Due to my current age related circumstances I have been able to watch most of the current consequential events in the Middle East as they unfold.
These events are perhaps the most transformational in my lifetime - because this time it seems to be the result of a planned, coordinated series of attacks with the prospect of a long lasting regional peace being the main objective.
And so far it all appears to be working simply because every attempt has been made to avoid the mistakes of previous similar invasions aimed at regime change.
Unfortunately there has been collateral damage in the form of unavoidable losses in both innocent human life and service personnel who just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Sadly, these deaths are part of the price freedom loving people’s must inevitably pay for their release from tyranny.
It is one of the terrible burdens of leadership responsibility, when making the decisions that will affect the lives of those you send into battle and those innocents living within the war zones.
Just by way of comparison, I am reminded of pre invasion calculations for deaths of soldiers, sailors and airmen associated with the D Day landings on the Normandy beaches in 1945 where the pre invasion casualty estimates were as high as 75% for some allied divisions.
Thankfully the actual figures turned out to be somewhat less than those predicted but to the compassionate observer, any number would weigh heavily on the minds of those responsible for the decision to go to war.
My guess is that any deaths (whether innocent of in the line of duty) will be the lasting feature in the minds of families who lost loved ones and will be a major determining factor in how the decisions are received at the next elections by those who are directly or indirectly affected by the actions taken on their behalf.
Time will tell as to how these historically momentous events play out in the post invasion political environment of those taking part but, given the results to date, it would appear this is a rare example of “fortune favouring the brave”.
Unless I am mistaken, this tactical surgical operation will become one of the most successful, transformational decisions since the defeat of Nazism in 1945.
I base my analysis on the efforts focused on the post invasion planning that have hopefully avoided the mistakes of the Iraq and Syrian overthrows of those brutal regimes.
Any successful outcome will depend on support given to the emerging government in the form of US or Middle Eastern guarantees of security for years after the shooting stops.
In the immediate aftermath following the overthrow, the fledging government will have enough on its hands concentrating on returning the living conditions and freedoms enjoyed by 90 million people to what it was 47 years ago.
Satisfying that part of the equation will be a huge undertaking on its own but will be only half of the price being paid for a lasting peace. Who takes responsibility for the other half remains to be seen.
It will be interesting to see who gets the next Nobel Peace medal.
Unfortunately, as per normal in the current political environment, the most worthy candidates will be the last to be considered.
Perhaps the next target for overthrow should be the woke and corrupt United Nations although thankfully, with the growing right wing movements throughout the world, this archaic institution and governments who support it are becoming less relevant on the world stage.
The new world order is giving authority back to the people and not before time.
Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.
14 comments:
You mean the tactical surgical operation that has closed the Hormuz strait, taken out data centres in two unrelated countries, and cut off a massive portion of global gas supply? That surgical tactical operation?
Republican spokesmen have said on multiple occasions that regime change is not a goal of the current happenings.
The USA and the Middle East don’t go together too well if you have any kind of medium term memory. To say it is hopeful that things will go better this time around is naïveté manifest. The price of oil is just one indicator we can see from here, there are many other indicators closer to the ground in Iran which you don’t see too.
We seem to have lost sight of the fact that governments and indeed the UN itself are there for the citizens of the world. Not themselves or a few wealthy or ideologically driven people. The UN is no longer acting in the best interests of people, therefore the US has temporarily stepped in to the void. Countries have let their defence capabilities slide and need to step up to the mark if they want to be global players. The UN is interfering in various countries sovereignty now. This suits minority groups. People are more important than oil or infrastructure. Iran only controls 4% of the world's oil exports and with a more progressive regime would probably gain immensely socially and economically. The Iranian people want this. The world wants it for them.
On the contrary 9.15 am, l think it is naive to ignore the current US President’s comments as most anti Trump people tend to do.
It is because, unlike most of his modern predecessors, Trump does what he says he will do that l am on safe ground being hopeful that things will go according to plan .
His record of achievements in the top job is second to none and is the main reason why the bulk of US citizenry have confidence in his ability to make things happen and why his political opponents are hoist on their own petard.
Their base is fast becoming a vociferous amalgam of radical left wing academics and broken down Democrat politicians well past their use by date. - Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris et al.
For the time being we don’t have a new world order. At this point we know that the old international work order doesn’t work - because the world we live in now is very different from the one in the 1950s.
Clive, Trump said he would end wars, cut spending, and release the Epstein files.
D-Day was in 1944
Yes Anon 12.21, that’s correct and, although these things take time, so far results suggest he will achieve all three objectives within this second term
This impressive record is in sharp contrast to those of his immediate predecessors and campaign opponents - all of whom campaigned on promises that they failed to honour.
And the reason for that is Trump’s promises were based on what his research and advice told him were realistic objectives.
But in the end, all it has taken is an honest commitment to do what is right on any given day rather than what is politically popular at the time.
Yet no other US President in my lifetime has suffered as much at the hands of corrupt political opponents at home and foreign ridicule abroad while trying to do things that benefit the US citizenry.
It is time for a world wide acknowledgement that this President is the first among many who takes his responsibilities to the nation seriously irrespective of the personal cost.
Surely, that is a refreshing change in a world order awash with dishonest actors .
When you read this article, and the comments that follow, I suggest that when reading the comment by Janine, 10.36AM, 9 March, you give considered thought to what has been placed in writing.
Just to emphasize the UN is a "total" failure and has been for many years.
Probably not known in NZ, but has been condemned, by many National Leaders, MP's, MSM for the 'constant' failure to address issues, but interfere in most, thus being noted for its Socialist approaches to "anything", which can only come from the leadership of the UN.
The current Secretary General is a very good example of this.
Where do we start, Clive?
“[T]hings will go according to plan”. What plan? He doesn’t seem to have settled on the cause for this war, let alone have a plan. But anyway, let’s hope that the outcome is an improvement on that preceding the attack, because the potential for a real catastrophe is very real. All predictions are off, so ignore Trump’s extravagant bravado and the clenched fist in the air. In fact, polls indicate that most Americans don’t support this attack. If this doesn’t turn out for the better, you just watch the backlash against the President. He’ll be dog tucker.
So, four leading democrats are “broken down Democrat politicians well past their use by date”. Topping the list is Hillary Clinton, who actually outpolled Trump in 2016, but lost the undemocratic collage system, which she almost certainly would have won if Trump hadn’t succeeded in silencing Stormy Daniels with his $130,000 under the counter hush money. It would have to be the best investment that guy’s ever made. And the ‘et al’, I assume, means that ALL Democrats are broken down and past their used-by date. Extravagant denigrations like that just reveals an inability to articulate a confident argument.
And the United Nations being ‘woke, corrupt and archaic’? It can’t be that bad, surely?
Finally, I thought that everyone knew that the D-Day landing took place in 1944.
Why would Trump want to release the Epstein files!?
Whoever said this was bang on "Stock markets are crashing, jobs numbers are terrible, we are heading to World War III, and we have two of the most incompetent 'leaders' in history. This is not good!"
A billion dollars a day that war (that’s not a war apparently) is costing them. And the share markets are tanking, and jobs are down, and oil prices are up. And the last time USA did a regime change in Iran, we ended up with the last lot.
As my uncle would say, it’s a dog’s breakfast!
Anon 5:54pm - I so identify with your bald honesty that I had to laugh. Yes indeed, the world is not at all in a good place and I’m very much afraid this Iran business will take much longer to resolve than anyone is daring to contemplate. I suspect the potential impacts are not yet being mentioned as we “mustn’t scare the horses”. Sincerely hope I am proved wrong.
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