Just a short while ago in mid 2022, this is what former Finance Minister Grant Robertson and incoming Vice Chancellor to Otago University told us about the economy, "We are forecast to reach an operating balance [budget] surplus in the 2024/25 financial year".
We're starting that financial year and there is no surplus - not now, not on the horizon. The budget deficit for 2024/25 is on target to be a whopping (negative) $13 billion - even including the effects of the new Coalition's cuts. The previous government would argue their "surplus" was only ever an imaginary fictional forecast. But it was not a forecast. It wasn't even fiction. It was misinformation designed to help Labour win the 2023 election, in cahoots with the Treasury. The surplus was never realistic. As the NZ economy stagnated in 2023, Labour went on a massive bureaucratic hiring & spending spree, guaranteeing there would be no surplus in 2024/25. It is unlikely there will ever be a surplus, given present policy settings, as health spending soars due to population aging & birth rates plummet. Is VC Robertson telling Otago, as we speak, he will ensure the University will also achieve surplus within a couple of years? Good luck with the clever strategy of hiring former politicians as Vice Chancellors.
Sources:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/budget-2022-finance-minister-grant-robertson-s-full-speech.html
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2024-05/befu24.pdf
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2022-05/b22-at-a-glance_2.pdf
Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi from where this article was sourced.
Sources:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/05/budget-2022-finance-minister-grant-robertson-s-full-speech.html
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2024-05/befu24.pdf
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2022-05/b22-at-a-glance_2.pdf
Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi from where this article was sourced.
3 comments:
Would you really expect anything other that a big fat lie?
Throughout the term of the last government TVNZ, Stuff and the rest of the far left media were constantly telling us that the economy was turning round, that we had record low unemployment and that Jacinda's policies were praised by the international experts. They particularly noted improvements to the quarterly GDP without pointing out that that is based on spending rather than production.
Throughout the term of the last government TVNZ, Stuff and the rest of the far left media were constantly telling us that the economy was turning round, that we had record low unemployment and that Jacinda's policies were praised by the international experts. They particularly noted improvements to the quarterly GDP without pointing out that that is based on spending rather than production.
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