The first poll for the year is out: the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll. It has thrown up some interesting, some might say intriguing, results. Before commencing an analysis I think we should bear in mind the time of year it was taken. Politics might be a topic for the barbecue but it is in the context of a holiday environment. That could account for the sorts of results the poll has thrown up.
National is down 4.6 to 29.6 and Labour is up 4.0 to 30.9. This is the interesting one. ACT were down 2.2 to 10.8, NZ First were up 2.7 to 8.1, Greens were up 1.2 to 9.5, Māori Party down 0.2 to 5.3 and others were up 2.5 to 5.8. If you look at those results, Labour’s increase had to come from the right.
A lot of emphasis for these results is placed on the economic factors governing the situation people are finding themselves in. Indeed, the top three issues voters have mentioned are cost of living followed by the economy and health. Māori/Treaty issues came in at number four, high enough to lend credence to my supposition.
I personally don’t believe National has lost support on the basis of the economy. I know the country is still in deep schtook and, while it can be argued the government should be moving faster, the enormity of the mess they inherited means it can’t be an overnight turnaround. I concede they could have been tougher in areas such as reducing the bloated civil service.
This leads me to the other reason I don’t think National’s downturn is to do with the economy. I am aware of the saying ‘people have short memories’, but I don’t think the majority of people have forgotten the disastrous Ardern/Robertson reign of terror. I think the fact that vitriol is still being aimed at Ardern is proof of that. They had no more idea than ‘Rachel (Reeves) from Accounts’ (the current UK Chancellor).
I don’t believe Labour’s gain came from ACT voters who, for whatever reason, appear to have switched to NZ First: maybe they are attracted by the rhetoric of Shane Jones. They didn’t come from the Greens, as their vote also increased. It didn’t come from NZ First or ‘others’ who increased their votes, and the Māori Party stayed virtually the same.
That leaves just one party: National. The obvious question is why would National voters switch to Labour? As things stand there is one glaring reason – National’s, and particularly Christopher Luxon’s, attitude to the Treaty Principles Bill. There are a significant number of disgruntled National supporters on this issue to use this poll to vent their displeasure to the National Party.
They might have seen this poll, taken at this particular time of the year, as a good opportunity to send National and Luxon a message. They might see this as a suitable time with submissions now before the relevant committee. They might also realise that doing harm to the party in this poll might cause minimal damage bearing in mind the holiday season is still somewhat in evidence. As a consequence this could be seen purely as a protest vote.
This is where the double-edged sword comes in. Labour should not get too excited or cocky. If my assumption is correct then the boost to Labour is a temporary one. This theory is, to a degree, backed up by the fact that Hipkins in this poll has gone down in popularity by about the same amount his party gone up.
So there is no reason to pop the champagne corks for either of the two main parties. The majority of voters haven’t forgotten that the economic mess was created by Labour but neither are they happy with the language and rhetoric of Luxon towards the Treaty Principles Bill. His increasing vitriol smacks of a personal preference taking precedence over the wishes of the majority of centre-right voters.
That to me shows a lack of political nous that he needs to recognise if he wants to negate the risk of doing further damage to his party. His views are in line with those on the left and voters don’t want them back. We want what we voted for and that was for the Treaty Principles Bill to be passed by parliament so it could then go to a referendum.
That is democracy working as it should. It will be a very sad day if this course of action is refused by a centre-right government. We did not vote for a government that would simply mimic the actions the left would take. That is NOT what we voted for.
JC is a right-wing crusader. Reached an age that embodies the dictum only the good die young. This article was first published HERE
A lot of emphasis for these results is placed on the economic factors governing the situation people are finding themselves in. Indeed, the top three issues voters have mentioned are cost of living followed by the economy and health. Māori/Treaty issues came in at number four, high enough to lend credence to my supposition.
I personally don’t believe National has lost support on the basis of the economy. I know the country is still in deep schtook and, while it can be argued the government should be moving faster, the enormity of the mess they inherited means it can’t be an overnight turnaround. I concede they could have been tougher in areas such as reducing the bloated civil service.
This leads me to the other reason I don’t think National’s downturn is to do with the economy. I am aware of the saying ‘people have short memories’, but I don’t think the majority of people have forgotten the disastrous Ardern/Robertson reign of terror. I think the fact that vitriol is still being aimed at Ardern is proof of that. They had no more idea than ‘Rachel (Reeves) from Accounts’ (the current UK Chancellor).
