Ian Bradford: Some Facts About Carbon Dioxide and Sea Levels

The Earth’s atmosphere takes up about 4.2 billion cubic kilometres, and weighs about 5x10­­¹⁸ kg. That’s 5,000,000,000,000,000,000 kg.

Nitrogen takes up 78.09% of this volume, oxygen 20.95% and argon 0.93%. The remaining 0.03% consists of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone plus very small amounts of other gases.

The IPCC say that carbon dioxide from humans is just 4% of all carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  The percentage of carbon dioxide in the trace gases is just 0.041% of all gases in the atmosphere.  So the percentage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide from humans) is 4% of 0.041 which equals 0.0016%.  So human caused carbon dioxide is a mere 0.0016% of all the gases in the atmosphere. 

What does this mean: It means that for every million gas molecules in the atmosphere just 16 are carbon dioxide from humans. These 16 molecules in every million are causing climate change!  Common sense tells me that is a load of rubbish.  But that is what we are made to believe.  Apparently, the other 96% of carbon dioxide doesn’t do anything.

We must not forget methane. For methane emitted by ruminants, for every 10 million gas molecules in the atmosphere just 2 are methane.  These 2 molecules also, we are told, make a contribution to climate change!  

The Earth has been in an ice age for the past 400,000 years.  The Earth’s temperature in each of the last four interglacial periods was several degrees warmer than today.  

The red/pink peaks show that the temperature of the interglacial periods were hotter than today. (Today is the dotted line). Two peaks are almost three degrees hotter than today.    

The current ice age is named the Quaternary and has been underway for the past 2.5 million years. During the ice age there are two periods of interglacial warming and glacial cooling. At present we are enjoying the benefits of the interglacial warming called the Holocene, but the temperatures have been in decline over the past 6000 years.

Melting glaciers are a positive sign that the warmer interglacial is extent and we are not falling back into a devastating glaciation. The recent pause in global warming from 1998 debunks any idea of run- away global warming. 

Data is available for the so-called greenhouse gases other than water vapour, to calculate their contribution to global warming in degrees Celsius. The sum of the contributions of all the greenhouse gases except water vapour was 0.0083Deg C.  This amount of temperature is too small to measure. Water vapour is the only greenhouse gas that causes measurable warming of the Earth’s atmosphere.  This is then the exact result of the mathematical model developed in 1904 by Willis Carter and is now a computer program called “Humidair.”  This program confirms the unique role of water vapour in the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere, and the virtually non-temperature role of the other greenhouses gases.

We have just had a very large wild-fire in California.  A bad fire season in California will emit 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That is almost 30% of California’s annual emissions of 370 million tonnes. Oil and gas is being regulated out of existence despite accounting for a mere 1.5% of emissions. This is a $200 billion per year industry for the people of California.  One bad fire season equals 10 years of oil production. Politicians need to be held accountable. They are captured by environmental activists and shutting down massive industries for no scientific reason. 

Carbon dioxide is essential for plant growth, and increased levels can lead to higher crop yields and longer growing seasons in some areas, which could benefit agriculture. 

However, the climate alarmism driven by wealthy nations often imposes crippling restrictions on impoverished countries, depriving them of affordable energy and economic growth opportunities under the guise of saving the planet. Meanwhile industrial giants like China and India continue to emit massive amounts of carbon dioxide unchecked, rendering these sacrifices by poorer nations virtually meaningless in the broader picture.  The climate narrative prioritizes control over progress, leaving vulnerable populations to pay the price.  

The Antarctic and other ice core samples allow us to track both atmospheric CO₂  levels  and temperature for at least the past 800,000 plus years. Those ice cores show that factors other than other than CO₂ levels have driven periods of extreme global warming and cooling with NO contribution from humans. Shouldn’t we assume that those factors (solar activity, orbital variations etc), are still at play and that we are likely in a natural warming or cooling trend now, as we have always been?  

