Chinese scientists find evidence for 500-year solar cycles, shaping 8,000 years of China's civilisation
In this newsletter:
1) The Solar-Climate Theory Casting New Light On The History Of Chinese Civilisation
South China Morning Post, 24 September 2019
2) Synchronous 500-Year Oscillations Of Monsoon Climate And Human Activity In Northeast Asia
Nature Communications, 11 September 2019
3) European Climate Declaration: There Is No Climate Emergency
Climate Intelligence Foundation, 23 September 2019
4) EIA Projects Nearly 50% Increase In World Energy Usage by 2050, Led By Growth In Asia
US Energy Information Administration, 24 September 2019
5) Endangered Species: Green Auto Workers
The Wall Street Journal, 24 September 2019
6) Uni Fights $1.2 Million Judgment Over Sacked Academic Peter Ridd
The Australian, 23 September 2019
7) And Finally: EU’s UN Climate Promise -- We’ll Spend More Millions On Our Private Jets
Politico, 23 September 2019
Full details:
1) The Solar-Climate Theory Casting New Light On The History Of Chinese Civilisation
South China Morning Post, 24 September 2019
Stephen Chen
Researchers say that when 500-year-long sun cycles brought warmth, communities flourished, but when the Earth cooled, ancient societies collapsed
The ~500-yr cycle of changing human activity is almost in-phase with (cycles 1-2 and 4-9) or lags by several decades (cycle 3) the ~500-yr cycle of warm-humid/cold-dry climatic oscillations. Source: Nature Communications 2019
Scientists say they have found evidence beneath a lake in northeastern China that ties climate change and 500-year sun cycles to ups and downs in the 8,000 years of Chinese civilisation.
According to the study by a team at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics in Beijing published in the science journal Nature Communications this month, whenever the climate warmed, Chinese civilisation prospered and when it cooled, it declined.
While historians have used various social and economic factors to explain changes over the millennia, Dr Xu Deke, lead author of the paper, and his colleagues said that while people played their part, their study indicated that cycles in solar activity influenced human activity.
“We just point out there is a natural constraint on human efforts,” Xu said.
Previous research linking Chinese history to climate relied on written records, but ancient texts contained only subjective descriptions of weather and social development. The records also go back only so far – writing in China was not invented until 3,600 years ago.
For this latest study, the team and its leader, Chinese Academy of Sciences professor Lu Houyuan, took plant and lake bed sediment samples to track climate change over the centuries and compared them with written records.
They visited Lake Xiaolongwan in the Changbai Mountains in Jilin province and studied the spread of plant life such as oak trees to map the transitions between warm and cold climate phases in northern China.
By comparing the records and their research, the scientists found that the warmer the climate, the more prosperous the civilisation in terms of grain cultivation, animal domestication and human settlement.
Over the decades, researchers have established more than 4,000 carbon dating databases for archaeological finds in northern China.
From these, the team obtained a benchmark for the intensity of human activity in different periods. Their study also found that 500-year cycles often ended with rapid climate cooling.
Whenever that happened, societies started to collapse and neither culture nor political systems could sustain them. This, Xu said, was a lesson for modern China.
“The most effective countermeasure is science and technology,” he said. “We are in a much more capable position than our ancestors with the help of technology and machines in face of global cooling, but preparation must start now.”
Citing this and earlier studies, Xu said that over the next few decades the Earth would enter 25 years of cooling, although greenhouse gases could slow the temperature drop.
Cooling would increase the size of polar ice caps and lower sea levels. Areas such as southern China could benefit as land would be reclaimed from the sea.
But overall, a cooling climate would continue to have a more negative effect on civilisation than warming, Xu said.
Dr Liu Yonggang, a Peking University scientist who studies ancient climate, said the researchers had provided important new information and perspectives.
Human societies have gone through temperature cycles such as the Medieval Warm Period (900- 1300) and Little Ice Age (1300-1870) Liu said, but most of that data came from Europe, not China.
The study left one big question. “Why do the sun’s activities vary every 500 years? Nobody can explain,” he said.
“We need to know more about the inner working mechanism of the sun, otherwise the future remains unpredictable.”
