Dave Patterson: Iran Is Out of Time

President Donald Trump has run out of patience with Iran. In an abrupt turn, the US president canceled a planned trip to Islamabad, Pakistan, by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to meet with an Iranian negotiating team to attempt to find an end to the Iran conflict. It has become clear that Tehran is using the meetings to simply string the US along, and now Trump has had enough. So, as things stand, the US controls the Arabian Gulf, and Iran does not.

Talks With Iran Were Going Nowhere

In a Saturday, April 25, Truth Social post, President Trump explained: “I just canceled the trip of my representatives going to Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership.’ Nobody knows who is in charge, including them.”

Even though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has led Tehran’s negotiating team in the past, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been calling the shots. The IRGC has refused to agree to the US negotiating points when there was some evidence that, in an earlier Islamabad meeting, it had agreed to give up developing nuclear weapons and turn the 970-lb stockpile of 60% enriched uranium over to the US. Turning over the nuclear material is a hard line in the sand for the United States. Consequently, it’s understandable that President Trump is no longer willing to put up with futile talks with Iran.

President Trump made his position very clear when, according to Fox News:

“The president said in an exclusive interview with Fox News’ White House correspondent Aishah Hasnie that it’s not worth the U.S. delegation making the 18-hour flight to Pakistan when the US holds all the cards in the conflict with Iran. ‘I've told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, 'Nope, you're not making an 18-hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you're not going to be making any more 18-hour flights to sit around talking about nothing’, Trump said.”

The president has put the ball squarely in Iran’s court. To that end, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appears to be whistling past the graveyard as he finished up meetings in Pakistan with government officials and went on to Oman on April 25, as though this were just another diplomatic junket.

There has been little acknowledgment by Iranian officials that their country is in shambles. The Institute for the Study of War explained that “a Pakistani journalist, citing unspecified sources, reported on April 25 that Iran will not meet the US delegation and that Iran remains unwilling to engage directly and continues to insist that the United States end its blockade as a precondition for negotiations.”

In the meantime, the US Naval forces in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea have tightened the blockade on oil tankers and cargo ships transiting from and to Iranian ports. Economic sanctions and the blockade are the two most effective means of bringing Iran to its knees. During a Friday (April 24) Pentagon press conference, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth observed, “I'll say this, every ship, every ship that the US believes meets our criteria, either Iranian ships or to and from Iranian ports, has been turned around. As of this morning, 34 total.” All other cargo ships or oil tankers are allowed through.

 
Hegseth Clarifies What the Blockade Means

Hegseth told reporters: “No one sails from the Strait of Hormuz to anywhere in the world without the permission of the United States Navy. To the regime in Tehran, the blockade is tightening by the hour. We are in control, nothing in, nothing out.” During the same briefing, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine, recounted an encounter with a would-be blockade runner. One container ship, named Touska, chose to ignore the blockade. When the Touska tried to run the blockade on Sunday, April 19, a US Navy destroyer provided radio warnings and fired five warning shots. The crew of the Touska ignored the warnings. The US then warned the crew to abandon the engine room.

After allowing time for the Touska’s crew to comply, “the destroyer disabled the Touska's engine by firing nine inert rounds from the destroyer's Mark 45 five-inch guns, precisely into the engine room and engine space on board the Touska.” The targeted ship stopped dead in the water and the crew complied with all subsequent US instructions. US Marines seized and took over the ship. The US is deadly serious about the blockade, and at least one blockade runner knows that…now.

It’s not just the blockade that has the US Navy’s attention in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian small boats, “smaller Boston Whaler-sized boats” with weapons on them, are fair game. They will no longer be able to harass legitimate vessels transiting the strait or attempt to lay mines. Hegseth told reporters, “Our commanders have clear rules of engagement. If Iran is putting mines in the water, or otherwise threatening American commercial shipping or American forces, we will shoot to destroy, no hesitation, just like the drug boats in the Caribbean.”

As the Iranian port blockade noose is pulled tighter, Iran’s ability to function as a country grows increasingly precarious. Additionally, the US has the alternative of re-engaging militarily and systematically destroying bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure, which the US has refrained from doing so far. Invading Kharg Island and other Iranian shoreline facilities also remain options that have been considered. Iran needs to appreciate what a truly bad place it’s in and talk seriously about its future.

Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE