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Friday, June 13, 2025

Ian Bradford: Is the Increase in CO2 Coming from Oceans, not Humans?


We will begin with a bit of background. Many elements have what we call isotopes. Now a normal atom has equal numbers of protons, electrons, and neutrons. When we have different numbers of neutrons than normal we have isotopes. The most common isotope of carbon is carbon 12. This has 6 protons in its nucleus and 6 neutrons. Then there is carbon 13 with 6 protons and 7 neutrons. Finally, we have carbon 14 with 6 protons and 8 neutrons. This isotope is radioactive.

· C12 is about 98.9% of all carbon.

· C13 is about 1% and C14 makes up a very tiny amount. C14 is not present in fossil fuels. This is because fossil fuels were formed millions of years ago, and since the half life of C14 is only 5730 years, by the time they are dug up, virtually all the radiation has gone. So one of the alarmists’ arguments is that since carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not contain C14 then the excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be attributed to fossil fuels.

· Plants have a preference for C12 rather than C13, but they do absorb C13, so when plants, trees etc are burnt, C12plus a slightly reduced amount of C13 is released into the atmosphere. This means the ratio of C13 to C12 is reduced slightly - the alarmists’ second argument.

· The third argument is that when fossil fuels are burnt oxygen is used. The alarmists say that oxygen levels have decreased.

Looking at the third argument: As more carbon dioxide is put into the atmosphere plant growth increases substantially, as carbon dioxide is plant food. In fact the whole planet has been greening over the past few years: More plants, therefore more oxygen. Oxygen levels have actually increased NOT decreased.
















The picture gives the greening of the Earth from 1982 to 2015. Most areas have seen a considerable increase in plant growth. The small chart at the bottom gives the change in leaf area and there is a large amount of green on the Earth map corresponding to the right of the chart.

THE VERY WARM INTERIOR OF THE EARTH

On July 18th 2011, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an agency of the US government declared in Scientific American and also in Nature Geoscience that more than half the heat that keeps planet Earth from freezing comes from the fission reactor in the Earth’s core. The other half of the heat that keeps life possible on Earth comes from the sun. The Earth’s core is at a temperature of 6230 degrees C which is equal to the temperature of the surface of the sun.

No computer models have included the heat from the Earth’s core.

Further, there has been, until recently, no data representing the energy released from the huge number of volcanoes erupting under the oceans every year, in any document found regarding climate change. Volcanic activity is increasing, especially since 1990.
















The graph gives the number of volcanic eruptions per decade since 1850 up to 2010. These are land volcanoes, but it is likely undersea volcanoes follow the same pattern.

THE AXIAL SEAMOUNT

Axial Seamount is the busiest volcano in the Pacific Northwest. Its Peak is about 480 km off the Oregon coast and almost 1.6 km beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean. It belongs to a chain of volcanoes which stretch from Oregon to near Alaska, a distance of about 1800km. This chain sits on the boundary between two plates. Hot magma pushes up along the boundary building underwater volcanoes. Axial seamount is the latest in the chain and is huge. Its base covers an area the size of the entire city of Austen Texas. Its lava flows are extensive. The volcano has generated lava flows 15 m thick, and the total eruptive volume is estimated to be up to 76,000 cubic km.

Under the oceans is the mid ocean ridge. It is about 65,000km long - the Earth’s longest mountain chain and consists of many active volcanoes. It is in a continuous state of volcanic eruption and seismic activity and is always leaking out lava.

Here’s something interesting.

We have periods when La Nina dominates our weather. La Nina generally means we have a cooler spell. In 2011 we had La Nina. Consequently, we should have had a slightly cooler year. In fact we had a warm year. That year 2011 just happened to coincide with an eruption of Axial Seamount. In 1998, we had another La Nina and so again we would have expected a cool year. But again, it was a warm year. Once again it coincided with an eruption of Axial Seamount. There was another La Nina in 2015 and again we had another warm year, which also coincided with the eruption of Axial Seamount.

Superficially at least, it appears that the giant Axial Seamount has a global warming effect when it erupts. Can the warming of the ocean currents by the sub–oceanic lava flows be directly linked to one single volcanic eruption? It should be mentioned that the warmed water is moved to other areas by the ocean currents, and the rotation of the Earth.

The oceans are warming. They are warming because volcanoes are erupting beneath the oceans all over the world. The temperature of the magma can reach as high as 1200 Deg C. The water it touches turns to steam at about 700 deg C.

When deep ocean water is warmed by a submarine volcano it undergoes several changes. The most immediate effect is an increase in temperature, which can be significant near the vent. The heated water containing dissolved minerals and gases, then rises forming plumes or currents. These rising currents can impact the surrounding ocean’s temperature and chemical composition. The water near the vent can reach up to 88 deg C. While the impact of individual vents is localised, submarine volcanic activity can contribute to larger scale marine heat waves and changes in ocean circulation.

A shallow undersea eruption can warm the surface water. This will cause a temporary increase in surface temperature.

Look at the picture of the sea temperatures. The brown indicates warmer than normal temperatures. It’s interesting that the right hand side of each of these three areas of warmer sea temperatures lie on that chain of volcanoes from Oregon to Alaska, which is the boundary between two plates. The question then is did a number of undersea volcanoes warm the sea along this chain then the ocean’s currents and/or the Earth’s rotation move the warmer sea to the left? Note also that volcanic activity is increasing. It is increasing on land, so could it to be increasing undersea also? The surface temperature in these areas is between 1and 4 degrees C warmer than normal.
















