It is a snapshot, like them all. But the numbers for one lot are so stark, alarm bells should be ringing.
So, who would a farmer vote for? You would say National and you would be right.
Broadly the farming community is conservative, always has been.
That, partly, is because they are their own masters, they are hard workers, they are self-reliant, they are at the cutting edge of the economy, and they know how life works.
So 54% said they'd vote for National and 19% said ACT.
Here is where it gets interesting and/or alarming.
8% said they'd vote for NZ First. They're the only party with farmers at about the same level as they are nationally.
Labour is on 3%. How bad is that? Even with a margin of error, even with a massive margin of error, Labour should be shocked at that figure.
Every party has their sweet spot, some parties more overtly so, e.g. the Greens and environmentalists, or communists.
ACT have some upmarket urban liberals. New Zealand First having a provincial number higher than the city wouldn’t surprise me
But National and Labour, as major parties should be, by their very nature are broad-based. After all, it is Labour and National, and Labour and National alone, that will lead any given Government on any given day.
You have to at least have a half-decent level of support even in your weakest areas.
Farming is particularly important, given we are a farming nation, the foreign receipts we get from the land and the value of our free trade deals.
To have a major party so out of touch with such a large sector strikes me as being astonishing, if not embarrassing, if not unheard of.
My suspicion is the current version of Labour is particularly unpalatable, and this is going to be their major issue next year.
For all voters the damage done to the country is still fresh in most of our minds, but no more so than farmers. The climate obsession, special land area designation, Three Waters with Māori overreach, no gas, and more paperwork.
Farmers hated it. A lot of us hated it.
But in general polls Labour are competitive. On the land they are pariahs.
At 3% that is a massive hill for Hipkins and co to climb between now and October next year.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
That, partly, is because they are their own masters, they are hard workers, they are self-reliant, they are at the cutting edge of the economy, and they know how life works.
So 54% said they'd vote for National and 19% said ACT.
Here is where it gets interesting and/or alarming.
8% said they'd vote for NZ First. They're the only party with farmers at about the same level as they are nationally.
Labour is on 3%. How bad is that? Even with a margin of error, even with a massive margin of error, Labour should be shocked at that figure.
Every party has their sweet spot, some parties more overtly so, e.g. the Greens and environmentalists, or communists.
ACT have some upmarket urban liberals. New Zealand First having a provincial number higher than the city wouldn’t surprise me
But National and Labour, as major parties should be, by their very nature are broad-based. After all, it is Labour and National, and Labour and National alone, that will lead any given Government on any given day.
You have to at least have a half-decent level of support even in your weakest areas.
Farming is particularly important, given we are a farming nation, the foreign receipts we get from the land and the value of our free trade deals.
To have a major party so out of touch with such a large sector strikes me as being astonishing, if not embarrassing, if not unheard of.
My suspicion is the current version of Labour is particularly unpalatable, and this is going to be their major issue next year.
For all voters the damage done to the country is still fresh in most of our minds, but no more so than farmers. The climate obsession, special land area designation, Three Waters with Māori overreach, no gas, and more paperwork.
Farmers hated it. A lot of us hated it.
But in general polls Labour are competitive. On the land they are pariahs.
At 3% that is a massive hill for Hipkins and co to climb between now and October next year.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
4 comments:
Hipkins doesn't care what farmers think because he knows that very few will vote for him no matter what he does. It's like expecting Maori to vote National, except that Luxon goes all out to please them anyway at the expense of everyone else.
Most farmers have had conatct with maori one way or another and have learned by experience their ways. So they are not going to vote for a party which is determined to adopt pro maori policy and further favour them. (Luxon's sinking of scores of million into marae is completely counter productive. It simply supports the institutions where much of the anti clonist, anti National attitude is fomented.
It is the highest impertinence and presumption…in kings and politicians, to pretend to watch over the economy of private people.
They are themselves always, and without any exception the greatest spendthrift’s in society. If their own extravagance does not ruin the state, that of their subjects never will.
It's hardly news that there are no votes for Labour in the country. That point was precisely articulated by Trevor de Cleene at a meeting I once attended in Palmerston North shortly after the Fourth Labour Government wad elected. It was before the full package of Rogernomics had been delivered and de Cleene was sharing some of Labour's proposed rural policies with an audience of farm accountants. He was told very loudly that "you will never get away with it" but responded yes we will because there are no votes for Labour in the country, which is why we are starting with the farmers. Then he reminded the audience that voters had very short memories and predicted Labour would be returned at the next election. And so it came to pass. And the farmers, and the country, were the winners. Present day Labour has the same political attitude but there's no sign of any redeeming policy package needed to resurrect our economy like last time. And there's definitely no sign of the next Roger Douglas we will need to give Labour the political leadership to drive through change. de Cleene may have treated the farmers with contempt but they came to respect Labour's reforms. Hipkins just treats the farmers with contempt.
Post a Comment
Thanks for engaging in the debate!
Because this is a public forum, we will only publish comments that are respectful and do NOT contain links to other sites. We appreciate your cooperation.