GWPF Newsletter: Scientists Divided Over Impact Of Solar Minimum On Global Temperatures

UK Car Industry Slams Ban On Petrol, Diesel And Hybrids As ‘Unworkable’

In this newsletter:

1) Scientists Divided Over Impact Of Solar Minimum On Global Temperatures
The Sun, 2 February 2020
 
2) EU Lawmakers Concerned About Economic Cost Of Climate Targets
Bloomberg, 4 February 2020

 
3) UK Car Industry Slams Ban On Petrol, Diesel And Hybrids As ‘Unworkable’
Financial Times, 4 February 2020
 
4) UK Govt To Scrap Subsidies For Electric Cars
The Times, 4 February 2020
 
5) UK Government Has No Idea What Ban On Petrol & Diesel Cars Will Cost Taxpayers
Gaia Fawkes, 4 February 2020
 
6) UK Businesses Worried Boris May Kill Heathrow Airport Expansion 
City A.M. 2 February 2020
 
7) Not Listening To Boris: Japan Races to Build 22 New Coal-Burning Power Plants, Despite the Climate Risks
Hiroko Tabuchi, The New York Times, 3 February 2020
 
8) Britain’s Net Zero = Carbon Emissions by India’s Steel Sector to Triple by 2050
Bloomberg, 4 February 2020
 
9) And Finally: Climate Doomsayers Keep Putting Sell-By Dates On Their Credibility
Toby Young, The Spectator, 1 February 2020

Full details:

1) Scientists Divided Over Impact Of Solar Minimum On Global Temperatures
The Sun, 2 February 2020

Earth could face frosty weather and biting snow storms over the next 30 years as an ominous “solar minimum” grips the planet, a scientist has warned. Other experts believe that a Grand Solar Minimum will have little effect on our climate.

The cold snaps – caused by the Sun entering a natural “hibernation” – threaten to trigger food shortages as temperatures slump across the planet, experts say.

Earth is bracing for a solar minimum: a quiet period in which the Sun fires less energy – or, heat – at our planet than usual.

According to Nasa, the Sun will reach its lowest activity in over 200 years in 2020.

This could cause average temperatures to drop as much as 1C in a cold spell lasting 12 months, according to Northumbria University expert Valentina Zharkova.

That might not sound like much, but a whole degree is very significant for global average temperatures.


The Sun constantly blasts Earth with radiation, but is entering a ‘quiet’ phase in 2020 Credit: Getty – 

“The Sun is approaching a hibernation period,” Professor Zharkova, who has published multiple scientific papers on solar minimums, told The Sun.

“Less sunspots will be formed on the solar surface and thus less energy and radiation will be emitted towards the planets and the Earth.”

Solar minimums are part of the Sun’s natural life cycle and occur once every 11 years. However, 2020’s minimum promises to be an especially chilly one.

That’s because it marks the start of a rare event known as a Grand Solar Minimum, in which energy emitted from the Sun drops even more than usual.

These only occur once every 400 years or so. Most of the effects will be harmless.

However, Professor Zharkova warned icy spells and wet summers could persist until solar activity picks up again in 2053.

She listed recent unusual chills in Canada and Iceland as evidence of the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) already taking hold.

“The reduction in temperature will results in cold weathers on Earth, wet and cold summers, cold and wet winters,” she told The Sun.

“We will possibly get big frosts as is happening now in Canada where they see [temperatures] of -50C.

“But this is only the start of GSM, there is more to come in the next 33 years.”

The last GSM to strike Earth was the Maunder Minimum, which lasted from 1645 to 1715.

During this period, the brightness of the Sun dropped and temperatures plummeted across the globe, according to Nasa.

The brutal cold decades saw famous waterways like the Thames and Amsterdam’s canals freeze regularly – events that are rare today.

Nasa readings of solar activity suggest our planet could find itself in the grips of a similar freeze by 2025.

Professor Zharkova added: “We can only hope that the mini ice age will not be as severe as it was during the Maunder Minimum.

“This would dramatically affect food harvests in middle latitudes, because the vegetables and fruits will not have enough time for harvesting.

“So it could lead to a food deficit for people and animals, as we seen in the past couple of years when the snow in Spain and Greece in April and May demolished they veggie fields, and the UK had a deficit of broccoli, and other fruits and veggies.”

Fortunately, it’s not all doom and gloom – other experts believe that Grand Solar Minimums have little effect on our climate.

Instead, the cold snap experienced during the Maunder Minimum was likely triggered by several factors, including plumes of ash coughed out by a series of giant volcanic eruptions.

We’re also expecting global warming to increase average temperatures in the coming decades.
It’s unlikely, therefore, that the upcoming GSM will have any impact on global temperatures, solar scientist Mathew Owens told The Sun.