It appears that a relatively shallow undersea volcano can cause a rise in sea surface temperature. But what if there is a chain of undersea erupting volcanoes?

RISING OCEAN TEMPERATURES RELEASE CARBON DIOXIDE FROM THE OCEANS.

Cold water holds more carbon dioxide than warm water. Recently too it has been shown that sea grass emits carbon dioxide in large amounts as the oceans warm.

Now let’s refer back to the climate alarmists:

Carbon dioxide is released from fossil fuels when coal and oil are burnt. There is no C14­ in fossil fuels because it has all decayed away over millions of years. The composition of carbon dioxide from the oceans is similar in composition to that in the atmosphere. That is C12 with a small amount of C13. So we cannot really distinguish between carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels and that released from the oceans. The oceans are the largest natural source of carbon dioxide holding about 70% of all carbon dioxide. So we have humans putting out a very small 4% of all carbon dioxide, and the oceans putting out very substantially more.

So we have seen what just one undersea volcano can do. What if there are more?

TWO GROUNDBREAKING STUDIES

Just in the last month or two, these groundbreaking studies may reinforce the idea that the present increase in carbon dioxide may be coming from the oceans.

Firstly, a University of Manchester study by a team led by Alexander Riddell, deployed cutting edge sensors on a helicopter to measure emissions from the Soufriere Hills volcano in Montserrat. Their findings were published in “Science Advances.” The new technology found that the Soufriere Hills volcano emits THREE times more carbon dioxide than earlier estimates suggested. So the estimated carbon dioxide emissions from all volcanoes could be way out. This includes undersea volcanoes.

Meanwhile, researchers at SOEST, who included Paul Wessel and David Sandwell, used high resolution radar satellite data to map the ocean floor. Their study published in “Earth and Space Science”, identified 19,325 new sea mounts - undersea volcanoes - and this brought the total to over 43,000. But only one quarter of the sea floor has been mapped so most of the undersea giants are still unmapped. These are all potential carbon dioxide sources.

This study emphasises the role of undersea volcanoes in ocean mixing, where currents around seamounts create wake vortices that drive upwelling, pulling carbon dioxide rich deep water to the surface, and into the atmosphere.

So what do we have? Potentially there are at least 150,000 sea mounts. A substantial number of these could be pushing out lava. Possibly enough to warm significant parts of the oceans by between 1 and 4 degrees C. So while the seamounts are pushing out three times the amount of carbon dioxide than previously thought, the warmer parts of the oceans are also releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

WHAT HAPPENED TO CO2 LEVELS WHEN COVID WAS IN FULL SWING?

It is estimated that carbon dioxide emissions from human activities dropped by about 8% during the Covid 19 lockdowns. There was a reduction in activity of industries, shipping, air flights, and so on. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is mapped at Mauna Loa. Below is the graph for the period 1960 to about 2022.
















Now 8% is a substantial drop and so we would expect that if humans were responsible for the points on the graph then we would expect to see a dip in the graph from about 2019 when lockdowns occurred. We don’t see any dip, suggesting the carbon dioxide was coming from somewhere else. This lends weight to the argument that this increasing carbon dioxide is coming from the oceans.

There is no real empirical evidence that carbon dioxide is causing climate change. However, suppose it is. How are the climate alarmists going to stop undersea volcanic eruptions?

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

It does not matter where most of the "poisonous" carbon dioxide comes from because the lunatic fringe and doomsday occultists will continue to preach Armageddon no matter the source.
Science will be completely ignored as the anti-humanists are given a free pedestal by a frenzied mass liberal media.
We kid ourselves that since the age of enlightenment and the scientific revolution we have progressed, and reason prevailed.
That only applies to a very select elite while the ignorant masses still like to keep their hand in on the occasional witch burning or stoning.

Peter said...

I remember listening to a talk by Prof Ian Plimer wherein he stated we have some 1800 terrestrial volcanoes. Those subterranean undersea volcanoes number around 3.4 million by comparison. While only a fraction are active in both instances, we are surely dreaming if we think we, and we alone, are the cause of climate change through our actions increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Anonymous said...

So 4% of Co2 emissions are man made (or anthropogenic if I wanted to sound educatedly woke) and NZ share of those is 0.17%. That means we’re responsible for 0.0068% of total Co2 emissions.
7 one thousands of one percent. There can be no argument, NZ should close down immediately or we’re doomed I tell ye, doomed!

Anonymous said...

Thanks Ian, the immensity of our natural world is overwhelming , as always it will keep doing what it has always done irrespective of what us mere mortals do.
I hope those alamists feel a bit unwell as they read your columns.

Anonymous said...

There has been books written along these lines but never have I seen MSM espousing such. It’s all too logical I suppose.

GERRY said...

Ian's last point should have been first !!!! If closing down industry as happened in Covid did not alter CO2 levels what can man do that WILL do it ?? THIS POINT NEEDS TO BE SHOUTED FROM THE ROOF TOPS CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT HEARS IT, OR IS TIRED OF HEARING IT, AND THE MASS GETS IT INTO THEIR HEADS !!! Probably too much to ask !

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