This happened mere days after a knife attack at a festival in Solingen killed three people. The attacker, Issa Al H., was a 26-year-old Syrian who had lived in Germany since 2022 despite his claim for asylum being rejected. Unsurprisingly, this terrorist attack dominated the final week of the campaign. It put immigration and security at the centre of debate – right where the AfD likes to have it.
No wonder the AfD did well, and not just in Thuringia. In Saxony, the far right polled 30.6% finishing narrowly behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which received 31.9% of the vote. Meanwhile, the three parties forming the federal government in Berlin (SPD, Greens and FDP) did not manage to score even 15% combined.
Immigration and migrant crime have long been political issues in Germany, but Solingen was a sudden and dramatic reminder of the problems facing the country.
Since Angela Merkel dramatically opened the borders in 2015, Germany has taken in approximately 2.5 million asylum seekers, overwhelming the system. In 2023 alone, Germany received 352,000 new asylum claims, a 51% increase on the previous year.
The Solingen attack laid bare multiple failings in Germany’s immigration policy. The system for deporting rejected asylum seekers is dysfunctional, as evinced by Al H.’s two-year stay after his claim was rejected. In 2023, over 200,000 were meant to be deported, but only 16,430 actually left the country.
Integration presents another significant challenge. While many migrants adapt well to their new environment, some struggle with life in a secular, liberal democracy. This sometimes leads to criminal behaviour, and sometimes also to political and religious radicalisation. Unfortunately, in the case of the Solingen terrorist, that was the case – and it went unnoticed by the authorities.
Adding fuel to this political fire are troubling crime statistics. Young men, regardless of where they come from, are more inclined to commit crimes than other demographics. However, that does not explain the overrepresentation of migrants in these statistics.
In 2022, foreigners, who make up 14.4% of the population in Germany, were responsible for 31.9% of all crimes. Even more alarming are the figures for serious offences: 36.6% of rapes, 41.1% of murders and manslaughters, and 55.1% of organised crime cases involved foreign perpetrators. (Incidentally, that is the opposite of New Zealand’s experience, where migrants seem less likely to be involved in crime than those born here.)
Germany’s long-standing issues with migration and the difficulty of integrating asylum seekers have clearly pushed the AfD to new heights. But the AfD was not the only party with a strong showing.
Adding to the political upheaval, the newly formed Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) made a strong showing, securing 11.8% in Saxony and 15.8% in Thuringia.
The BSW results were remarkable for a party not even a year old and with a mere 700 members. Blending left-wing economic policies with conservative social views and a pro-Russian foreign policy, it has emerged as a significant player.
Forming governments in Thuringia and Saxony will now prove exceptionally difficult. In Thuringia, a coalition excluding the AfD would need to span the entire political spectrum – The Left’s ex-communists, Social Democrats, BSW’s pro-Putin populists and the centre-right Christian Democrats. In Saxony, CDU leader Michael Kretschmer will have to form a similar coalition, albeit without The Left.
These events, Solingen and the elections, will have far-reaching political implications. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is urging for stricter legislation on crimes involving weapons and the treatment of asylum-seekers, and the opposition CDU is advocating for expedited deportations and enhanced border security.
The AfD capitalises most effectively on immigration concerns. For years, mainstream parties have sidestepped frank discussions about immigration problems, fearing accusations of racism. Their unwillingness to act created an opportunity that the AfD eagerly took advantage of, positioning itself as the lone party ready to tackle these challenges head-on. It is textbook populism.
However, it would be a mistake to attribute the AfD’s rise solely to immigration and crime concerns. Their success also reflects a broader disillusionment with established politics, particularly pronounced in eastern Germany where many feel neglected and left behind by the political mainstream. It signifies a growing east-west divide and a challenge to the post-reunification political consensus.
Germany’s traditional parties have a tough battle ahead of them. They must address legitimate worries regarding immigration and security – but without the shrill rhetoric of the AfD. And they must do so within the confines of European and German constitutional law, which is more demanding than simply shouting populist slogans from the sidelines.
Beyond migration policy, crime and terrorism., Germany’s entire party-political system has become unstable.