Over the past 800,000 years every warming period started when the level of CO₂ was at an historic low, and every cooling period started when CO₂ was at an historic high.  Wouldn’t we expect the opposite from this so called greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.  Hard empirical evidence shows carbon dioxide is irrelevant to temperature.  If this is the case then the whole argument that man-made CO₂ is warming the planet is likely wrong, and all steps to curb CO₂emissions will have no effect on global temperature. 

Here’s another point. The ice core samples clearly show that in every warming period, global temperature always rose on average about 600 years BEFORE CO₂ levels rose (and the opposite in every cooling period).  Since cause comes before effect, clearly in this case temperature is the cause and carbon dioxide emissions are the effect. Solar variability is the likely cause of the Earth’s temperature variation. A warmer planet caused CO₂ to come out of solution in the oceans and into the atmosphere. (Remember, the oceans hold the most CO₂.)   This is probably what is happening now. The warming oceans are emitting CO_2.  Thousands of undersea volcanoes may also be the reason for the warming oceans (warm water holds less carbon dioxide than cold water).  But here is another reason why the oceans may be emitting carbon dioxide. The headline from the “Environment” 20^th March 2018 said this:  “The Ocean has Released an Insane Amount of Carbon Dioxide and No One Even Noticed.” It appears that the underwater plant seagrass off north western  Australia has triggered a huge release of carbon dioxide due to the warming oceans. It is estimated 9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere.  Now this crop of seagrass represents only 1.3 % of all the carbon dioxide  stored by seagrass,  all round the world.  The question is then, is all this other seagrass emitting carbon dioxide in huge quantities also due to increased ocean temperatures.  If so, then that, plus the warming oceans in general emitting carbon dioxide, may explain why carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere at the present time.  In other words humans are not responsible. 

Sea Level

I just remind readers what was said and written way back more than 30 years ago. 

“UN Predicts Disaster if Global Warming not Checked” from Peter James Spielmann June 30^th 1989

United Nations (AP). A senior UN environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed BY THE YEAR 2000 !

Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco refugees” threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York Office of the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP). He said governments had a 10 year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes out of control. (That’s still by the year 2000.)

As the warming melts polar ice caps, (That’s both ice caps), ocean levels will rise up to three feet- that’s nearly a metre., enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations, Brown told The Associated Press in an interview.   Coastal regions will be inundated, one sixth of Bangladesh will be flooded, displacing a quarter of its 90 million people. A fifth of Egypt’s arable land in the Nile Delta will be flooded, cutting off its food supply, according to a joint UNEP and US Environmental Protection Agency study. Ecological refugees will become a major concern. 

Well, more than 30 years on we are still waiting for all this to happen.  It should be noted that if all the Arctic was to melt then there would be no rise in sea level. The Arctic is floating ice. Floating ice does not cause a rise in sea level when it melts.

They are still at it. Just few weeks ago, a woman on the media repeated the same kinds of scaremongering. 

Have the Maldives gone underwater?  New Zealand researchers published a study in 2018. Based on aerial photos and satellite images of pacific Islands over the last four decades, the study found that most atolls they examined were actually increasing in size. The results echoed a 2015 study by lead author and scientist Paul Kench who told the New Scientist that the Maldives were also  growing in size. Back in 1988 the Maldives had  a population of 200,000.  Today, the population has grown to 417,000. Obviously, decades old warnings that the Maldives were on the verge of being swallowed by the sea didn’t pan out. 

Time to introduce Nils Morner. Nils did his PhD on sea levels. He has recently retired as director of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department of Stockholm University . For 45 years he has specialised in sea level research. He is a sea level specialist and has studied sea levels worldwide.  

Clear observational measurements in the field indicate that sea level is not rising in the Maldives, Bangladesh, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and French Guyana. (Morner, 2007-2010. All these places are key sites in the sea level debate, where the IPCC and its ideological associates have predicted terrible flooding scenarios. The reality is totally different from what the IPCC claim. 

