The first year of the Brexit process has not been a good one. The best that can be said is that we now know that it is too late to properly execute a ‘hard Brexit’ and at the same time the process is too far advanced for ‘second thoughts’. A soft Brexit, made in Brussels rather than London, is the most likely outcome. At what is effectively ‘half-time’, there are many lessons to be drawn for Britain. Viewed from outside the UK, a couple stand out.
The first is that the world beyond Britain is changing. As Britain retreats from Europe, the EU has begun to emerge as a more coherent strategic bloc – to the extent that Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg can complain about becoming a ‘vassal state’. From free trade agreements with Japan and Canada, to leadership on global climate change negotiations, to its increasingly deliberate stance with respect to China, the EU is realising its potential as a big power. This, of course, is partly motivated by the withdrawal – at least for the moment – of the US from its global leadership role.
