Alarmed by an intelligence assessment that Iran will be able to produce nuclear weapons within months if not weeks, Israel has launched a massive air campaign aiming to destroy the country’s nuclear program.
Israel’s air strikes hit Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz, as well as its air defences and long-range missile facilities.
Among the dead are Hossein Salami, the chief of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps; Mohammad Bagheri, the commander-in-chief of the military; and two prominent nuclear scientists.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised “severe punishment” in response. Iran could potentially target Israel’s own nuclear sites and US bases across the Persian Gulf. Israel claimed Iran launched 100 drones towards it just hours after the attack.
The Middle East is yet again on the precipice of a potentially devastating war with serious regional and global implications.
Among the dead are Hossein Salami, the chief of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps; Mohammad Bagheri, the commander-in-chief of the military; and two prominent nuclear scientists.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised “severe punishment” in response. Iran could potentially target Israel’s own nuclear sites and US bases across the Persian Gulf. Israel claimed Iran launched 100 drones towards it just hours after the attack.
The Middle East is yet again on the precipice of a potentially devastating war with serious regional and global implications.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps chief commander Hossein Salami speaks during a ceremony at Tehran’s defence museum in 2019. Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA
Stalled nuclear talks
The Israeli operations come against the backdrop of a series of inconclusive nuclear talks between the United States and Iran. These negotiations began in mid-April at President Donald Trump’s request and aimed to reach a deal within months.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposed the talks, pressing for military action instead as the best option to halt Iran’s nuclear program.
The diplomatic efforts had stalled in recent weeks over Trump’s demand that Iran agree to a zero-uranium enrichment posture and destroy its stockpile of some 400 kilograms of enriched uranium at a 60% purity level. This could be rapidly enriched further to weapons-grade level.
Tehran refused to oblige, calling it a “non-negotiable”.
Netanyahu has long pledged to eliminate what he has called the Iranian “octopus” – the regime’s vast network of regional affiliates, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the regime of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, and the Houthi militants in Yemen.
Following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 2023, Israel’s military has considerably degraded these Iranian affiliates, one by one. Now, Netanyahu has now gone for beheading the octopus.
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Trump keeping his distance
Netanyahu has in the past urged Washington to join him in a military operation against Iran. However, successive US leaders have not found it desirable to ignite or be involved in another Middle East war, especially after the debacle in Iraq and its failed Afghanistan intervention.
Despite his strong commitment to Israel’s security and regional supremacy, Trump has been keen to follow this US posture, for two important reasons.
He has not forgotten Netanyahu’s warm congratulations to Joe Biden when he defeated Trump in the 2020 US presidential election.
Nor has Trump been keen to be too closely aligned with Netanyahu at the expense of his lucrative relations with oil-rich Arab states. He recently visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on a trip to the Middle East, while bypassing Israel.
Indeed, this week, Trump had warned Netanyahu not to do anything that could undermine the US nuclear talks with Iran. He has been keen to secure a deal to boost his self-declared reputation as a peace broker, despite not having done very well so far on this front.
But as the nuclear talks seemed to be reaching a dead end, Netanyahu decided now was the moment to act.
The Trump administration has distanced itself from the attack, saying it had no involvement. It remains to be seen whether the US will now get involved to defend Israel if and when Iran retaliates.
A satellite image showing the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran on Jan. 24, 2025. Maxar Technologies/AP
What a wider war could mean
Israel has shown it has the capacity to unleash overwhelming firepower, causing serious damage to Iran’s nuclear and military facilities and infrastructure. But the Iranian Islamic regime also has the capability to retaliate, with all the means at its disposal.
Despite the fact the Iranian leadership faces serious domestic issues on political, social and economic fronts, it still has the ability to target Israeli and US assets in the region with advanced missiles and drones.
It also has the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20–25% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments flow. Importantly, Iran has strategic partnerships with both Russia and China, as well.
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Depending on the nature and scope of the Iranian response, the current conflict could easily develop into an uncontrollable regional war, with none of the parties emerging as victor. A major conflict could not only further destabilise what is already a volatile Middle East, but also upend the fragile global geopolitical and economic landscape.
The Middle East cannot afford another war. Trump had good reasons to restrain Netanyahu’s government while the nuclear negotiations were taking place to see if he could hammer out a deal.
Whether this deal can be salvaged amid the chaos is unclear. The next round of negotiations was due to be held on Sunday in Oman, but Iran said it would not attend and all talks were off until further notice.