The graph shows prediction using models and how these differ from what is actually observed.

In Tuvalu, the President continues to claim that they are in the process of being flooded. Yet the tide gauge data provides clear indication of stability over the last 30 years (Morner2007-2010). In Vanuatu, the tide gauge indicates a stable sea level rise over the last 14 years. (Morner2007)

The Topex/Poseidon and later Jason missions recorded the variation of the ocean surface with high resolution.  Having applied all the technical corrections needed. Menard and Aviso (2000), presented a first level graph from 1992 to 2000. The trend is between 0.0 and 1.0 mm per year.  This is ignoring the ENSO event 175-200.  

The graph shows sea level as measured by satellite (Topex/Poseidon), from October 1992 to April 2000. The blip is and ENSO event and is ignored. The graph shows almost no sea level rise. 

When the satellite altimetry group realised that the 1997 rise was an ENSO signal, they decided to extend the graph up to 2003. But they had a problem. There was no sea level rise visible and therefore  a “reinterpretation” needed to be undertaken.   Nils Morner was present at the Russian Academy Global Warming meeting in Moscow in 2005 when this was announced. It was never made clear what sort of corrections were made and why.  

In 2003 the satellite altimetry record graph suddenly took on a new tilt. What lies flat in the previous graph now takes an upward tilt. Now we have a sea level rise rate of 2.3mm per year.  Nils Morner criticised the “correction” at the Moscow meeting. One of the persons in the  British IPCC delegation said: “We had to do so otherwise there would be no trend. In other words, the IPCC had to keep the propaganda going that sea level was still rising and in fact accelerating.

Same graph but tilted upward to show a sea level rise of 2.3mm per year. 

Note: ENSO is the El Nino Southern Oscillation and is a natural climate pattern that involves the warming and cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The cycle occurs every 2-7 years.  An ENSO cycle can lead to a temporary rise in sea level. (As seen on the graph). 

In a later booklet produced by Nils Morner, he tilted the graph back to its original position.   

This tampering with results cannot be disputed because it was seen firsthand. I have copies of graphs alleged to have been changed to fit the warming narrative when in fact the true picture was one of cooling, but they cannot be substantiated unfortunately.  

Let’s look at another Island –Kiribati.   Journalist James Agresti wrote back in 2018 that  Journalists were travelling to the island believing that Global warming was causing it to sink into the ocean, and it would soon be gone. However the people of Kiribati  told the reporters that that was not the case.  The journalists were disconnected from reality. 

Kiribati is composed almost entirely of coral reef islands. These are typically found in the Pacific Ocean and are primarily made of silt, gravel and sand that have accumulated on coral reefs. Because these islands are only slightly above sea level and are made of loosely bound sediments they are considered to be among the most vulnerable places on Earth to rising sea levels. 

In a recent (2018), Washington Post feature entitled the “sinking state,” a staff writer, Joshua Keating,  claimed that “not long from now” rising seas caused by global warming will “probably” destroy Kiribati. He also said that Kiribati May be “one of the first  nations to be wiped out by the effects of climate change.”  “Its capital city Tarawa, where nearly half the country’s 110,000 residents live could be substantially under water.” 

So the Maldives were supposed to be one of the first but they seem to have lost their first place!

BUT, Kiribati has actually grown. 

In contrast to these claims, the authors of a 2010 paper in the journal “Global and Planetary Change,” used aerial and satellite photographs to conduct the first quantitative analysis of physical changes in 27 central Pacific coral reef islands. This included those in Kiribati. The study examined four islands in Tarawa over periods of 31-65 years and found that all four islands exhibited an increase in island area.  Three of the islands increased by  30%, 16.3% and 12.5% while the fourth by 2%.  The study found that these increases were not unique to Kiribati. 