2) Synchronous 500-Year Oscillations Of Monsoon Climate And Human Activity In Northeast Asia
Nature Communications, 11 September 2019
According to the study by a team at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics in Beijing published in the science journal Nature Communications this month, whenever the climate warmed, Chinese civilisation prospered and when it cooled, it declined.
While historians have used various social and economic factors to explain changes over the millennia, Dr Xu Deke, lead author of the paper, and his colleagues said that while people played their part, their study indicated that cycles in solar activity influenced human activity.
“We just point out there is a natural constraint on human efforts,” Xu said.
Previous research linking Chinese history to climate relied on written records, but ancient texts contained only subjective descriptions of weather and social development. The records also go back only so far – writing in China was not invented until 3,600 years ago.
For this latest study, the team and its leader, Chinese Academy of Sciences professor Lu Houyuan, took plant and lake bed sediment samples to track climate change over the centuries and compared them with written records.
They visited Lake Xiaolongwan in the Changbai Mountains in Jilin province and studied the spread of plant life such as oak trees to map the transitions between warm and cold climate phases in northern China.
By comparing the records and their research, the scientists found that the warmer the climate, the more prosperous the civilisation in terms of grain cultivation, animal domestication and human settlement.
Over the decades, researchers have established more than 4,000 carbon dating databases for archaeological finds in northern China.
From these, the team obtained a benchmark for the intensity of human activity in different periods. Their study also found that 500-year cycles often ended with rapid climate cooling.
Whenever that happened, societies started to collapse and neither culture nor political systems could sustain them. This, Xu said, was a lesson for modern China.
“The most effective countermeasure is science and technology,” he said. “We are in a much more capable position than our ancestors with the help of technology and machines in face of global cooling, but preparation must start now.”
Citing this and earlier studies, Xu said that over the next few decades the Earth would enter 25 years of cooling, although greenhouse gases could slow the temperature drop.
Cooling would increase the size of polar ice caps and lower sea levels. Areas such as southern China could benefit as land would be reclaimed from the sea.
But overall, a cooling climate would continue to have a more negative effect on civilisation than warming, Xu said.
Dr Liu Yonggang, a Peking University scientist who studies ancient climate, said the researchers had provided important new information and perspectives.
Human societies have gone through temperature cycles such as the Medieval Warm Period (900- 1300) and Little Ice Age (1300-1870) Liu said, but most of that data came from Europe, not China.
The study left one big question. “Why do the sun’s activities vary every 500 years? Nobody can explain,” he said.
“We need to know more about the inner working mechanism of the sun, otherwise the future remains unpredictable.”
2) Synchronous 500-Year Oscillations Of Monsoon Climate And Human Activity In Northeast Asia
Nature Communications, 11 September 2019
Abstract
Prehistoric human activities were likely influenced by cyclic monsoon climate changes in East Asia. Here we report a decadal-resolution Holocene pollen record from an annually-laminated Maar Lake in Northeast China, a proxy of monsoon climate, together with a compilation of 627 radiocarbon dates from archeological sites in Northeast China which is a proxy of human activity. The results reveal synchronous ~500-year quasi-periodic changes over the last 8000 years. The warm-humid/cold-dry phases of monsoon cycles correspond closely to the intensification/weakening of human activity and the flourishing/decline of prehistoric cultures. Six prosperous phases of prehistoric cultures, with one exception, correspond approximately to warm-humid phases caused by a strengthened monsoon. This ~500-year cyclicity in the monsoon and thus environmental change triggered the development of prehistoric cultures in Northeast China. The cyclicity is apparently linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, against the background of long-term Holocene climatic evolution. These findings reveal a pronounced relationship between prehistoric human activity and cyclical climate change.
Full paper
3) European Climate Declaration: There Is No Climate Emergency
Climate Intelligence Foundation, 23 September 2019
As the latest U.N. climate summit begins in New York, a new, high-level global network of 500 prominent climate scientists and professionals has submitted a declaration that there is no “climate emergency”.
The group has sent a European Climate Declaration with a registered letter to António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.
Professor Guus Berkhout of The Netherlands, who organized the Declaration, said:
“So popular is the Declaration with scientists and researchers worldwide that signatories are flooding in not only from within Europe but also from other countries such as the United States and Canada, Australia and New Zealand.”
