As Subsidies Run Out, 5000 German Wind Farms Face Shutdown
In this newsletter:
1) New Study: Islands Across the World Could Adapt To Rising Sea Levels
University of Plymouth, 10 June 2020
2) Green NGO Deletes David Attenborough Video Amid Racism Claims
The Times, 12 June 2020
3) As Subsidies Run Out, 5000 German Wind Farms Face Shutdown
Energie Zukunft, 9 June 2020
4) Europe’s Green Deal May Get Watered Down As Poorer Nations Fight For Fossil Fuel Power
Euro News, 11 June 2020
5) China’s Giant Fishing Fleet Depletes Stocks Around The World
The Times, 2 June 2020
6) US Solar Installations Fall Puts 72,000 Jobs At Risk
Financial Times, 11 June 2020
7) Allen Gilmer: The Unintended Consequences Of Shutting In Humans... And Oil Wells
Forbes, 11 June 2020
Full details:
1) New Study: Islands Across the World Could Adapt To Rising Sea Levels
University of Plymouth, 10 June 2020
Coral reef islands across the world could naturally adapt to survive the impact of rising sea levels, according to new research.
However, an international study led by the University of Plymouth (UK) suggests that perceived fate is far from a foregone conclusion.
The research, published in Science Advances, for the first time uses numerical modelling of island morphology alongside physical model experiments to simulate how reef islands – which provide the only habitable land in atoll nations – can respond when sea levels rise.
The results show that islands composed of gravel material can evolve in the face of overtopping waves, with sediment from the beach face being transferred to the island’s surface.
This means the island’s crest is being raised as sea level rises, with scientists saying such natural adaptation may provide an alternative future that can potentially support near-term habitability, albeit with additional management challenges, possibly involving sediment nourishment, mobile infrastructure and flood-proof housing.
The research was led by Gerd Masselink, Professor of Coastal Geomorphology in Plymouth, working with colleagues at the University of Auckland (New Zealand) and Simon Fraser University (Canada).
Professor Masselink, who heads Plymouth’s Coastal Processes Research Group, said:
"In the face of climate change and sea level rise, coral reef islands are among the most vulnerable coastal environments on the planet. Previous research into the future habitability of these islands typically considers them inert structures unable to adjust to rising sea level. Invariably, these studies predict significantly increased risk of coastal flooding and island inundation, and the concept of ‘island loss’ has become entrenched in discourses regarding the future of coral reef island communities. In turn, this has led to attention being focused on either building structural coastal defences or the exodus of island communities, with limited consideration of alternative adaptation strategies.
It is important to realise that these coral reef islands have developed over hundreds to thousands of years as a result of energetic wave conditions removing material from the reef structure and depositing the material towards the back of reef platforms, thereby creating islands. The height of their surface is actually determined by the most energetic wave conditions, therefore overtopping, flooding and island inundation are necessary, albeit inconvenient and sometime hazardous, processes required for island maintenance.”
Co-author Professor Paul Kench, currently Dean of Science at Simon Fraser University, Canada, said:
"The model provides a step-change in our ability to simulate future island responses to sea level rise and better resolve what the on-ground transformations will look like for island communities. Importantly, our results suggest that island drowning within the next few decades is not universally inevitable. Understanding how islands will physically change due to sea level rise provides alternative options for island communities to deal with the consequences of climate change. It is important to stress there is no one-size-fits-all strategy that will be viable for all island communities – but neither are all islands doomed.”
For the research, scientists created a scale model of Fatato Island, part of the Funafuti Atoll in Tuvalu, and placed it in the Coastal Ocean and Sediment Transport (COAST) Lab at the University of Plymouth.
It was then subjected to a series of experiments designed to simulate predicted sea level rises with the results showing that the island’s crest rose with the rising sea level, while retreating inland, as a result of water overwashing the island and depositing sediment on the island’s surface.
Full story
see also Rising Sea Levels May Build, Rather Than Destroy, Coral Reef Islands
2) Green NGO Deletes David Attenborough Video Amid Racism Claims
The Times, 12 June 2020
A conservation charity has apologised and deleted a video message by Sir David Attenborough in which images of Asian and white people are used in calling for lower population growth.
Sir David told the paper that he couldn’t remember if he watched the highly-criticised version of the clip
The video showed Asian people bathing in a river and then showed bigger crowds of white people. In his voiceover, Sir David says we should “stabilise the human population as low as we fairly can” to save the planet.
Other versions of the same video with the same message are still available online but they show only white people when Sir David talks of population growth.
WWF UK republished the video on Twitter on Friday, which was World Environment Day. It deleted it hours later and posted a message saying: “Earlier today we shared a video that could appear to support a narrative that people of colour are responsible for the pressures of a growing world population. This is not our intent at all. We have deleted the video and apologise — we will do better.”
