Polls dip for Nats but govt sticks to its guns on growth – and the restoration of “mauri” (but how is it measured?) plays a part
The phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid” was coined by James Carville, a strategist involved in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential election campaign against George H W Bush.
It worked for Clinton, whose team used it successfully to unseat Bush the elder, despite the fact that 90 per cent of the country approved of the job that the incumbent had been doing just a year before the election.
The Financial Times observes that since then the phrase has been as much of a truism as you can have in politics. But is it working for the Luxon Government – elected a year ago – which invokes “economic growth” (or a variant) to justify much of what it does?
1News reported this morning on a 1News Verian poll which had asked about the shape of the country a year on: “do you think the country is in a worse shape or a better shape or no different than it was before the election?”
Forty percent of respondents think the country is in worse shape, 30% believe it is in better shape, and 26% see no difference.
The full results will be published tonight.
Let’s see how they stack up alongside the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll results published last week.
That poll – conducted over a similar time period to the 1News Verian poll – showed National support dropping 4.1 percentage points to 34.9% – its lowest result in 15 months in the Curia polls.
But the Nats are sticking to their GDP-focused guns.
Check out the stated objectives of most of the press statements released from the Beehive in the past few days.
1News reported this morning on a 1News Verian poll which had asked about the shape of the country a year on: “do you think the country is in a worse shape or a better shape or no different than it was before the election?”
Forty percent of respondents think the country is in worse shape, 30% believe it is in better shape, and 26% see no difference.
The full results will be published tonight.
Let’s see how they stack up alongside the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll results published last week.
That poll – conducted over a similar time period to the 1News Verian poll – showed National support dropping 4.1 percentage points to 34.9% – its lowest result in 15 months in the Curia polls.
But the Nats are sticking to their GDP-focused guns.
Check out the stated objectives of most of the press statements released from the Beehive in the past few days.
- Conservation measures in the Hauraki Gulf
Cabinet recently agreed to pass the Hauraki Gulf/Tīkapa Moana Marine Protection Bill into law, with amendments.
The Bill supports the delivery of the Government’s goals “to rebuild the economy and tackle environmental issues”.
The beauty of the Gulf is an important catalyst for economic benefits including tourism and fishing, Potaka says, citing a recent assessment by the NZ Institute of Economic Research which put the economic value of the Gulf at $100 billion.
So how do you restore “mauri” (something that scientists can’t measure)?
Among other things, the amendments put in place modern marine protection that balances the needs of communities, the environment and the economy – “for example, by carefully ensuring the continuation of customary non-commercial fishing rights”.
Oh – and “limited ring-net fishing will continue for a small number of fishers in protected areas who supply local communities.”
- Forestry
The establishment of this group follows an independent review of the operational costs of the forestry ETS Register announced earlier this year.
But the press statement says nothing about what it will do, other than:
“This group will help the Government to restore confidence and certainty for Forestry”, Mr McClay says.
And it will be doing good things for the economy, because:
“Forestry plays an important role in helping New Zealand meet its emissions reductions obligations and grow our economy.”
- Energy
Under a minimum stockholding obligation introduced by the Labour Government, from 1 January 2025 fuel importers will be required to hold 28 days’ cover for petrol, 24 days for jet fuel and 21 days for diesel.
Jones questions the sufficiency of the cover for diesel and jet fuel.
He is seeking feedback on increasing diesel reserves to 28 days’ stock to help reduce any potential impact of a disruption to supply and is concerned about security of supply of jet fuel at Auckland Airport
The discussion document on increasing diesel reserves from 21 to 28 days is here: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/have-your-say/options-for-improving-our-diesel-resilience. Consultation closes on December 6.
Reiterating that fuel security is a priority for the Coalition Government, Jones says:
“We are acutely aware of how important engine fuels are to our economy and the impacts a fuel disruption would have on New Zealanders.”
- Finance regulations
The Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism system provides a framework for detecting, deterring, and combatting money laundering, terrorist financing, and serious and organised crime.
Cabinet has approved a reform work programme which will ensure streamlined, workable, and effective regulations for businesses, law enforcement, and everyday New Zealanders.
“The reforms will deliver a critical Government priority to cut red tape and improve the quality of regulation. My aim is to provide regulatory relief to businesses and the public, enabling law enforcement to crack down on organised crime, and ensuring that New Zealand upholds its international reputation.”
New Zealand does have an obligation to meet the standards set by the Financial Action Task Force, McKee says.
“Complying with these standards is important to protect our economy and our international reputation.”
- The building industry
He referenced a report which found the sector supports 20 per cent of all jobs in New Zealand and contributes $99 billion in sales, but productivity levels are the same as they were in 1985 and that the time taken to build a home has increased to a staggering 19 months on average.
Penk says much of that lost productivity is due to the building consent system which adds layers of regulations that makes building more expensive.