The group’s letter warns the U.N. that “the general-circulation models of climate on which international policy is at present founded are unfit for their purpose”.
The Declaration adds that the models, which have predicted far more warming than they should, “are not remotely plausible as policy tools”, in that “they … exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2” and “ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial”.
The “climate emergency” that never was: Global warming predicted by climate models (purple and red cursors) is three times warming expected on the basis of officially-estimated manmade influences on climate (orange cursor) and four times observed warming (green cursor).
The letter invites the Secretary-General to work with the global network to organize a constructive, high-level meeting between world-class scientists on both sides of the climate debate in early 2020
More information here
4) EIA Projects Nearly 50% Increase In World Energy Usage by 2050, Led By Growth In Asia
US Energy Information Administration, 24 September 2019
The letter invites the Secretary-General to work with the global network to organize a constructive, high-level meeting between world-class scientists on both sides of the climate debate in early 2020
More information here
4) EIA Projects Nearly 50% Increase In World Energy Usage by 2050, Led By Growth In Asia
US Energy Information Administration, 24 September 2019
In the International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019) Reference case, released at 9:00 a.m. today, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050. Most of this growth comes from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and this growth is focused in regions where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia.
EIA’s IEO2019 assesses long-term world energy markets for 16 regions of the world, divided according to OECD and non-OECD membership. Projections for the United States in IEO2019 are consistent with those released in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019.
EIA’s IEO2019 assesses long-term world energy markets for 16 regions of the world, divided according to OECD and non-OECD membership. Projections for the United States in IEO2019 are consistent with those released in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019.
The industrial sector, which includes refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, accounts for the largest share of energy consumption of any end-use sector—more than half of end-use energy consumption throughout the projection period. World industrial sector energy use increases by more than 30% between 2018 and 2050 as consumption of goods increases. By 2050, global industrial energy consumption reaches about 315 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).
Transportation energy consumption increases by nearly 40% between 2018 and 2050. This increase is largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption increases nearly 80% between 2018 and 2050. Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement grows in these countries much more rapidly than in many OECD countries.
Energy consumed in the buildings sector, which includes residential and commercial structures, increases by 65% between 2018 and 2050, from 91 quadrillion to 139 quadrillion Btu. Rising income, urbanization, and increased access to electricity lead to rising demand for energy.
The growth in end-use consumption results in electricity generation increasing 79% between 2018 and 2050. Electricity use grows in the residential sector as rising population and standards of living in non-OECD countries increase the demand for appliances and personal equipment. Electricity use also increases in the transportation sector as plug-in electric vehicles enter the fleet and electricity use for rail expands.
Transportation energy consumption increases by nearly 40% between 2018 and 2050. This increase is largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption increases nearly 80% between 2018 and 2050. Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement grows in these countries much more rapidly than in many OECD countries.
Energy consumed in the buildings sector, which includes residential and commercial structures, increases by 65% between 2018 and 2050, from 91 quadrillion to 139 quadrillion Btu. Rising income, urbanization, and increased access to electricity lead to rising demand for energy.
The growth in end-use consumption results in electricity generation increasing 79% between 2018 and 2050. Electricity use grows in the residential sector as rising population and standards of living in non-OECD countries increase the demand for appliances and personal equipment. Electricity use also increases in the transportation sector as plug-in electric vehicles enter the fleet and electricity use for rail expands.
With the rapid growth of electricity generation, renewables—including solar, wind, and hydroelectric power—are the fastest-growing energy source between 2018 and 2050, surpassing petroleum and other liquids to become the most used energy source in the Reference case. Worldwide renewable energy consumption increases by 3.1% per year between 2018 and 2050, compared with 0.6% annual growth in petroleum and other liquids, 0.4% growth in coal, and 1.1% annual growth in natural gas consumption.
Global natural gas consumption increases more than 40% between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches nearly 200 quadrillion Btu by 2050. In addition to the natural gas used in electricity generation, natural gas consumption increases in the industrial sector. Chemical and primary metals manufacturing, as well as oil and natural gas extraction, account for most of the growing industrial demand.
