David Leis: Marriage rates are falling in Canada and the social costs are rising

Frontier President David Leis spotlights I Do? by Mrozek and Mitchell, warning that Canada’s marriage decline carries steep social costs. Policy punishes commitment, culture shuns the topic—and the silence is damaging.

Marriage matters, but government policy still penalizes those who commit to it

In a culture increasingly focused on individualism and personal fulfillment, we seem to have forgotten how to talk about something essential to both personal and societal flourishing: marriage.

I recently had the privilege of speaking with two thoughtful researchers and authors—Peter Jon Mitchell and Andrea Mrozek—about their new book, I Do: Why Marriage Still Matters. Both are senior fellows at Cardus, one of Canada’s leading non-partisan think tanks focused on the health of our core social institutions.

Their message was clear and refreshingly candid: Canada has a marriage problem, and we’re not talking about it.

Marriage rates are declining. Fewer Canadians are entering into long-term marital relationships. The average age at which Canadians marry for the first time is rising. Fertility rates are plummeting—now sitting at a historic low of 1.26 children per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. Many Canadian women say they want more children than they are having, and one of the most cited reasons is their inability to find a suitable long-term partner.

This matters—and not just for nostalgic or sentimental reasons.

Mitchell and Mrozek lay out in their book and our conversation the mounting evidence that marriage is a social good. Not a perfect one, not without its challenges, but still a foundational institution that contributes powerfully to the well-being of men, women and especially children.

Children raised in stable, married-parent households tend to do better across a wide array of metrics: higher educational attainment, better mental and physical health, less involvement with the criminal justice system and greater economic stability. And while good outcomes can certainly emerge from other family forms, the data consistently show that marriage—particularly “institutional marriage” based on mutual commitment and long-term partnership—provides the most reliable structure for raising the next generation.

Mitchell refers to this as the “marriage advantage.” And it’s not merely about money. Even among lower-income families, children raised in married households tend to fare better than their peers from non-married homes. There’s something about the bond—a public promise of enduring care and responsibility—that offers stability and signals long-term commitment.

But here’s the problem: in Canada, we aren’t having this conversation. We talk about housing, health care, taxes, and even loneliness and social isolation, but rarely do we connect these social challenges to the breakdown or delay of family formation.

Why the silence?

Mrozek believes it’s a mix of cultural discomfort, misguided feminist critiques and a desire not to offend. Dominant narratives in academia often view marriage as an oppressive institution, particularly for women. And so we’ve developed a kind of allergy to even raising the subject.

But this cultural reticence is costing us. When marriage becomes an optional lifestyle accessory rather than a core institution, fewer people commit. When people delay marriage in search of the perfect moment—financial stability, emotional maturity, career success—that moment often never comes, and they risk missing the chance to start a family entirely And when marriage is cast aside in public policy—or actively penalized through tax and benefit systems—society quietly undermines the very institution it depends on for social cohesion.

There’s an irony in all this: many of the same voices who decry income inequality, social fragmentation and the loss of community rarely point to the erosion of marriage and family as a contributing factor. Yet, as Nobel laureate James Heckman has said, “The family is the whole story” when it comes to understanding a range of social outcomes.

None of this is to say that every marriage is successful or that marriage should be mandatory. As Mrozek notes, we’re not advocating for state-enforced matrimony. But we should at least be honest about what the research shows: that healthy marriages help people thrive—and when families thrive, societies thrive.

Marriage isn’t a relic of the past. It’s a living institution with proven benefits. And if we want to build a stronger, more resilient Canada, we need to put it back on the policy and cultural agenda.

That begins with open, respectful conversations—like the one I had with Peter Jon Mitchell and Andrea Mrozek—that bridge personal experience, social science and a shared desire for the common good.

It’s time to reclaim the conversation.

David Leis is President and CEO of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and host of the Leaders on the Frontier podcast.