Then the authors of a 2013 paper in the journal “Sustainability Science,” also used aerial and satellite photographs to examine changes in shoreline position on the majority of reef islands in Tarawa from 1943 to 2007. They found that these islands substantially increased in size. This study showed that the total area of reef islands on Tarawa atoll has increased over the past decades. 

A 2016 study published in the journal “Nature”,  indicated that the Earth had gained a net total of  5000 square miles of coastal lend from 1985 to 2015. 

So what really is happening as regards sea level rise?  The following graph shows what has been happening for the past 20,000 years. The graph is the best fit from several places listed down the right hand side. Note that the graph is levelling out, indicating that sea level rise is approaching zero.  Sea level rise at present is about 1.8mm per year. In 2100 at this rate the rise in sea level would be about 14cm (somewhere between 5 and 6 inches.)  But the graph tells us that sea level rise is decreasing.  So the rise by 2100 may well be very small, not enough to worry about. 

 

According to the Heartland Institute, the highest quality tide gauges around the world show no evidence of any acceleration since 1920. A 2017 report released from the Heartland  Institute by geophysicist Dennis Hedke analysed data from ten coastal cities with long and reliable sea level records. Hedke found there was no correlation between changes in sea level at these locations and rising carbon dioxide levels. 

It appears that in some places at present, there is no change in sea level. In others a slight rise, and in yet others a slight fall.  What is apparent is that sea level is not responding to changes in carbon dioxide. 

A word about ice melting

Now the climate alarmists claim that because of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet is melting and putting fresh water into the ocean in the northern latitudes.   The Greenland ice sheet is indeed melting, but not from global warming, but from underneath. Japanese researchers under Dr. Genti Toyokini of Tohuku University recently discovered a flow of molten rocks known as a mantle plume rising up beneath the island. It melts Greenland’s ice from below. The plume has two branches and the second one arises under Iceland and is responsible for the active volcano in recent times there. At this stage, it doesn’t appear to be raising sea levels.

Arctic:  The Arctic is simply a mass of floating ice. Any ice that is floating and melts does not raise the sea level. That includes all floating ice such as ice shelves and icebergs.  

Antarctic:  Despite rises in carbon Dioxide levels the Antarctic region has recorded no average temperature rise in the last 70 years, and in 2021 saw its coldest 6 month winter since records began in the 1950’s. It is possible the lack of warming extended back much further. This lack of warming over a significant portion of the Earth, undermines the unproven hypothesis that the Carbon Dioxide humans are putting into the atmosphere is the main determinant of global climate.  In 2021 the Antarctic had the coldest winter since records began in 1957, a fact largely ignored by the media. Two climate scientists Singh, and Polvani, have noted that the Antarctic sea ice has modestly expanded, and warming has been nearly non-existent over much of the ice sheet.  

A NASA study has found that the mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet are greater than the losses. This contrasts with the IPCC reports which say that overall the Antarctic is losing ice. The extra snowfall that began 10,000 years ago has been slowly accumulating on the ice sheet compacting into ice over millennia, thickening the ice in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctic by an average of 1.7cm per year. This small thickening sustained over thousands of years and spread over vast areas corresponds to a very large gain in ice, enough to outweigh the losses from the fast flowing glaciers in other parts of the continent. The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 mm per year away. Contrast this to what the IPCC say: Antarctica is contributing 0.27mm per year to sea level rise .

On June 6^th 2019 NASA reluctantly published research from Greenland. It concerns the Jakobshavn glacier in western Greenland. This glacier is notorious for being the world’s fastest moving glacier. This glacier has spent decades in retreat but there was an unexpected advance in 2016. The glacier was growing and thickening. New data collected in 2019 showed that the glacier had grown for the third year in a row.  

As far as sea level rise is concerned use common sense. Check out a beach you know from your childhood. Can you notice any changes? Just be aware that land subsidence is not sea level rise, and storm surges causing coastal erosion are nothing to do with sea level rise. 

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.