The guiding principles for the government’s reforms are that building needs to be easier and that regulations surrounding it should be streamlined, proportionate to the risk, consistent nationwide and place liability in the appropriate places.
Penk listed 11 changes and proposed changes in his press statement (such as allowing Granny Flats and other structures up to 60sqm to be built without a building or resource consent and reviewing the earthquake-prone building legislation) and concluded:
“This is all part of the Government’s wider plan to rebuild the economy and end the housing crisis.”
- Overseas investment
The new starting point is that investment can proceed unless there is an identified risk to New Zealand’s interests. This process will be guided by a government policy statement.
Seymour will now be developing detailed proposals to reform the Overseas Investment Act, with the goal to pass legislation before the end of next year.
“Attracting more overseas investment is a vital part of the Government’s economic strategy. The decisions Cabinet has taken will ensure that New Zealand is a player once again, instead of sitting on the bench.”
- Health and safety
“New Zealand’s poorly performing health and safety system could be costing this country billions,” says Ms van Velden.
“An effective health and safety system can support productivity and economic growth. I want to make sure businesses and organisations are focused on addressing the things that are causing workers harm, rather than being caught up in unnecessary compliance or trying to interpret and navigate complex rules and regulations.”
The Minister has gone to 11 towns and cities, attending 23 meetings and 15 site visits across the country.
MBIE has received over 200 submissions so far, with most coming from organisations with 100 or more employees. Around 20 percent are from small businesses.
A quarter of the online submissions are from the construction industry. The other industries with the highest number of submissions are agriculture, forestry and fishing, manufacturing and ‘other’.
Van Velden said the problems she is hearing about from employers, businesses and workers are shared across different parts of the country and across very different industries.
“This consensus has been surprising, and the frustrations are very real.”
For example, small businesses and sole traders are struggling much more with compliance than businesses which can afford dedicated health and safety experts. For SMEs, the costs can be unbearably high – they have to consider the financial costs, as well as the time they have to commit.
Latest from the Beehive
14 October 2024
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today announced the appointment of Sir Brian Roche as the next Public Service Commissioner.
Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced the establishment of a Forestry Sector Reference Group to drive better outcomes from the Forestry Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Registry.
The Government will reform New Zealand’s Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) system to provide significant regulatory relief for businesses.
Significant reforms are underway in the building and construction portfolio to help enable more affordable homes and a stronger economy, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says.
Minister Responsible for the GCSB and Minister of Defence Judith Collins will travel to Singapore and Brussels for Singapore International Cyber Week and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Defence Ministers’ Meeting.
A Government commitment to restoring the health and mauri of the Hauraki Gulf/Tīkapa Moana will enhance the area for generations to come, Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka says.
12 October 2024
Associate Finance Minister David Seymour says the Government has committed to action on overseas investment, where the country’s policy settings are the worst in the developed world and holding back wage growth.
11 October 2024
The annual East Asia Summit (EAS) held in Laos this week underscored the critical role that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plays in ensuring a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific.
11 October 2024
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says the feedback from the health and safety roadshow will help shape the future of health and safety in New Zealand and grow the economy.
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
4 comments:
It worked for Clinton? Bill Clinton, young, brash and cool was the original sin of the “modern Democracy”.
Clinton inaugurated the New Left to power. The party of labour unions ditched Michael Harrington and spearheaded the PPP, public-private-partnerships. Instead of the Marxist conflict between capital and labour, government would entice big business through incentives to work for the public good. Clinton told supporters: “The change I seek and the change that we must all seek, isn’t liberal or conservative. It’s different, and it’s both.” This idea was not new but had been more fully developed by Benito Mussolini sixty years earlier: “Fascism recognizes the real needs which gave rise to socialism and trade unionism, giving them due weight in the guild or “corporative system” in which divergent interests are coordinated and harmonized in the unity of the State.”
Yes - this was Blair's Third Way which is being followed by Starmer in the UK ( despite Angeal Rayner insulting big business investors .)
Assuming the people being polled about whether they think the country is better off are a representative sample of voters, frankly they wouldn't have a clue. The average voter has the attention span of a goldfish and is utterly incapable of looking past their own immediate gratification. So the polls are really only a measure of voter ignorance, not a remarkable insight into the state of the nation. Good clickbait for the left- leaning media though.
Further to Anon 257, a quote from the great Li Kwan Yu:
"I ignore polling as a method of government. I think that shows a certain weakness of mind - an inability to chart a course whichever way the wind blows, whichever way the media encourages the people to go, you follow. If you can't force or are unwilling to force your people to follow you, with or without threats, you are not a leader.”
Post a Comment
Thanks for engaging in the debate!
Because this is a public forum, we will only publish comments that are respectful and do NOT contain links to other sites. We appreciate your cooperation.