GWPF Newsletter: The New Coal Boom

China Opens 17 New Coal Mines & Increases Coal Imports

In this newsletter:

1) New Coal Boom: China Opens 17 New Coal Mines
The Times, 22 October 2019 
 
2) China's 2019 Coal Imports Set To Rise More Than 10%
Reuters, 22 October 2019

 
3) Told You So: China’s Climate U-Turn
Global Warming Policy Foundation, December 2018

4) Global Coal Trade To Grow Through 2050, Driven By Asia And Industrial Coal Use: EIA
S&P Global, 24 September 2019
 
5) The Greta Effect: Global CO2 Emissions Increased By 1.9% In 2018: EU Report
Power Technology 22, October 2019 
 
6) The World’s Biggest Climate Hypocrite: Britain Now G7's Biggest Net Importer Of CO2 Emissions Per Capita
The Guardian, 21 October 2019  
 
7) What Young European Really Think About ‘Climate Crisis’: Millennials Want Their Own Car, Preferably A Petrol Car 
Clean Energy Wire, 23 October 2019 
 
8) EU Fails To Set Tougher Climate Targets Before December U.N. Conference
Reuters, 18 October
 
9) And Finally: Seattle Public Schools Will Start Teaching That Math Is Oppressive
Robby Soave, Reason Online, 22 October 2019

Full details:

1) New Coal Boom: China Opens 17 New Coal Mines
The Times, 22 October 2019 

China is expanding its coal power infrastructure despite pledges to curb carbon emissions.

China’s coal basins and coalbed methane resources. Source: Caterpillar Inc.

Analysis reveals that the amount allocated to large infrastructure projects by Beijing has doubled this year, with airports and high-speed rail lines among 21 schemes allocated a total of £83.9 billion.

Included in the new allocations is funding for 17 new coal mines across China, despite Beijing’s pledges to reduce reliance on the power source.

Seven mines were approved last year and, between 2017 and 2018, China added 194 million tonnes of coal mining capacity with the total number of mines reaching more than 3,000.

China, the world’s biggest coal consumer, has vowed to cap carbon emissions by 2030, although it has stopped short of the “net zero” emissions target by 2050 pledged by the European Union.

The move to increase coal production comes as China is expected to announce its five-year energy strategy.

The country is in the sixth year of its “war on pollution” to reverse damage done by decades of industrial growth that has left many cities blanketed in smog.

In a speech to China’s National Energy Commission, Li Keqiang, the premier, suggested Beijing was once again turning towards coal, despite government scientists conceding it was the “most dirty energy”.

“Given our country’s bounty of coal resources . . . [we should] promote the safe, green extraction of coal and development of clean and efficient coal,” Mr Li said, according to reports.

Full story (£) 

2) China's 2019 Coal Imports Set To Rise More Than 10%
Reuters, 22 October 2019

BEIJING/MELBOURNE (Reuters) - China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, countering earlier expectations that shipments would be capped by Beijing at the same level as 2018.

China’s coal imports have already surged 9.5% in the first nine months of 2019 to 250.57 million tonnes, customs data shows, and at least 18.84 million tonnes of seaborne coal are due to arrive this month, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv.

With China typically bringing in about 7 million tonnes more a month on trucks and trains from Mongolia and Russia, total volumes are likely to reach 276 million tonnes well before the end of the year.

Last year’s total was 281.23 million tonnes.

Full story

3) Told You So: China’s Climate U-Turn
Global Warming Policy Foundation, December 2018

While leaders of western countries fret about their greenhouse gas emissions in Katowice, China is forging ahead with new projects and investments in coal and gas.

According to a new paper from the Global Warming Foundation (GWPF), the Communist Party’s survival depends on delivering economic growth and cleaner air.

As the report’s author Patricia Adams explains:

“The Chinese have spent a lot of money on renewables without results on anything like the scale required. So despite their continuing outward support for the green agenda, China is actually going all out for fossil fuels. The Communist Party’s grip on power depends on it.”