For Chancellor Scholz, his SPD and his coalition government, these results are a disaster. Scholz’s attempts to address migration issues were too timid and came too late. He must now find a way to reconnect with voters, especially in eastern Germany, or risk being swept away in next year’s federal election.
Meanwhile, the Greens and FDP, Scholz’s junior partners in the federal coalition, face existential questions. Their poor showing in these state elections will lead to internal debates about their role in the coalition and their overall political strategy. The FDP, in particular, might wonder if it should pull out to secure its longer-term survival.
The emergence of the BSW as a significant force could also reshape left-wing politics in Germany, potentially challenging both the SPD and the Left Party in future elections, both at state and at federal levels.
The centre-right CDU finds itself in a particularly delicate position. It needs to balance its traditional pro-Western stance with a need to form coalitions in eastern states. The BSW’s insistence on ending arms deliveries to Ukraine as a condition for coalition talks will create tension between state and federal CDU policies.
Over the coming year, enroute to the 2025 general election, the political dynamics observed in Saxony and Thuringia will shape the parties’ strategies on a national scale.
If federal coalitions must involve BSW, as those in Saxony and Thuringia will, Germany will be a different country, particularly when it comes to defence and security.
For now, the other parties have ruled out a cooperation with BSW in Berlin. But after this election weekend, all bets are off in German politics.
Dr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative think tank. This article was first published HERE.
Immigration and migrant crime have long been political issues in Germany, but Solingen was a sudden and dramatic reminder of the problems facing the country.
Since Angela Merkel dramatically opened the borders in 2015, Germany has taken in approximately 2.5 million asylum seekers, overwhelming the system. In 2023 alone, Germany received 352,000 new asylum claims, a 51% increase on the previous year.
The Solingen attack laid bare multiple failings in Germany’s immigration policy. The system for deporting rejected asylum seekers is dysfunctional, as evinced by Al H.’s two-year stay after his claim was rejected. In 2023, over 200,000 were meant to be deported, but only 16,430 actually left the country.
Integration presents another significant challenge. While many migrants adapt well to their new environment, some struggle with life in a secular, liberal democracy. This sometimes leads to criminal behaviour, and sometimes also to political and religious radicalisation. Unfortunately, in the case of the Solingen terrorist, that was the case – and it went unnoticed by the authorities.
Adding fuel to this political fire are troubling crime statistics. Young men, regardless of where they come from, are more inclined to commit crimes than other demographics. However, that does not explain the overrepresentation of migrants in these statistics.
In 2022, foreigners, who make up 14.4% of the population in Germany, were responsible for 31.9% of all crimes. Even more alarming are the figures for serious offences: 36.6% of rapes, 41.1% of murders and manslaughters, and 55.1% of organised crime cases involved foreign perpetrators. (Incidentally, that is the opposite of New Zealand’s experience, where migrants seem less likely to be involved in crime than those born here.)
Germany’s long-standing issues with migration and the difficulty of integrating asylum seekers have clearly pushed the AfD to new heights. But the AfD was not the only party with a strong showing.
Adding to the political upheaval, the newly formed Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) made a strong showing, securing 11.8% in Saxony and 15.8% in Thuringia.
The BSW results were remarkable for a party not even a year old and with a mere 700 members. Blending left-wing economic policies with conservative social views and a pro-Russian foreign policy, it has emerged as a significant player.
Forming governments in Thuringia and Saxony will now prove exceptionally difficult. In Thuringia, a coalition excluding the AfD would need to span the entire political spectrum – The Left’s ex-communists, Social Democrats, BSW’s pro-Putin populists and the centre-right Christian Democrats. In Saxony, CDU leader Michael Kretschmer will have to form a similar coalition, albeit without The Left.
These events, Solingen and the elections, will have far-reaching political implications. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is urging for stricter legislation on crimes involving weapons and the treatment of asylum-seekers, and the opposition CDU is advocating for expedited deportations and enhanced border security.
The AfD capitalises most effectively on immigration concerns. For years, mainstream parties have sidestepped frank discussions about immigration problems, fearing accusations of racism. Their unwillingness to act created an opportunity that the AfD eagerly took advantage of, positioning itself as the lone party ready to tackle these challenges head-on. It is textbook populism.