“The small reduction in the Sun’s energy associated with a solar minimum is vastly offset by effects caused by human activity, such as CO2 in the atmosphere,” Professor Owens, of Reading University, said.

“Thus there will probably be no detectable effect on global climate.”

Full story
 
* GWPF coverage of the new solar minimum *
 
see also video of Prof Valentina Zharkova's GWPF talk on
The Solar Magnet Field and the Terrestrial Climate


 
2) EU Lawmakers Concerned About Economic Cost Of Climate Targets
Bloomberg, 4 February 2020

The world’s biggest trading bloc shouldn’t rush into more ambitious climate targets this decade without assessing how lower emissions could impact the economy, according to a top European Union lawmaker.

With the EU preparing to forge its flagship Green Deal into law later this month, European People’s Party Parliamentarian Peter Liese said his party wants to see how the climate strategy will affect output before intermediary emission targets are set for 2030.

“We need to go step by step,” said the German lawmaker, who’s the environmental spokesman for the parliament’s biggest party. “For many colleagues an impact assessment is crucial to see what the consequences are.”

His comments underscore the complexity of turning the EU into the first carbon neutral continent by mid century. The unprecedented shift will affect everything from power production to agriculture and transport. The EU’s plan includes revamping energy taxes, agriculture and state aid policies while also considering border levies that account for carbon emissions.

Full post
 
3) UK Car Industry Slams Ban On Petrol, Diesel And Hybrids As ‘Unworkable’
Financial Times, 4 February 2020

The UK government’s new target to ban the sale of petrol, diesel and hybrid cars by 2035 has been slammed as unworkable by the auto industry, which warned it would lead consumers to hold on to polluting cars for longer.

Ministers had previously set a target to phase out “traditional” petrol and diesel sales by 2040, which excluded some hybrid cars that use both engines and batteries.

But the move to bring forward the ban by five years — part of a broad package to reduce the UK’s emissions to net zero by 2050 — and extend it to all hybrid cars would outlaw 98 per cent of vehicles currently on sale, forcing consumers and businesses to buy electric or hydrogen powered cars.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders described the new policy as a “date without a plan”.

Its chief executive Mike Hawes said that meeting the new goals would take “more than industry investment.” He urged the government to offer clear buying incentives for consumers, while making sure that people from “all income groups and regions” are able to afford cars. “This is about market transformation,” he said.

Edmund King, president of the Automobile Association, said the measure risked “backfiring” as consumers would hold on to older, polluting vehicles for longer, rather than buying cleaner hybrids over fears they will be unable to sell them in the future.

Full story
 
4) UK Govt To Scrap Subsidies For Electric Cars
The Times, 4 February 2020

Grants to help buy electric cars could be scrapped in the next two months despite government plans to bring forward a ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles.

The £3,500 subsidy scheme for buyers of plug-in cars expires at the end of March and motor industry leaders fear that it will be ditched in favour of other measures.

Ministers have already said the long-term future of the grant will be “inviable in terms of costs to the taxpayer” as registration rates grow.

Full story (£)
 
5) UK Government Has No Idea What Ban On Petrol & Diesel Cars Will Cost Taxpayers
Gaia Fawkes, 4 February 2020

Despite being asked eight times by Julia Hartley-Brewer this morning on TalkRADIO, Michael Gove failed to answer how much the Government’s proposed ban on diesel and petrol cars will cost taxpayers.


click on image above to listen to the interview

The radical policy has been brought forward from 2040 to 2035 “at the latest” this morning, yet the Government has not offered any indication of how the new infrastructure required will be funded.

If we use Tesla charging stations as a guide they cost some £200,000 each. The nation will need millions of charging stations, to cover the country from Lands End to John o’Groats will make HS2 costs seem like pocket change in comparison.

Listen to the interview
 
6) UK Businesses Worried Boris May Kill Heathrow Airport Expansion 
City A.M. 2 February 2020

Business groups warned that the failure to expand Heathrow would see the UK “fall behind the rest of the world” as the new runway’s future was again plunged into doubt this weekend.

It emerged that Spanish infrastructure giant Ferrovial was reportedly considering selling its 25 per cent stake in the airport if it could not get “adequate returns” for investors.

The setback came after the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) ruled in December that Heathrow could not spend more on early construction in order to ensure the runway was built by the end of 2026 as planned.

Full story
 
7) Not Listening To Boris: Japan Races to Build 22 New Coal-Burning Power Plants, Despite the Climate Risks
Hiroko Tabuchi, The New York Times, 3 February 2020

Just beyond the windows of Satsuki Kanno’s apartment overlooking Tokyo Bay, a behemoth from a bygone era will soon rise: a coal-burning power plant, part of a buildup of coal power that is unheard-of for an advanced economy.