As a result, analysts expect China’s coal production to continue to grow, with increases of 10 percent likely in the next two years. Such changes dwarf any reductions that are likely in western countries.

As Adams puts it:

“Just a few years ago, China was lauded as a climate saviour. That’s all in the past now.”

In the foreword to the new paper, former US Ambassador and US special envoy to the UNFCCC Dr Harlan Watson said:

“Many in the environmental community look to China to assume the role of global climate leader. But Patricia Adams questions China’s interest in assuming this role as the need for continued economic growth means securing new energy supplies will take priority over climate change concerns.”

Full GWPF paper The Road from Paris: China’s Climate U-Turn (pdf)

 



4) Global Coal Trade To Grow Through 2050, Driven By Asia And Industrial Coal Use: EIA
S&P Global, 24 September 2019

The global coal trade is projected to continue growing through 2050, largely driven by Asia, as industrial coal use increase and the power generation market in Asia grows, the Energy Information Administration said in its International Energy Outlook 2019 released Tuesday.

"In most regions, coal production and consumption are projected to remain near current levels with long-term growth expected in India and non-OECD [Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development] Asia," the report said.

Global coal production is expected to hold steady at 8 billion st through 2040, while consumption will be over 9 billion st, driven by India and other non-OECD Asian countries.

By 2050, the global coal trade is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.4% per year, to 2.2 billion st.

Until the 2030s, the report said, coal usage is projected to decline as regions replace coal with gas and renewables in power generation due to cost and government policy. However, the report said that "in the 2040s, coal use increases as a result of rising industrial usage and rising use in electric power generation in non-OECD Asia excluding China."

While coal-fired generation will stay stable through to 2050, its share will decline from 35% in 2018 to 22% in 2050 as total generation increases.

INDIA COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE

India is projected to increase its annual coal production by 2.7% per year, to 2 billion st in 2050 from 850 million st in 2018, in order to meet growing domestic demand. Consumption will grow by an average 3.1% per year, to 2.9 billion st in 2050 from 1.1 billion st in 2018.

Additionally, India is expected to be the world's largest importer by 2050, with imports growing on average 4.1% per year.

"Sustained industrial growth and significant efforts to further electrify the country's rural areas are expected to continue to drive India's coal consumption growth," the report said.

Largely, India will lead industrial coal use in non-OECD Asia after the mid-2020s due to "growth in coal-intensive industries and relatively low coal prices," it added.

Full story

5) The Greta Effect: Global CO2 Emissions Increased By 1.9% In 2018: EU Report
Power Technology 22, October 2019 

Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and processes increased by 1.9% in 2018 compared with 2017, according to a report from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC).

The Fossil CO2 & GHG emissions for all world countries report presents the latest updates from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) tool developed by the JRC as part of efforts to support climate negotiations and policy impact evaluation.

The emission data provided by EDGAR comprises CO₂ emissions from 1970 to 2018, as well as non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions quantified up to 2015.

According to the report, global greenhouse gas emissions have grown steadily since the beginning of the 21^st century, with CO₂ emissions from the power industry increasing by 82% since 1990.

The largest increases in emissions between 2017 and 2017 were found in India, which saw increases of 7.2%, followed by Russia (3.5%), the US (2.9%) and China (1.5%).

Full story

6) The World’s Biggest Climate Hypocrite: Britain Now G7's Biggest Net Importer Of CO2 Emissions Per Capita
The Guardian, 21 October 2019  

Britain has contributed to the global climate emergency (sic) by outsourcing its carbon emissions to developing nations, according to official figures, despite managing to weaken the domestic link between fossil fuels and economic growth.

The Office for National Statistics said the UK had become the biggest net importer of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the G7 group of wealthy nations – outstripping the US and Japan – as a result of buying goods manufactured abroad.

The ONS warned that Britain had increased its net imports of CO2 emissions per capita from 1.7 tonnes in 1992 to 5.1 tonnes in 2007, offsetting domestic progress on shifting the UK economy away from fossil fuels.

