I reckon it's gonna blow out and there's all the signs this thing is gonna blow out.
Even when the Waikato University was itself putting in less money, which is $100 million, there were questions about whether it could afford it because Waikato University's debt level is maxed out at the moment.
So everybody looked at it and went, are you actually gonna be able to afford it?
Well now, it not only has to put in the $100 million, it has to put in $150 million between itself and some philanthropists it needs to find.
Now, what do you think happens if for whatever reason, it cannot quite find that money? Who do you think is going to be called upon to fund the gap?
The long-suffering taxpayer. That's a blowout for us.
Now, that's not even mentioning the chances that this thing costs much more than what they say it's gonna cost. I'm very suspicious about how it is that a $380 million project suddenly got cut down to $230 million without anything actually being cut out of it.
How did that happen?
And even at the higher estimate, which was $380 million, I was already worried that that wasn't really going to cover it, because there were warnings then that it was going to blow out - because the thing is being rushed.
Treasury said that whenever we rush things, like the Dunedin Hospital build, we end up with unexpected and often urgent cost escalations.
Now, I'm incredibly cynical about the fact that this has somehow managed to radically cut the costs of a scheme that was being questioned for being too expensive and unnecessary when we already have two medical schools.
And I worry very much that we have been presented the best case scenario to get us across the line on a National Party election promise that actually wasn't stacking up anymore.
And that once we've invested in this and the shovels are in the ground and the costs start to blow out, we go - well, we're already pouring money into it, we simply will have to continue pouring money into it, which is how this always goes.
So I hope that this comes in under budget, and if it does, I absolutely will apologize for what I'm saying right now, but I don't think it will.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show HERE - where this article was sourced.
14 comments:
A cost blowout is not a prediction; more like a 100% certainty.
The new medical school might also result in plenty of highly paid non-jobs in a bloated bureaucracy.
Wouldn't an extension to the Otago Med school have been more efficient financially?
The stupid government just needs to increase the intake of students at Dunedin and Auckland. I believe both universities have said they could train more doctors. Where is the independent cost benefit analysis for this political project.
To be fair you could replace the topic of Waikato medical school in your article with any other significant infrastructure project title, established by either the left of the right and chances are it's going to blow its budget
There needs to be a minimum allowance of 30% for a koha to local Iwi.
Scrap the Māori seats. Bring an end to the Waitangi Tribunal. Get IWI to pay tax. All doable. The Charities Commission did it to the Waipareira Trust charity status. Learn from Peter to pay Paul!
Waipereira haven’t been deregistered yet. Tamihere now has a legal case against the Crown. I believe any deregistration has been delayed until the outcome of the case is known. Goodness only knows how long it will take for the case to be heard, let alone a judicial decision announced. How slowly the wheels turn. TPM funding is secure for a while yet I’d say, though at least the pot should be running down rather than being constantly topped up with whanau ora funds courtesy of the taxpayer.
My friend is in commercial construction in Asia . They quote , On time On budget and deliver . He wrote a book on it and has University Qualification in Construction (UK). The secret is when the plans and engineering drawings are tendered, the average tender price of the process is chosen . Then there are NO alterations , NOT ONE, not even a small change and the client gets their project On time On budget. When the project is completed and paid for the client can do what they wish, but only after completion . It is not just the cost of an alteration in construction , it is the unintended cost consequences that have to be changed right to the bitter end.
National obfuscates about the students being selected on a race basis, or on marks required.
It will make med degrees from Waikato Uni about as derisable as Auckland with the mandatory Maori propaganda papers.
Got to the second sentence and gave up. If a journalist can't write professional English I have no interest in what that person says - lazy language reflects lazy ideas and tells you what he/she thinks of the audience - disrespect. If this journalist is trying to repeatedly prove some sort of point then to me, it is pathetic.
Well, in theory any med school buildings will get used. Compare usage rates per dollar per square metre with some other new buildings at NZ unis....that blew out to, say, $70 million....
It breaks the duopoly and Waikato is a great place for a teaching hospital. The Waikato is now the center of 600,000 people.
It was the medical practitioners union that have constrained the intakes for years this smashes that wide open. Australia has a med school for every 1.2 million people we have half that.
So the article author and following comments "talk about" costs, over riding costs, blow out costs - but I have another question?
With Waikato Uni to become a training venue for future doctors, how much tuition time will be spent on -
- TOW
- learning Te Reo
- learning Maori sciences, tribal remedies
- learning Maori cultural aspects to how Doctors will examine, and apply any medicine/surgery that "fits" with Maori culture.
If, any one reading this, thinks over the top comment - Nah, both Auckland & Otago University are already starting to go "down that pathway"
Heather is right, especially since my sources tell me Waikato is bluffing that private philanthropists are making a significant contribution & that the PM's assertion otherwise is la la land. Should private funding do the financing, the best outcome would be for the medical school to be private - like Bond in Australia. Nothing the Nats are doing is being thought through.
The easiest way to sort the private philanthropists is by requiring the Government funds to be last cab off the rank and the private funds first funder and non refundable. Sorts the men out from the boys quickly.
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