GWPF Newsletter: Will Carbon Tax Bring Down Trudeau’s Government?

Majority Of Canadian Voters Oppose Trudeau’s Carbon Tax — May Decide Elections

In this newsletter:

1) Majority Of Canadian Voters Oppose Trudeau’s Carbon Tax — May Decide Elections
Toronto Sun, 12 June 2019

2) Only 32% Of Canadians Think Trudeau Deserves Re-Election As Tories Hold Lead: Ipsos Poll
The Canadian Press, 14 June 2019


3) Green Suicide: Report Warns Trudeau's Carbon Tax Will Go Up A Lot
Toronto Sun, 13 June 2019

4) Trudeau’s ‘Climate Emergency’ Meets His National Muddle Of Malfunctioning Carbon Taxes
Financial Post, 5 June 2019

5) Attention U.S. House Members: Canadian Politicians Who Endorsed A Carbon Tax Are Being Voted Out Of Office
Americans For Tax Reform, July 2018
 
6) Andrew Montford: The Cost Of This Net Zero Madness? Even A Trillion Is An Underestimate
The Conservative Woman, 14 June 2019 

7) And Finally: Leaked EU Draft Strategy Reveals Climate Change No Longer Top Priority
EurActiv, 11 June 2019

Full details:

1) Majority Of Canadian Voters Oppose Trudeau’s Carbon Tax — May Decide Elections
Toronto Sun, 12 June 2019

Many Canadian voters are motivated on the issue of the carbon tax but not necessarily in a way that benefits Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.



A new public opinion poll by Forum Research shows that Canadians are divided in support for the Liberal government’s carbon tax and that two thirds of them say it will affect how they vote this October. These results are hardly surprising given the mixed reactions to the controversial tax but what the numbers also reveal is how one side of the debate is much more passionate than the other.

The telephone poll of 1,633 Canadian voters found that 45% are opposed to the tax, 28% are in favour of it and 27% say they are neither for nor against it. This tells us that public opinion is more on the side of Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, who is against the tax alongside premiers, such as Ontario’s Doug Ford and Alberta’s Jason Kenney.

It’s not just the raw numbers though that work to Scheer’s favour and against Trudeau’s much coveted tax. Forum also looked at how motivated voters are on the issue and found those opposed feel much more strongly than those in favour.

A majority of respondents, 65%, say the carbon tax will in some way influence their vote in October, with 40% saying it is “very likely” to affect their vote and 25% saying it’s “somewhat likely.” Those opposed to the carbon tax, though, are much more likely to vote based on this issue than those in support of it. That’s where things get really difficult for Trudeau and the Liberals.

Among those who say they oppose the carbon tax, 84% told Forum that it’s going to play a role in informing their vote. In contrast, only 53% of those who support the tax feel similarly passionate.

The Liberals also appear to be trailing when it comes to getting out their base on the issue. While 80% of Conservative supporters feel motivated on the issue (presumably in opposition to it), only 48% of Liberal voters are excited to vote based on their support of the tax.

“The carbon tax looks like it’s motivating its opponents in far greater numbers than its proponents,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research. “Additionally, Conservative supporters are far more opposed than Liberals are in favour. If the Conservatives can consolidate the opposition around this issue, and make it the focal point of the campaign, the Liberals’ re-election prospects are severely diminished.”

Full story
 
2) Only 32% Of Canadians Think Trudeau Deserves Re-Election As Tories Hold Lead: Ipsos Poll
The Canadian Press, 14 June 2019

With four months left until the federal election, the Liberals are again trailing behind the Conservatives in decided voter support.

And they are running out of time to make up the difference, suggests a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News.

According to the new poll, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s approval rating is at its lowest point since he was elected in 2015.

Just 32 per cent of respondents said they believe the Trudeau government has done a good job and deserves re-election, compared to 68 per cent who think it’s time for another party to take power.



As well, the Conservatives are leading in public support in all provinces except for Quebec, with the Liberal lead in Ontario and British Columbia now vanished.

Full story
 
3) Report Warns Trudeau's Carbon Tax Will Go Up A Lot
Toronto Sun, 13 June 2019
Brian Lilley

Don’t say that you weren’t warned: For Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax to accomplish its goals, it will have to go up significantly.

The latest warning comes from the non-partisan Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).

According to the PBO, Canada will need to boost its carbon tax from $50 a tonne in 2022 to between $102 and $138 a tonne by 2030 if Canada is to meet its Paris Agreement targets on greenhouse gas emissions.

The difference between $102 and $138 a tonne is dependent on the state of the economy and the price of oil over the next 11 years.