However, it would be a mistake to attribute the AfD’s rise solely to immigration and crime concerns. Their success also reflects a broader disillusionment with established politics, particularly pronounced in eastern Germany where many feel neglected and left behind by the political mainstream. It signifies a growing east-west divide and a challenge to the post-reunification political consensus.
Germany’s traditional parties have a tough battle ahead of them. They must address legitimate worries regarding immigration and security – but without the shrill rhetoric of the AfD. And they must do so within the confines of European and German constitutional law, which is more demanding than simply shouting populist slogans from the sidelines.
Beyond migration policy, crime and terrorism., Germany’s entire party-political system has become unstable.
For Chancellor Scholz, his SPD and his coalition government, these results are a disaster. Scholz’s attempts to address migration issues were too timid and came too late. He must now find a way to reconnect with voters, especially in eastern Germany, or risk being swept away in next year’s federal election.
Meanwhile, the Greens and FDP, Scholz’s junior partners in the federal coalition, face existential questions. Their poor showing in these state elections will lead to internal debates about their role in the coalition and their overall political strategy. The FDP, in particular, might wonder if it should pull out to secure its longer-term survival.
The emergence of the BSW as a significant force could also reshape left-wing politics in Germany, potentially challenging both the SPD and the Left Party in future elections, both at state and at federal levels.
The centre-right CDU finds itself in a particularly delicate position. It needs to balance its traditional pro-Western stance with a need to form coalitions in eastern states. The BSW’s insistence on ending arms deliveries to Ukraine as a condition for coalition talks will create tension between state and federal CDU policies.
Over the coming year, enroute to the 2025 general election, the political dynamics observed in Saxony and Thuringia will shape the parties’ strategies on a national scale.
If federal coalitions must involve BSW, as those in Saxony and Thuringia will, Germany will be a different country, particularly when it comes to defence and security.
For now, the other parties have ruled out a cooperation with BSW in Berlin. But after this election weekend, all bets are off in German politics.
Dr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative think tank. This article was first published HERE.
5 comments:
The wonders of MMP and we copied it.
NZ has largely legal immigration , not mass planned illegal immigration by mainly young males.
When I was young WW2 had been not long previous and there was no sympathy for Germany. Only later did I learn of the terrible privations experienced by the German people from mid war years and after. One consolation is that they emerged with a near monoculture and so avoided many problems. How they could have been so foolish as to deliberately invite alternative cultures and all the associated problems is beyond belief. Encouraging cultures which are driven to dominate and which are alien to the majority is a mistake we in NZ have also made and are repeating with many immigrants, and with maori.
it would be interesting to know how the immigrant crime rate here compares with the non maori/PI rate.
The 'Left' are more like the 1933 Germany. But it's 2024 and is more like the Weimar Republic stage at the mo. 'Far Right' is a made up term by the left to alienate the public. Just as populist was a term used for socialism at the turn of the century or early 20th Century. Now it is used in a negative connotation. Just more examples of the 'Left' changing the meaning of words or commandeering the meaning to suit their purposes. Angela Merkel did more harm to Germany than people are prepared to say. Hence the social discohesion we are seeing today.
Just because you tell everyone one it's ok to have different philosophical outlooks it doesn't make it so and anyway these people are being asked to accept only one philosophical outlook. This does not render equality.
p.s. Good to see some push back Oliver.
Isn't it interesting how Germany was defeated in WW2, yet post-war Germany is not too different to France, Britain, New Zealand, America, Canada - all of the so-called "victors"? Germany is still a conquered nation (i.e. "de-Nazified" to the point where it is a neoliberal country with no rootedness, with no sense of itself as a collective of like-people with common culture and history).
In other words, we are all conquered, subverted and deracinated nations, all with similar problems as Germany, and all with an increasing number of people who look around them and understand that we've been lied to about WW2, about what was at stake, and about the claim that we "won" the war. Someone won the war, but it was not Europeans, German or otherwise.
The Nazis arrived and ended the Weimar Republic, the latter having very similar degeneracy, social incohesion, and cultural and economic woes that we do. One of the reasons the powers that be are always invoking "Nazis" and "the far-right" and "white supremacy" 80 years after the fact is that they know full well that therein lie many of the solutions to the many problems from which they benefit but 99.9% of everyone else suffered from.
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