I don’t believe Labour’s gain came from ACT voters who, for whatever reason, appear to have switched to NZ First: maybe they are attracted by the rhetoric of Shane Jones. They didn’t come from the Greens, as their vote also increased. It didn’t come from NZ First or ‘others’ who increased their votes, and the Māori Party stayed virtually the same.
That leaves just one party: National. The obvious question is why would National voters switch to Labour? As things stand there is one glaring reason – National’s, and particularly Christopher Luxon’s, attitude to the Treaty Principles Bill. There are a significant number of disgruntled National supporters on this issue to use this poll to vent their displeasure to the National Party.
They might have seen this poll, taken at this particular time of the year, as a good opportunity to send National and Luxon a message. They might see this as a suitable time with submissions now before the relevant committee. They might also realise that doing harm to the party in this poll might cause minimal damage bearing in mind the holiday season is still somewhat in evidence. As a consequence this could be seen purely as a protest vote.
This is where the double-edged sword comes in. Labour should not get too excited or cocky. If my assumption is correct then the boost to Labour is a temporary one. This theory is, to a degree, backed up by the fact that Hipkins in this poll has gone down in popularity by about the same amount his party gone up.
So there is no reason to pop the champagne corks for either of the two main parties. The majority of voters haven’t forgotten that the economic mess was created by Labour but neither are they happy with the language and rhetoric of Luxon towards the Treaty Principles Bill. His increasing vitriol smacks of a personal preference taking precedence over the wishes of the majority of centre-right voters.
That to me shows a lack of political nous that he needs to recognise if he wants to negate the risk of doing further damage to his party. His views are in line with those on the left and voters don’t want them back. We want what we voted for and that was for the Treaty Principles Bill to be passed by parliament so it could then go to a referendum.
That is democracy working as it should. It will be a very sad day if this course of action is refused by a centre-right government. We did not vote for a government that would simply mimic the actions the left would take. That is NOT what we voted for.
JC is a right-wing crusader. Reached an age that embodies the dictum only the good die young. This article was first published HERE
7 comments:
Excellent analysis. Corrective action is urgent. Mr Luxon is behaving like a dictatorial CEO. He must remember that , as PM, he serves the citizens of NZ - their wishes are important.
Memo to Luxon: Re-arranging deck chairs is NOT leadership but simply proof that you stuffed up in the first place.
Great analysis as usual JC. I think you have probably got it accurate.
I'm a little upset with luxon, but my god, we can't have the far left incompetence back in anytime soon, what an absolute train wreck they are.
It is not the necessarily Bill that the 'people' want but the 'people' do want National to acknowledge there is a problem and to deal with it immediately .Not continue the division.
Luxon is doing an excellent job in very trying circumstances.
He fixed a headless and dispirited national party to win the election, he has removed Labour's fraudulent payments to the Maori Kings family, he removed the other personally enriching labour hierarchy schemes, he has tamed Inflation (a monumental task), he is working hard to rebuild nzs economy by removing regulation wisely and methodologically and reconnecting nz with the world, he tamed Peters who for the first time in his political life is actually doing something good for nz.
I read articles which say luxon is acting too much time a ceo and articles that he is acting too much like an appeasing politician.
I note with a chuckle that those writing the critical articles have never successfully climbed to the top of the corporate ladder and have never successfully turned a political party around to become prime minister.
Perhaps you should all take a deep breath and give Luxon the time it takes to enact the huge changes it will take to turn NZ around before engaging your poisoned nd shallow pens.
There is noone in nz better qualified than Luxon to save NZ!
To Anon at 8.52: Luxon will never do this.
You've summed it well. Sadly, the average NZ punter seems to have a very short memory; an inability to grasp basic economics; and a complete lack of understanding at how divisive those parties promoting identity politics on the left currently are. As for Luxon and his kindred sycophants, they haven't learned that appeasement and kowtowing to Maori is a zero-sum game, where the country will ultimately lose its nationhood. It's well on the way, and Luxon fails to appreciate that productivity and unity are inextricably bound. Turning a blind, arrogant eye is not the answer.
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