However, the PBO’s main estimate is that the carbon tax will need to rise to $102 a tonne by 2030 to close a gap of 79 Mt of emissions in order to meet Canada’s Paris Agreement targets. If the economy grows and oil and gas production increases, emissions could be 55 Mt higher meaning a gap of 134 Mt.

“The additional carbon price needed to achieve the Paris target with a gap of 134 Mt would rise from $10 per tonne in 2023 to $88 per tonne in 2030,” the report reads.

Let’s be honest, talking in mega tonnes and a carbon price per tonne is gibberish to most of us. What does it mean in real terms?

After speaking with Dan McTeague, former Liberal MP and senior analyst with gasbuddy.com, I find out the numbers are staggering.

The increased carbon tax price would mean as much as an extra 26.3 cents per litre for gasoline, once you add in the HST the change would boost the price per litre by at least 29.7 cents per litre. For diesel, it would be at least 35 cents per litre.

“That’s your jet fuel, that’s your bus transportation, that’s your freight. If you want to cripple the economy, be my guest,” McTeague said.

Full post
 
4) Trudeau’s ‘Climate Emergency’ Meets His National Muddle Of Malfunctioning Carbon Taxes
Financial Post, 5 June 2019
Robert Lyman

The news last week that the Trudeau government has introduced into the House of Commons a motion to declare a “climate emergency” in Canada may draw even more attention to its policy governing carbon-dioxide pricing and taxation. To proponents, carbon dioxide pricing is economically efficient, low in cost, socially benign and administratively simple.

In Canada, however, the carbon-pricing regimes that have been implemented by the federal and provincial governments have none of these advantages...

Three provinces have already filed court challenges claiming that the carbon dioxide pricing framework is outside the federal government’s constitutional authority. None of these challenges has yet questioned the legality, in the name of the claimed “national interest,” of applying a regime that has such a diverse range of regional impacts. Unfortunately, acknowledging those differences and finding ways to resolve them has not yet gained the status of an “emergency.”

Robert Lyman is retired energy economist who spent 30 years as an adviser and senior manager in the federal public service. His paper, “Carbon Taxation — The Canadian Experience” was recently published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

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5) Attention U.S. House Members: Canadian Politicians Who Endorsed A Carbon Tax Are Being Voted Out Of Office
Americans For Tax Reform, July 2018
 
Attention U.S. House Members: Canadian politicians who endorsed a carbon tax are being voted out of office, and even liberal provinces are in revolt as tensions over Trudeau’s carbon tax mount



As Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tries to impose a federal carbon tax, voters are kicking carbon-tax-endorsing politicians out of office, provinces are rising up in opposition, and tensions are running high. The carbon tax is so toxic that it is shaping up to be the defining issue of the 2019 elections.

U.S. House members -- especially Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.) -- would be wise to consider the following:

On June 7, due to her support for a carbon tax Liberal Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne went down in the worst defeat of a governing party in modern Ontario history. Liberal Wynne was in favor of a carbon tax and decisively lost to the conservative Doug Ford, who ran on abolishing the carbon tax. Ford made an explicit, written promise to the voters that he would end the carbon tax if elected.

Ford’s opposition to the carbon tax was decisive, and on June 15 Ford followed through: "I made a promise to the people that we would take immediate action to scrap the cap-and-trade carbon tax and bring their gas prices down," said Ford. "Today, I want to confirm that as a first step to lowering taxes in Ontario, the carbon tax's days are numbered."
Ontario is Canada’s most populous province, and Ford’s repeal of the carbon tax sets up a confrontation with Trudeau.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe opposes the carbon tax. Moe said that the province will go to court to fight federal carbon tax. "You'll see others realize that this is a flawed policy. It doesn't reduce emissions, it costs people in the province money and it costs our industries competitiveness," Moe said.

In Alberta, Jason Kenney [has become] the new Premier, campaigning aggressively against a carbon tax in advance of the 2019 election. “The carbon tax is all economic pain, and no environmental gain,” he said.

Manitoba is suing the federal government over the carbon tax. "I have a simple message for Ottawa today -- back off or we'll see you in court,” said Premier Brian Pallister in April. 

The province of Prince Edward Island is “fighting for Islanders” against the Trudeau carbon tax.
United Conservatives won Alberta byelections. Laila Goodridge has been elected Member of the Legislative Assembly of Fort McMurray-Conklin with over 65.9% of the votes by fighting against a carbon tax. "Tonight, voters overwhelmingly rejected the NDP's carbon tax, their smear and tax hike agendas," said Goodridge.