Full story
see also GWPF coverage of Eco-Imperialism
3) As Subsidies Run Out, 5000 German Wind Farms Face Shutdown
Energie Zukunft, 9 June 2020
At the end of this year, 5000 German wind farms are no longer eligible for any subsidies. They face shutdown and Germany faces the loss of considerable amounts of green electricity.
The future of wind energy was already uncertain, now electricity prices have tanked due to the corona crisis. If the government does not intervene, Germany’s entire Energiewende will stall.
Around 5,000 wind turbines with a total output of 3.7 gigawatts (GW) will fall out of the 20-year EEG subsidy regime at the end of the year. Now the operators have another problem: Due to the corona pandemic, prices on the electricity market have dropped drastically, which means that the vast majority of older wind farms lack the prospect of economic viability. They face shutdown and the German electricity mix is threatened with the loss of considerable amounts of green electricity.
The amounts of electricity from the old wind turbines could be sold on the stock exchange or directly to energy suppliers. However, due to the corona crisis and the falling wholesale price for natural gas there has been a significant drop in prices on the electricity market in recent months. Last July, a megawatt hour of electricity cost over 53 euros, on March 23 it was just under 34 euros. The costs for the continued operation of the systems can hardly be recorded even at the cheapest locations, there are massive shutdowns.
Translation GWPF
Full story (in German)
4) Europe’s Green Deal May Get Watered Down As Poorer Nations Fight For Fossil Fuel Power
Euro News, 11 June 2020
At the end of May 2020, eight EU countries (Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) started lobbying to retain EU funds for natural gas projects.
They say that without natural gas, coal can’t be phased out in time to meet short and middle term climate targets.
From this, environmental groups are worried that Europe’s Green Deal is being watered down.
In earlier communications on the proposal, the European Commission called to phase out support for fossil fuels completely. Now the official line is: natural gas continues to play a key role in replacing coal.
Climate activists like Marcus Trilling from Climate Action Network want a block on any funding for natural gas from EU coronavirus recovery funds.
“We see the lobbying of the fossil fuel industry as well on the highest level in the commission, which still until today was not able to clearly say we don’t provide fossil fuel subsidies from the EU sources anymore,” says Trilling.
These are “investment decisions which are shaping the infrastructure, the economy of the decades to come. If I am now investing in fossil gas, then I am locking in emissions in those decades to come,” he went on.
Romanian Liberal Member of the European Parliament Dragoș Tudorache says investing in natural gas infrastructure is not a waste of money.
“Moving straight away from coal to something that is completely fossil fuel independent is impossible if you don’t transit through something. And that transition, unless other technology becomes available, is natural gas. Of course, this in time also has to be made sustainable in terms of our green goals. And there are technologies right now where hydrogen is expected to replace gradually natural gas and of course that has to be part of the projects that we are developing,” the MEP said.
Full story
5) China’s Giant Fishing Fleet Depletes Stocks Around The World
The Times, 2 June 2020
China’s exploitation of the world’s fish stocks is far greater than previously thought, with research showing the country has more than 12,000 vessels fishing beyond its waters, three times more than previous estimates.
The Zhoushan fleet heading out to sea at the beginning of the fishing season.(ABC News: Steve Wang)
The Chinese fleet is the biggest contributor to the “global fisheries crisis”, which has resulted in two thirds of the world’s commercial stocks being overfished or fished to the limit, according to a report by the Overseas Development Institute, a think tank.
China consumes more than a third of fish caught globally and is targeting the high seas or waters belonging to other countries after depleting its own stocks, the report says. At least 183 of the Chinese “distant water” vessels — those that fish outside national waters — have been found to be involved in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, it adds.
The study identified 1,821 of the Chinese vessels as trawlers, many of which are suspected of carrying out bottom trawling, a particularly destructive fishing technique.
Almost 1,000 of the vessels were found to be registered overseas, with 518 flying the flags of African nations. The report suggests that China is taking advantage of poor governance in developing countries by getting them to sign fisheries agreements that allow unsustainable levels of fishing in their waters.
Full story
6) US Solar Installations Fall Puts 72,000 Jobs At Risk
Financial Times, 11 June 2020
Solar installations by homes and businesses across the US are set to slide by a third this year, resulting in thousands of job losses, as the coronavirus pandemic knocks a booming industry off course.
Efforts to contain the spread of the virus led to widespread work stoppages as well as permit delays, while demand among consumers has tumbled, according to a joint report by Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association.
“Once you started to see the shelter-in-place and stay-at-home orders come down from states, that severely inhibited sales and construction,” said Austin Perea, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie and author of the report.
The process of installing “distributed solar” capacity — where electricity is produced by households and businesses using rooftop, ground or wall panels rather than by a central power plant — is usually a rapid one, taking between one to three months, and tends to involve face-to-face meetings.
As a result, despite a bumper first quarter, these installations were hit quickly by the efforts to contain the virus, and plunged in the second quarter.
With consumer spending set to remain low for the foreseeable future, smaller customers were unlikely to rush back to installing solar panels any time soon, according to Mr Perea. New capacity installed this year is expected to fall 31 per cent to about 3.4GW.
