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Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Matua Kahurangi: National slips, NZ First rises - voters are sending a message


The latest polling is grim for Christopher Luxon and the New Zealand National Party. Support is slipping again, and what was meant to be a steady alternative is starting to look uncertain and out of touch.




Luxon still struggles to connect. The corporate polish is there, but conviction is not. Voters are not just looking for tidy talking points, they want leadership. Right now, National feels reactive rather than in control.

Meanwhile, New Zealand First is rising. Under Winston Peters, it is once again tapping into voters who feel ignored by the political mainstream. It is not flashy, but it is effective.

Even more concerning for National, the New Zealand Labour Party remains ahead.


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The RNZ poll, published this morning, puts Labour in the top spot on 35.6%, up 0.6 points from January, while National is down 1.1 points to 30.8%.

New Zealand First continues its upward trajectory, climbing 0.8 points to 10.6%, its highest score since July 2017.

The Greens are on 10.1% (up 0.5 points), Act is on 7% (down 0.6 points) and Te Pāti Māori sits at 3.2% (up 0.2 points).

Matua Kahurangi is just a bloke sharing thoughts on New Zealand and the world beyond. No fluff, just honest takes. He blogs on https://matuakahurangi.com/ where this article was sourced.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I find it interesting, that here in NZ we have "people" who are Political Poll Addicted.
Any change in the "numbers" requires immediate keyboard activity to enumerate the thoughts of - who / how / when / why etc.
I have been following Australian Politics and see the media "gleefully" place in column inches the poll results for One Nation.
At the moment there are similarities between NZ 1st & One Nation - "the new people on the block".
Problem -
- NZ - there are people in NZ who have no time for Winston Peters, if asked many will possibly bring to the surface, his past mis- deeds. One of those and not forgiven, was his aligning with Jacinda Ardern.
Do not believe me, then read any comment here that is negative, go to You Tube and pick up on any Vlog on NZ First and read the comments - not nice/ negative.
If anyone can relate at to what WP has presented to NZ as Policy, which has been enacted - let me know.
- Australia - sadly Pauline Hanson has had a poor run at being a plausible MP and is not well liked by many Australians.
She has made no attempt to establish One Nation over the years it has been a focal point and is currently relying on "former & current MP's" who are deserting their former Parties - many not being considered - "money well spent". Yes there is a a 'swing' toward One Nation (South Australia State elections show this) - but she will have an uphill battle in Western Australia, Northern Territories and maybe Victoria.
For both NZ & Australia, us especially beware of the Polly Poles - they can change as quickly as the wind.

Anonymous said...

Winnie getting all the press. BrookeGPT resigning. Luxon floundering, Willis like a deer in the headlights, ACT falling apart. The beginning of the end for the right.

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