Full post
5) Endangered Species: Green Auto Workers
The Wall Street Journal, 24 September 2019
The striking union figures out that electric cars will cost jobs.
Democratic presidential candidates have promised that they know how to create millions of green jobs to replace the ones they plan to kill in fossil-fuels production, but it seems that not even their friends at the United Auto Workers believe them. This is one reason that auto workers at GM are striking.
Auto makers around the world are pumping billions of dollars into electric-car production to comply with government mandates. Some CEOs including GM’s Mary Barra believe electric cars will become more popular as batteries improve and decline in cost. But EVs make up only 2% of U.S. auto sales despite state and federal subsidies that can exceed $10,000 per car.
The economic risks are clear even to the UAW, which published a paper this spring warning that electric cars could cause thousands of job losses because they require fewer parts and less labor. An electric powertrain for a Chevy Bolt has 80% fewer moving parts compared to an internal combustion engine, but it is about three times as expensive.
Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess has said that “building an electric car involves some 30% less effort than one powered by an [internal combustion engine]. That means we will need to make job cuts.” GM will have to do likewise to compete. According to the paper, Ford has told investors “the product simplification that comes from EVs” can lead to “a 30% reduction in labor hours per unit compared to ICE production.”
Full story
6) Uni Fights $1.2 Million Judgment Over Sacked Academic Peter Ridd
The Australian, 23 September 2019
James Cook University is appealing a decision ordering it pay sacked academic Peter Ridd $1.2 million, arguing a judge was wrong to find the controversial professor was unlawfully dismissed for exercising his right to intellectual freedom.
Sacked professor Peter Ridd.
Federal Court documents reveal JCU has briefed one of Australia’s top barristers, Bret Walker SC, to argue it was legal for the north Queensland university to sack Dr Ridd last year after he publicly criticised its climate change science.
Physics professor Dr Ridd will on Monday launch an online bid for crowd-funding to help pay his legal costs, asking for an extra $1.5m, after supporters already tipped in $260,000 to help fund his unfair dismissal claim. Dr Ridd has spent $200,000 of his own money.
“It’s diabolically expensive because we expect it to go all the way to the High Court,” he said.
“In the end, this is a battle for academic freedom. It’s about not allowing universities to stifle free speech.
Dr Ridd was sacked last year after being censured three times for publicly criticising his colleagues and the university. He claimed the science regarding the effects of coral bleaching and global warning on the Great Barrier Reef was not subject to adequate quality assurance.
In April, Federal Circuit Court judge Sal Vasta ruled JCU breached the Fair Work Act by unlawfully dismissing Dr Ridd in a breach of the university’s enterprise agreement.
Earlier this month, Judge Vasta ordered JCU pay Mr Ridd about $1.2m as compensation for past and future economic loss, general compensation, and other penalties.
“In this case, Professor Ridd has endured over three years of unfair treatment by JCU — an academic institution that failed to respect the rights to intellectual freedom that Professor Ridd had as per clause 14 of the enterprise agreement,” Judge Vasta said.
The university has always insisted Dr Ridd was not sacked because of his scientific views, and has said he was dismissed for denigrating the university and its employees, and breaching confidentiality.
JCU’s notice of appeal confirms the university is appealing both Judge Vasta’s April decision that Dr Ridd was unfairly dismissed, and also his $1.2m penalty judgment.
A spokesman for JCU confirmed the university had lodged the appeal.
Please support Peter Ridd’s Legal Action Fund
Full story ($)
7) And Finally: EU’s UN Climate Promise -- We’ll Spend More Millions On Our Private Jets
Politico, 23 September 2019
The European Union is planning to spend millions of euros more on private jet flights for its top officials — just as it is proclaiming its green credentials and pledging to step up the fight against climate change.
The bloc has raised the amount that can be spent under a five-year contract for “air taxi” flights by more than €3.5 million, according to a document published this month in the EU's tenders database.
The new maximum amount of €10.71 million for the contract, which runs from 2016 to 2021, represents a 50 percent increase on the original value of €7.14 million.
Full story
Global natural gas consumption increases more than 40% between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches nearly 200 quadrillion Btu by 2050. In addition to the natural gas used in electricity generation, natural gas consumption increases in the industrial sector. Chemical and primary metals manufacturing, as well as oil and natural gas extraction, account for most of the growing industrial demand.