It is one unintended consequence of the Fukushima  nuclear disaster almost a decade ago, which forced Japan to all but close its nuclear power program. Japan now plans to build as many as 22 new coal-burning power plants — one of the dirtiest sources of electricity — at 17 different sites in the next five years, just at a time when the world needs to slash carbon dioxide emissions to fight global warming.

“Why coal, why now?” said Ms. Kanno, a homemaker in Yokosuka, the site for two of the coal-burning units that will be built just several hundred feet from her home. “It’s the worst possible thing they could build.”

Together the 22 power plants would emit almost as much carbon dioxide annually as all the passenger cars sold each year in the United States. The construction stands in contrast with Japan’s effort to portray this summer’s Olympic Games in Tokyo as one of the greenest ever.

Full story
 
8) Britain’s Net Zero =  Carbon Emissions by India’s Steel Sector to Triple by 2050
Bloomberg, 4 February 2020

India’s steel industry is set to more than triple its carbon footprint by 2050 as demand for the metal in the world’s second-biggest producer soars.

Carbon dioxide emissions from the steel industry are projected to jump to 837 million tons over the next three decades from 242 million tons now as India’s demand for steel more than quadruples to about 490 million tons, The Energy and Resources Institute said in a report. It will also contribute more than a third of the nation’s total fossil fuel combustion emissions from 12% currently.

India currently has 977 steel plants and is one of the few brights spots for demand globally as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration rolls out a plan to spend about $1.5 trillion to upgrade and build infrastructure over the next five years. Steel is the biggest carbon dioxide emitter among Indian industries.

Full story
 
see also Ruth Lea: Carbon Policies Are ‘Futile Gesture Politics’


 9) And Finally: Climate Doomsayers Keep Putting Sell-By Dates On Their Credibility
Toby Young, The Spectator, 1 February 2020

I was slightly surprised when Greta Thunberg announced at Davos that we had eight years left to save the planet. As long as that? Admittedly, that’s four years less than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who put it at 12, although, come to think of it, that was last January, so presumably she now thinks we’ve got 11 years left.

But some doomsayers have been much less optimistic. According to Peter Wadhams, a Cambridge professor interviewed in the Guardian in 2013, Arctic ice would disappear by 2015 if we didn’t mend our ways, while Gordon Brown announced in 2009 that we had just 50 days to save the Earth. Then again, playing the long game can also catch up with you. In 2004, Observer readers were told Britain would have a ‘Siberian’ climate in 16 years’ time. We’re supposed to be in the midst of that now.

On the face of it, we should be grateful that these gloomsters make such oddly precise predictions. It’s like putting a sell-by date on their credibility. After all, when the soothsayer in question is proved wrong, they just shuffle off with their tail between their legs, never to be heard from again, right? In eight years’ time, when the planet hasn’t disappeared in a cloud of toxic gas, presumably Greta will throw up her arms and say: ‘Sorry guys. Looked like I was wrong about you ruining my childhood. I’m now going to become a flight attendant.’

But, weirdly, that never happens. No matter how often these ‘experts’ are shown to be no better at forecasting than Paul the Octopus — worse, actually — they just carry on as if nothing has happened. Take Paul Ehrlich, author of the 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb. ‘We must realise that unless we are extremely lucky, everybody will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years,’ he told the New York Times in 1969. Ehrlich also predicted America would be subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.

Ehrlich’s ‘bomb’ failed to explode, but his career didn’t. On the contrary, he’s now the Bing Professor of Population Studies at Stanford and the president of Stanford’s Center for Conservation Biology. All I can say is, it’s lucky he didn’t become a bookmaker.

The fact that Ehrlich is still an eminent environmentalist — and Prince Charles can pose alongside Greta Thunberg in Davos in spite of claiming we had eight years left to save the planet 11 years ago — helps explain why these Mystic Megs have no hesitation about making these forecasts. It’s a great way of drawing attention to their cause and there’s literally no cost to getting it wrong. The panjandrums of the mainstream media forgive them for spinning these yarns because they know they’re doing it ‘for the right reasons’. They’re not peddling alarmist nonsense — no, they’re just exaggerating the risk. In any case, they might be right and doesn’t the ‘precautionary principle’ dictate that we should change our behaviour just in case? Oddly, these same secular humanists don’t apply the logic of Pascal’s Wager to believing in God. That would be unscientific.

But is there also something else going on? I’m generous enough to think that these activists are not cynics trying to grab headlines, but are sincere in their prophecies of doom. For instance, when George Monbiot predicted a ‘structural global famine’ in as little as ten years’ time if we didn’t start eating less meat — this was in 2002 — he genuinely believed it. And when that famine failed to materialise, he didn’t abandon his apocalyptic environmentalism, but doubled-down, as readers of his Guardian column can testify.

Full post

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.