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Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Roy Morgan Poll: In September National-led Government increases lead over Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (52% vs. 41.5%)


The Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for September 2026 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) up 3% to 52%, increasing its clear lead over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Parliamentary Opposition, virtually unchanged at 41.5%, and 6.5% supporting Opportunity. This is the largest lead (10.5%) for the National-led Government for two years since September 2024.

Support for National was unchanged at 31%

Support for ACT was up 0.5% to 11%

Support for NZ First was up 2.5% to 10%.

Support for Labour was down 0.5% to 23.5%

Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 16%

Support for Te Pāti Māori increased 0.5% to 2%.

Support for Opportunity at 6.5%

A further 6.5% (down 3.5%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. Importantly, this is predominantly made up of support for Opportunity with less than 0.5% who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.

National-led Government set to win a narrow majority of 62 seats in 120 seat Parliament

Full poll results published HERE

8 comments:

Janine said...

The aim should be to get more ACT and NZF members of parliament by giving them the party vote. Luxons goal is to learn more of the Maori language(according to the leaders election debate). We need a change of direction. Honestly, not more of the same, surely?

Anonymous said...

Too damned close for comfort, particularly if National persist with their dumb "Two ticks blue" mantra. If they swallowed their pride, exhibited some mathematical/statistical intellect and above all decided to become a team player, they could influence their supporters to use MMP and counter the TPM overhang strategy with a coalition team strategy for Party votes. Maybe that is just too much to hope for given the weight of hubris National appear to be carrying.

Anonymous said...

I bet this poll does not get the same coverage as the other polls we had this week. Kevin

Basil Walker said...

Thank you Janine .
Why does National think their option is even remotely possible to win this close Coalition election when they are polling like a loser.
The public are urged to party Vote ACT or NZF this election because National will maybe retain their electorate seats , but LIST MP's from National is NOT going to happen this election.
If National wasn't acting so dumb and so dreadful , they would be treasonous.

Anonymous said...

Janine what does Luxon’s language skills have to do with voting?

Anonymous said...

National sleep walked their way into defeat in 2017 and there doing it again now !

Then they had just spent 2 years abusing Wintston Peters and didn't seem to hear his electioneering, vote for Winston, vote for a change.

National's doing much the same now. "Two ticks National " and they may well be doomed.

Forever.

And it's here comes the Ethno Socialist State of Aotearoa

Forever.and ever and ever.

No 3rd chances. Ever

Hugh Jorgan said...

No more polls please, sick of them. The only poll that matters is on election day.

Anonymous said...

If National want to win they need to start highlighting that Labour will dismantle the gains made in education.
Under Labour our kids are going to be thrown under the bus for union ideology.
Hipkins admitted it on the leaders debate. He also admitted that co governance is back in play.
Get the gloves off and start fighting or the lefties will steal your kids future.

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