He knows it as well, which is why he wouldn't say no when Jack Tame kept questioning him about whether he would call her on November 8 if he had to. He will call her because he wants to be back in government and he knows his voters will forgive him if he breaks his promise to rule them out. His voters would rather have Opportunity in a government with National than no National-led government at all, right?
Now, having said that, the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll did show that Opportunity being in Parliament is not a foregone conclusion by any stretch. They were on 4.8%, which is shy of the 5% they need to get into Parliament.
And them crashing out like that is actually the best-case scenario for Luxon because, in that poll, the coalition government wins with a comfortable majority of 65 seats to 55 for the Labour-led bloc. That's largely because of the wasted vote that Opportunity takes with it. A 4.8% vote is enormous, gone from the left bloc.
My take is that for Opportunity to actually make it into Parliament on election day, they need to go into that final week with a solid 6% in the polls. That way, their voters will be confident they're not wasting their vote and they're not going to panic and shift to the Greens at the last moment.
For the record, I still think Luxon will be Prime Minister after election day. Opportunity will either crash out spectacularly, in which case the right will win because Opportunity has fallen short, or Opportunity will get in, Luxon will call them, and they'll work out a deal.
Because Wong is right: if he has to, he's calling them.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and radio broadcaster who hosts Newstalk ZB's weekday Drive-Time Show – where this article was sourced.
8 comments:
Mmp must go. How ridiculous and shameful that a new party could be Kingmaker in the first place.
The fact that we are being told to vote strategically to save our country is proof that mmp is a total failure. What a joke that a party with a " leader" who answered a seek advertisement could now hold the fate of an entire country in her hands!
If he calls her after the election, it'll likely be to commiserate with her over TOP's electoral drubbing, or to say, "thanks, but no thanks"
Prior to MMP, from 1902 to 1996 an average of 54% of votes were ‘wasted” on losing political parties - effectively disenfranchising those voters from having a say in the running of the country. Post MMP that figure has ‘improved to just under 50%.
So MMP has bought us a 4% lift in ‘enfranchised’ voters. But it’s also bought us 50+ List MP’s who’s loyalty isn’t to the people, its only to the party bigwigs who hold their fate in their hands.
Effectively that means 40% of parliament is beholden to no-one except their own career prospects - hardly the increased voter ‘enfranchisement’ that MMP was supposed to bring us.
Voting NZers have the uncomfortable feeling that - having cast their vote - their only role is to pay tax till the next election.
Has anyone told Mrs L about this?
Anon 10:07 excellent point! Under any repsentative democratic system voters who back the loosing side will waste their vote. That's just the way it works...
Point of correction Anon 10:07 am . Only votes that do not pass the 5% threshold are classed as "wasted" and are redistributed to other parties pro rata.
Aways there will be a huge amount of genuine votes that do not enter government however the remaining losing votes still enter into parliament opposition.
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