According to the ONS study, China was the biggest single source of Britain’s imported emissions, as the UK ramped up purchases of goods such as mobile phones made in the Asian country, where labour costs are lower and pollution regulations less stringent. The second biggest contributor to imported emissions was the EU, followed by the US.

Full story

7) What Young European Really Think About ‘Climate Crisis’: Millennials Want Their Own Car, Preferably A Petrol Car 
Clean Energy Wire, 23 October 2019 

German millennials' attitudes towards cars are less green than generally assumed, according to a survey by business advisory Duff & Phelps.



The use of cars is more prevalent among millennials in Germany than in the whole of the EU, with 81 percent of Germans born since 1980 currently owning or leasing a car, compared to an EU average of 79 percent. Young Germans also remain particularly fond of climate-damaging conventional cars: 61 percent said they would prefer to buy cars with combustion engines, while 32 percent preferred electric or hybrid vehicles.

At the EU level, 53 percent said they prefer conventional cars, while 39 percent favoured more climate-friendly alternatives.

"The high acquisition cost of electric vehicles is the likely reason for this sentiment," Duff & Phelps said.

"The tendency of millennials to be city-dwelling and to use public transportation seems to not dampen their interest in car ownership," the advisory added. General environmental concerns have no negative impact on this sentiment either, according to the study. Duff & Phelps surveyed 2,150 millennials between the ages of 23 and 38 from across the world on car-buying preferences.

Full post 

See also America’s ‘Green’ Generation On Track To Drive A Boom In Car-Buying, Housing & Energy Use

8) EU Fails To Set Tougher Climate Targets Before December U.N. Conference
Reuters, 18 October

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union government leaders declined on Friday to set tougher targets for fighting climate change, dashing hopes they would inject momentum into a United Nations climate conference in Chile in December.

At a two-day EU summit in Brussels, which was largely dominated by Brexit, discussion on climate was relegated to the last agenda item and took less than 15 minutes.

“The existential threat posed by climate change requires enhanced ambition and increased climate action by the EU and at global level,” read the final statement by the leaders.

The bloc aimed to “finalize its guidance on the EU’s long-term strategy on climate change at its December meeting.”

That means the EU will not bring more ambitious climate change-fighting objectives to the U.N. gathering in Santiago on Dec. 2-13, part of a process to check signatories’ progress toward implementing the 2015 Paris accords.

Full story 

9) And Finally: Seattle Public Schools Will Start Teaching That Math Is Oppressive
Robby Soave, Reason Online, 22 October 2019

A new ethnic studies curriculum will teach students that "ancient mathematical knowledge has been appropriated by Western culture."

Math is a deeply frustrating subject for many elementary and high school students. But Seattle public schools are gearing up to accuse math of a litany of more serious crimes: imperialism, dehumanization, and oppression of marginalized persons.

The district has proposed a new social justice-infused curriculum that would focus on "power and oppression" and "history of resistance and liberation" within the field of mathematics. The curriculum isn't mandatory, but provides a resource for teachers who want to introduce ethnic studies into the classroom vis a vis math. According to Education Week:

Seattle's four-page framework is still in the proposal stage. If adopted, its ideas will be included in existing math classes as part of the district's broader effort to infuse ethnic studies into all subjects across the K-12 spectrum. Tracy Castro-Gill, Seattle's ethnic studies director, said her team hopes to have frameworks completed in all subjects by June for board approval.

If the frameworks are approved, teachers would be expected to incorporate those ideas and questions into the math they teach beginning next fall, Castro-Gill said. No districtwide—or mandated—math/ethnic studies curriculum is planned, but groups of teachers are working with representatives of local community organizations to write instructional units for teachers to use if they wish, she said.

"Seattle is definitely on the forefront with this," said Robert Q. Berry III, the president of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. "What they're doing follows the line of work we hope we can move forward as we think about the history of math and who contributes to that, and also about deepening students' connection with identity and agency."

Full post

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.