English, who wasn’t much chop as a leader but was a good finance minister, managed to deliver budgets with zero spending increases while improving health and education outcomes.
Labour’s abandonment of the Better Public Services targets in 2017 was their first and most significant mistake. In business, what gets measured get done. Labour hates measuring anything except how much tax they are grabbing and how much they are spending. A classic failure is the $1.9 billion dropped into mental health that disappeared just as fast as Phil Twyford’s credibility.
The results for the ACT Party were consistent with recent polling, although they may have expected a higher vote share. David Seymour was sitting at 15 per cent plus in 2022, but shed a good chunk of support by his silly grandstanding, arrogance and hubris, culminating in attacks against the very man they are going to need in coming days.
Nevertheless, their victory in Tamaki is a significant morale boost and holds tactical importance, even if it was a rather nasty attack against a supposed coalition partner. National MPs in Auckland should now focus on their electorates, as ACT may aim to win a third Auckland electorate in 2023.
The Greens achieved a good result compared to 2020, although slightly lower than expected. Their wins in Wellington Central and likely victory in Rongotai set them up well, and Labour may have lost some younger progressive voters to the Greens. The Greens, however, rather stupidly believe it is because of their brilliant campaigning and policies. They are wrong: it is because Labour was tits, and the hard left went to the Greens. Fortunately their prescription of communism and looter policies has been soundly rejected by the electorate as a whole.
NZ First also had a good result in line with the polls, allowing Winston Peters to return NZ First to Parliament, where they may have a significant role, possibly in the government. The last three weeks of the campaign saw firstly the ACT Party attacking Winston, then Labour and National to varying degrees. All that did was give Winston oxygen and boosted his result.
Working with NZ First will present challenges but also opportunities, as three centre-right parties seek to balance the three centre-left parties.
Te Pati Maori had a successful night, with the number of electorates they will secure yet to be confirmed. Currently, they have four but could end up with three or six, dealing a significant blow to Labour in these electorates. This shows that their overt racism has a willing audience amongst Maori voters and does not bode well for the future.
There are around 600,000 special votes, which include overseas voters and those outside their electorate on election day. That is 20 per cent of the vote, and it may throw up some curve balls. Waiting for those results to come in would be wise before rushing to assume National and ACT can govern alone.
If you watched the rolling coverage on the election results website to the end you would have seen National drop from almost 41 per cent, when Luxon claimed victory, to less than 39 per cent. ACT, too, slid away, but NZ First was still gaining.
The specials will be important and may necessitate including NZ First formally.
This is election isn’t quite over until the fat lady sings, but Megan Woods is staying pretty quiet right now.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.
5 comments:
I like the running race analogy! I observe with disamy the wholesale demolition with no attempt to salvage anyhting but copper pipes, of sound former family homes throghout Auckland. I wonder if the houses built figure is th net. Meanwhile myself and a few million others fritter precious time each week sorting rubbish to save a tiny space in some infill.
Personally I reckon the election outcome simply represented otherwise cowed citizens exercisng in confidence their inner view on the advancing maori takeover.
I was dismayed by the number of people who said that they were going to vote ACT until Seymour had his little spat with Peter's, and then they were flipping to NZF. It's policies that will decide the direction and prosperity of the country over the next 3+ years, not the personality of party leaders, particularly the minor parties. Sure Seymour made a mistake, which hopefully he will never repeat, and I hope that we all don't end up regretting the action of those who flipped to Peter's . Remember it was he who gave Jacinda the power to form the worst govt. this country has ever had to suffer, and I will never forgive him for that.
I have to account for every dollar spent, how do Labour get to make $1.9Bn disappear without an audit or accountability ?
Where is that money ? and billions like it ?
Thanks Cam. This is the most informative resume out of all the post-election "analysis" as so much else is drivel.
The Maori Party is scary but so I can sleep at night I rationalise that they have say 3% of the vote and only 20% of the Maori population vote.
Willie Jackson and John Tamahire are scary too and you can bet they are plotting madly as we speak. Has anyone checked Harry Tam's social media today?
Allan, perhaps Winston being in the 2017 government stopped the Maori agenda getting a foothold earlier than it did? He was pretty mad about He Puapua when he found out about it.
The fat lady and her dispossessed mates have no idea why they got booted out. So many reasons to choose from.
A good summary of election night, though I thought National actually peaked at over 42% for a brief time. I was out of the country and didn't see the debates but was annoyed to read about David Seymour's behaviour which will have lost ACT significant numbers of potential voters. A lot of NZers appreciate a little humility in their politicians.
Cam will be very pleased about the result in Tukituki electorate!
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