Full post
5) Endangered Species: Green Auto Workers
The Wall Street Journal, 24 September 2019
The striking union figures out that electric cars will cost jobs.
Democratic presidential candidates have promised that they know how to create millions of green jobs to replace the ones they plan to kill in fossil-fuels production, but it seems that not even their friends at the United Auto Workers believe them. This is one reason that auto workers at GM are striking.
Auto makers around the world are pumping billions of dollars into electric-car production to comply with government mandates. Some CEOs including GM’s Mary Barra believe electric cars will become more popular as batteries improve and decline in cost. But EVs make up only 2% of U.S. auto sales despite state and federal subsidies that can exceed $10,000 per car.
The economic risks are clear even to the UAW, which published a paper this spring warning that electric cars could cause thousands of job losses because they require fewer parts and less labor. An electric powertrain for a Chevy Bolt has 80% fewer moving parts compared to an internal combustion engine, but it is about three times as expensive.
Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess has said that “building an electric car involves some 30% less effort than one powered by an [internal combustion engine]. That means we will need to make job cuts.” GM will have to do likewise to compete. According to the paper, Ford has told investors “the product simplification that comes from EVs” can lead to “a 30% reduction in labor hours per unit compared to ICE production.”
Full story
6) Uni Fights $1.2 Million Judgment Over Sacked Academic Peter Ridd
The Australian, 23 September 2019
James Cook University is appealing a decision ordering it pay sacked academic Peter Ridd $1.2 million, arguing a judge was wrong to find the controversial professor was unlawfully dismissed for exercising his right to intellectual freedom.
Sacked professor Peter Ridd.
Federal Court documents reveal JCU has briefed one of Australia’s top barristers, Bret Walker SC, to argue it was legal for the north Queensland university to sack Dr Ridd last year after he publicly criticised its climate change science.
Physics professor Dr Ridd will on Monday launch an online bid for crowd-funding to help pay his legal costs, asking for an extra $1.5m, after supporters already tipped in $260,000 to help fund his unfair dismissal claim. Dr Ridd has spent $200,000 of his own money.
“It’s diabolically expensive because we expect it to go all the way to the High Court,” he said.
“In the end, this is a battle for academic freedom. It’s about not allowing universities to stifle free speech.
Dr Ridd was sacked last year after being censured three times for publicly criticising his colleagues and the university. He claimed the science regarding the effects of coral bleaching and global warning on the Great Barrier Reef was not subject to adequate quality assurance.
In April, Federal Circuit Court judge Sal Vasta ruled JCU breached the Fair Work Act by unlawfully dismissing Dr Ridd in a breach of the university’s enterprise agreement.
Earlier this month, Judge Vasta ordered JCU pay Mr Ridd about $1.2m as compensation for past and future economic loss, general compensation, and other penalties.
“In this case, Professor Ridd has endured over three years of unfair treatment by JCU — an academic institution that failed to respect the rights to intellectual freedom that Professor Ridd had as per clause 14 of the enterprise agreement,” Judge Vasta said.
The university has always insisted Dr Ridd was not sacked because of his scientific views, and has said he was dismissed for denigrating the university and its employees, and breaching confidentiality.
JCU’s notice of appeal confirms the university is appealing both Judge Vasta’s April decision that Dr Ridd was unfairly dismissed, and also his $1.2m penalty judgment.
A spokesman for JCU confirmed the university had lodged the appeal.
Please support Peter Ridd’s Legal Action Fund
Full story ($)
7) And Finally: EU’s UN Climate Promise -- We’ll Spend More Millions On Our Private Jets
Politico, 23 September 2019
The European Union is planning to spend millions of euros more on private jet flights for its top officials — just as it is proclaiming its green credentials and pledging to step up the fight against climate change.
The bloc has raised the amount that can be spent under a five-year contract for “air taxi” flights by more than €3.5 million, according to a document published this month in the EU's tenders database.
The new maximum amount of €10.71 million for the contract, which runs from 2016 to 2021, represents a 50 percent increase on the original value of €7.14 million.
Full story
The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.
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