Full story
7) Allen Gilmer: The Unintended Consequences Of Shutting In Humans... And Oil Wells
Forbes, 11 June 2020
Tried buying a cheap bike at Walmart, lately? There are scant choices these days. This is one of the myriad of consequences, both intended and unintended, to our global health response to COVID-19 beyond the pandemic itself that should keep academicians busy for the next 20 years.
Over the last several months more people have been UN-employed, on both a real and a percentage basis levels, than has been seen since the Great Depression. Global supply chains have been resilience-tested in ways none have been tested before. Energy is at the very core of every supply chain. Absolutely nothing gets manufactured or moved from point A to point B without using some form of it.
The Complexity Of “The Invisible Hand”
Humans take for absolute granted the benefits accrued from stuff out of sight and out of mind. Only when the “invisible hand” is handcuffed is there an opportunity to truly see its workings.
The economic system is much like an ecosystem. Humanity has been conditioned to worry about ecosystem collapse, with reflexive efforts to save species, yet no such concern exists around the economy. Why? Fundamentally, little disruptions to it are magically solved. [...]
A Black Swan Cockfight
The pandemic has been characterized as a “black swan,” a rare, unpredictable event with potentially severe consequences beyond what’s normally expected. For folks in the energy industry, Russia’s efforts to not play nice with OPEC+ in an effort to stick a fork in US unconventional oil and gas, combined with a structural deficiency in the futures markets which allowed spot prices to drop to laughable negative values turned a dangerous tragedy into a black swan cock fight, where every rule is thrown out. The stuff of nightmares.
The pandemic response shut down human and supply transportation virtually overnight. As much as 30 million barrels of oil per day, the product of 20 years of steady demand growth, of “just in time” deliverability of crude oil needed a place to land. The ironic aspect is that the remaining 70 million barrels per day keep modern civilization working at lock down levels and have kept humans dangerously oblivious to the consequences of losing that base load. How quickly can we recover as the global economic system comes out of forced hibernation? The global energy industry has quickly slashed workforce and capital budgets planning for the worst.
US oil companies underwent a shut-in of their own, curtailing production from thousands of wells in the US. It’s estimated that over 1.8 million barrels per day will be curtailed over the second quarter of this year, with the largest percentage of curtailments among the largest producers.
These large-scale shut-ins have long-term consequences. Analysts vary on how long it will take for supply and demand to balance. In the meantime, as shut-in wells are brought back online, the data provides interesting implications for the future.
It's a fascinating problem. For conventional reservoirs, shutting in wells runs the very real risk of never getting them back, which lies in stark contrast of shutting in gas wells. For low-producing conventional “stripper” wells, shut-ins may well be permanent, as it’s unlikely they will come back at a level that makes production economic. This, in turn, impacts communities relying on severance and ad valorem taxes. In many rural communities, revenue from these wells provides a stable foundational portion of the tax base for fire and police, ambulances, schools and social funding.
A Happy Ending?
In an internal discussion with several Enverus producer members last month, they reported that their unconventional wells that are slowly being brought back on line as the spot price increases past $30.00 per barrel, are exhibiting higher rates than prior to shut-in, with one operator reporting new flows more than 2.5 times pre shut in rates. This “magical” behavior makes some sense. An unconventional oil well owes its ability to flow to being a “solution gas drive” reservoir. It produces oil as part of the gas coming out of solution as the pressure drops. It is the same mechanism an aerosol can exhibits to deliver its aerosolized liquids.
The induced fractures surrounding the wellbore contain a lot of oil, and have higher relative permeability and porosity than the very small pores in the rocks themselves. The small molecular size of natural gas (mostly methane) relative to its liquid brethren allow it to preferentially seep from the rock pores into the fractures and “re-energize” the oil remaining.
The question remains whether this enhanced production just accelerates the production of the recoverable oil in the wellbore or does it actually increase the Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)? Will this Black Swan Cock Fight yield, in the end, a powerful new production management tool for unconventional wells to help counterbalance their rapid production declines? Maybe.
It would certainly be an ironic, yet unintended response to Russian efforts to damage US unconventional production. It will certainly accelerate our understanding of the reservoir and charge dynamics. With demand still finding its foothold in the market, however, it could impact overall supply and supply overhang.
There is an old saying- “That which doesn’t kill us makes us stronger”. The pandemic is a stress test not just for medicine, but for the global economy. In hydrocarbons, what may be a death blow to a certain kind of well may very well be a shot of adrenaline to the heart of another. Given that North America is alone in producing consequential unconventional hydrocarbons, this could very well be wonderful news to a beleaguered class of producers.
As is usually the case, policies or regulations that insist on “one size fits all” are a guarantee to be unoptimized overall, and, in some cases, tragically destructive. This applies to the economy at large as well. Data and experimental insight can help lead IF we use them objectively. We should seek a day where we aren’t blindly reacting.
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The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.
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