Another victory for the anti-carbon-tax movement was the win of conservative Devin Dreeshen. He won the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake byelection. "They voted by huge numbers to send this failed NDP government a message that you’re living on borrowed time and next year we’re going to fire this NDP government and scrap their carbon tax to get Alberta’s economy back on track.”

Canadian farmers are using social media to bring the anti-carbon-tax message to Trudeau. "By 2022 the average crop farmer will owe $20,000 a year. My farm seeded 2,100 acres this year and we are not considered large by any means in our area. That means we would owe $30,000" said a young farmer.

Full post
 
6) Andrew Montford: The Cost Of This Net Zero Madness? Even A Trillion Is An Underestimate
The Conservative Woman, 14 June 2019

THE £1trillion figure is propaganda, not analysis; you can pluck any number you want.’ So said Adair Turner, the former head of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), according to the Telegraph on Wednesday.

Turner was lambasting Whitehall estimates of the cost of taking the country to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. It’s unclear whether there is any meaningful analysis behind the £1trillion (£1million million, or £1,000,000,000,000) figure, which was put together by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Turner may therefore be correct. But the CCC’s own figure (1 to 2 per cent of GDP in 2050) is just as dubious.

Despite having published a raft of papers to support its contention that net zero was a plausible goal, none of these, including the one on the ‘costs and benefits of net zero’, had anything like a breakdown of costs or of benefits. Lord Deben seems to have plucked the 1 to 2 per cent figure, fully formed, from the air, in just the same way Turner had slammed the Treasury for doing.

The question of the costs involved in the net zero project is impenetrable to say the least. The CCC is not advancing a plan for achieving this goal so much as making a sales pitch. So you will look in vain for a definitive picture of how it thinks energy should be provided in 2050, say, or what we might need to spend to get it.

There is an example of how the energy system might be constituted, though, and from this you can estimate that we might have to spend a quarter of a trillion pounds on wind turbines. However the CCC has made some astonishingly optimistic assumptions about how much electricity each one of these will provide, so the cost will almost certainly be much higher. Similar figures emerge elsewhere in the CCC’s papers; its own figure for decarbonising housing is close to half a trillion pounds. Refuelling equipment for electric or fuel-cell powered vehicles will be another 0.1 trillion.

I could go on, but you will have grasped my point by now. These sorts of numbers, coming out from just a small fraction of the actions the CCC is demanding, suggest that the Treasury’s £1trillion is not only plausible for the outlays required for reaching net zero emissions, it’s almost certainly a gross underestimate.

As for the alleged benefits, these are even harder to pin down. This is because the authors take the view that many of the technologies involved haven’t been invented yet. However, they assume that the costs involved will fall precipitously in future, so our trillion or more pounds of spending on whatever it is we decide to spend it on will actually save people money in the long run. Magic! But it also looks very much as if the CCC assumes that benefits received far in the future will have a value commensurate with one received today. If this is the case, then the report is – not to put too fine a point on it – a scam.

This is no way to run a whelk stall, let alone a large economy. Yet despite this, our political establishment is quite united on the idea that ‘net zero’ is the way forward.

Full post

7) And Finally: Leaked EU Draft Strategy Reveals Climate Change No Longer Top Priority
EurActiv, 11 June 2019

As things stand, climate change and green policies are only billed third in the draft plan, after migration and “Developing our economic base”

EU leaders want to focus on migration and protection of external borders, or the “integrity of our physical space”, over the next five years, according to a draft of the so-called strategic agenda obtained by EURACTIV. Economy and climate action rank second and third.

In the draft strategy for 2019-2024, meant to guide the work of the EU institutions, national leaders prioritise migration policy over other areas, while strengthening the economy, fighting climate change and taking Europe global also feature.

In the top-billed area of “Protecting citizens and freedoms”, the agenda insists that effective border controls are “an absolute prerequisite” for maintaining rule and order, and adds that other EU policies rely on it….

The strategic agenda is set to be tweaked further during Council meetings on 11, 13 and 17 June, ahead of a full leaders summit on 20 and 21 June.

Green washed

As things stand, climate change and green policies are only billed third in the draft plan, after migration and “Developing our economic base”. That is despite climate action featuring heavily in national elections this year in the likes of Denmark, Finland and Spain.

The agenda acknowledges that policies must match commitments made under the Paris Agreement and that Europe’s economy should cut its emissions enough to achieve ‘climate neutrality’.

But the strategy stops short of putting a date on when the EU should be collectively absorbing more emissions than it is creating, which continues to be a stumbling block in talks between member states.

Climate neutrality by 2050 has the backing of the Commission, the European Parliament and roughly 12 countries but scepticism still prevents the striking of an agreement.

Full story

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.