Iran and the US, under Barack Obama, had agreed a nuclear deal before – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Although Netanyahu branded it “the worst deal of the century”, it appeared to be holding until Trump, urged by Netanyahu, unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018.
Now, Netanyahu has taken the military approach to thwart Iran’s nuclear program. And the region – and rest of the world – will have to wait and see if another war can be averted before it’s too late.
Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University; and Vice Chancellor's Strategic Fellow, Victoria University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article
9 comments:
Israel should tell Iran if does not get rid of nuclear bomb making capabilities it will bomb its oil facilities and it will have no income.
“Why did Israel defy Trump”? They didn’t. Trump has admitted that they knew all along.
Israel wants to dominate the entire world. They have a parasitic relationship with the US where Israel has been conducting genocide for over eighty years and gets the United States taxpayers to fund their war crimes.
It is a measure of just how powerful the stranglehold the Zionists hold over the United States that both countries are about to embark on a crusade to destroy Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program. You know, the one that doesn’t exist and hasn’t since at least 2003. All eighteen US intelligence agree. Iran has no nuclear weapons program. So nuking Iran, which is Israel’s intention, cannot destroy what doesn’t exist.
Israel is the only country in the middle east not in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT) and is nuclear armed. They don’t obey international laws or the Geneva Convention or borders.
Tulsi Gabbard is the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) for the United States. Two months ago, she testified in congress that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon”. In a startling new video, she directly warns we are "Closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, and "Political elite and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers; they are confident they will have access to nuclear shelters for themselves and their families, that regular people won't have access to."
Did they, or were they simply doing America’s bidding?
Trump seems to think diplomacy is still possible. After these strikes by Israel, it is impossible (which was Israel's intention). Marco Rubio came out initially and said that Israel did this unilaterally; Trump then says the US has known about it for months. Someone is lying, or the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.
It seems that the President (and the US public) don't want war, but the Israelis did - so the US will get war. What does this dynamic tell us about whose in charge in Washington?
It is clear what Israel intended here: 1, end the possibility of US/Iranian diplomacy by bombing Iran; 2, provoke a response by Iran that requires direct US involvement. As always, the US was do the heavy lifting, while the Israelis sit back and enjoy the benefits.
Israel has always depended on the US since day one of its establishment: Israel has no ability to function as a nation (let alone "defend itself") without US support and resources. I effect, Israel is a charity case, taking with both hands but never giving back anything in return.
The US could end the conflicts in the ME simply by cutting ties with Israel, because Israel's belligerence stems from knowing it can rely on US support. but its political system is so captured by the Israel Lobby, any president who tried to do that would likely be assassinated (which, as we see from how Israeli intelligence regularly assassinates other politicians and high level figures in Iran and elsewhere, would just be a continuation of how they prefer to conduct politics).
Anon at 10:54
"Did they, or were they simply doing America’s bidding?"
Look at the facts here: America does Israel's bidding, not the other way around. They've been fighting Israel's wars in the middle east for 25 years, and Iran is the final piece in Israel's plan to have no competition in the region. How is this good for America? Who knows.
The reason the US is "the Great Satan" to many of the Arabs is solely because of its role as Israel's enforcer, before which, America had good relations with the Muslim states.
When you understand the dynamic, you can clearly see why Trump's "America First" platform from 2016 was resisted so strongly, because, if America were to be put first, Israel would no longer be first in order of priority. America's number one problem is that they are controlled by a 5th column who care more about Israel than the United States.
Anon 'Israel has been conducting genocide for over eighty years'.
What a pity the Israelis are so useless they can't do the job after 80 years. It's almost as if they aren't conducting genocide at all.
To anon 8.38. How do you get the idea that Israel wants to dominate the world! The Islamic movement has stated openly that they want to obliterate Israel from the map. Israel wants to be left alone, not rule the world, but its neighbors ensure that will not happen
There is a definite thread of antisemitism running through too many of these comments. Shame on you for your historical ignorance and your ignorance of the present Middle East. Keep your eyes and ears open without prejudice fomented over centuries and realise the fragility of the world’s democracies.
When a Radical Islamic regime declares "Death to America" "Death to Israel" and "Death to England" - we should believe them. Israel wants to dominate the world? What tosh!! Give us a break! They want secure borders and a strong economy like any other democracy. But it seems they are not ever allowed to have a moment's peace. This is a defensive war. Israel would fit into Northland. How many nuclear warheads would it take to flatten the whole country? Never again means never again, and we should believe them.
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