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Saturday, April 3, 2021

GWPF Newsletter - India: Net Zero targets are ‘pie in the sky’

 





COP26 climate summit may have to be postponed again

In this newsletter:

1) 'Pie in the sky' - Net Zero agenda faltering
GWPF, 1 April 2021
 
2) India: Net zero targets are ‘pie in the sky’
BBC News, 1 April 2021

 
3) China burned over half the world’s coal last year, despite Xi Jinping’s net-zero pledge
Forbes, 29 March 2021

4) Will Xi Jinping accept Biden’s invitation to the US climate summit?
South China Morning Post, 1 April 2021
 
5) EU rebuffs US concerns over carbon border tax threat
Financial Times, 31 March 2021
 
6) The Future Of U.S. LNG Hangs In The Balance
OilPrice.com, 31 March 2021
 
7) Emmanuel Macron sparks crisis by ignoring own climate pledge - 15 MPs quit party in fury
Daily Express, 30 March 2021
 
8) Andrew Montford: The RSPB, wind farms and a change of direction
The Conservative Woman, 1 April 2021
 
9) And finally: COP26 climate summit may have to be postponed again – or radically changed – due to Covid
Sky News, 31 March 2021

Full details:

1) 'Pie in the sky' - Net Zero agenda faltering
GWPF, 1 April 2021
 
As India castigates the West’s Net Zero agenda ‘pie in the sky’ and developing nations are demanding hundred of $billions in support, the Net Zero agenda is at risk of faltering.


 
Yesterday, Pakistan’s prime minister Imran Khan warned that COP26 will end in failure without hundreds of billions in annual support from the rich West. Developing countries would need about $400 billion a year in climate finance support to shift towards low carbon development pathways, yet developed countries had failed to deliver the $100 billion a year of climate finance promised as part of the Paris agreement.
 
Now, India has come out fighting, calling the West’s 2050 Net Zero targets “pie in the sky.” India’s energy minister said poor nations want to continue using fossil fuels and the rich countries “can’t stop it”.
 
According to both the UK and US governments, at the UN climate summit in November all countries should adopt Net Zero emissions targets similar to those adopted by Western nations. The fundamental problem with this expectation is that it contravenes the Paris Climate Agreement which cements the UN’s key principle of ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities.‘ This principle acknowledges that developing nations have different capabilities and differing responsibilities in reducing CO2 emissions.

In a recent interview, India’s climate negotiator Chandrashekhar Dasgupta made clear that the West’s Net Zero agenda undermined the principle of equity and “common but differentiated responsibilities” of developed and developing countries. This position also explains why India is demanding that richer countries adopt “net negative” emissions targets.
 
2) India: Net zero targets are ‘pie in the sky’
BBC News, 1 April 2021

Sharp divisions between the major global emitters have emerged at a series of meetings designed to make progress on climate change. 










India lambasted the richer world’s carbon cutting plans, calling long term net zero targets, “pie in the sky.”

Their energy minister said poor nations want to continue using fossil fuels and the rich countries “can’t stop it”.
 
China meanwhile declined to attend a different climate event organised by the UK.

Trying to lead 197 countries forward on the critical global issue of climate change is not a job for the faint hearted, as the UK is currently finding out. […]
 
India, the world’s fourth largest emitter, doesn’t seem keen to join the club.
“2060 sounds good, but it is just that, it sounds good,” Raj Kumar Singh, India’s minister for power, told a meeting organised by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
 
“I would call it, and I’m sorry to say this, but it is just a pie in the sky.”
 
To the discomfort of his fellow panellists, Mr Singh singled out developed countries where per capita emissions are much higher than in India.
 
Full story
 
3) China burned over half the world’s coal last year, despite Xi Jinping’s net-zero pledge
Forbes, 29 March 2021

Despite its pledge to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2060, China continues to burn more coal than any other developed nation, relying on the fossil fuel to satisfy the nation’s surging demand for electricity.





 













According to a report released Monday by U.K.-based energy and climate research group Ember, China accounted for 53% of the world’s coal-powered electricity in 2020—nine percentage points higher than its share in 2015, when China joined the Paris Agreement.
 
“Despite some progress, China is still struggling to curb its coal generation growth,” Ember senior electricity policy analyst Muyi Yang said. “[F]ast-rising demand for electricity” in China continues to be satisfied by burning coal.

China’s electricity usage has surged 33% since 2015. According to the International Energy Agency, demand from China’s steel and cement industry—propped up by the state’s heavy infrastructure investment—is one of the primary drivers of electricity consumption, alongside increasing automation of the manufacturing industry.
 
To China’s credit, it supplied over half of its new electricity demand with renewable energy, Ember says. China is the world’s largest producer of wind and solar energy and the world’s largest investor in renewables. But China continues to power 46% of new—and 70% of total—electricity generation by burning fossil fuels.

According to Ember, China was the only G20 nation to increase coal-generation last year, with a 2% uptick. China is also among the largest foreign investors in new fossil fuel projects. In 2018, over 40% of funding from President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative was plowed into coal projects.

To reach its target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2060—a goal Xi set last September—China needs to slash the percentage of electricity generated by fossil fuels down from 46% to about 20% by 2050. But China’s own strategy for reaching net-zero doesn’t envision any cut in fossil fuel generation before at least 2030 and calls for adding more coal capacity before then.
 
Full story

4) Will Xi Jinping accept Biden’s invitation to the US climate summit?
South China Morning Post, 1 April 2021

Chinese leader has yet to accept White House invitation to global talks but analysts hope dialogue can prevail













Despite tensions, Washington and Beijing do not yet appear to have given up on some form of collaboration on climate issues.

As the US waits to learn if President Xi Jinping will attend a virtual White House climate summit later this month, analysts warn the two countries still have a deep and mutual distrust to overcome about each other’s commitment to saving the environment.

President Joe Biden issued the invitation last week, in a sign his administration has not ruled out working with Beijing to try and solve the looming global crisis. The White House did not respond to an inquiry about whether Xi had accepted, while the Chinese embassy in Washington said Xi’s foreign agenda would be announced by Beijing.

On the US side, analysts say the distrust comes in part from watching China – which announced a carbon neutrality pledge by the year 2060 – continue to build new coal power plants around the world, a major source of pollution.

Coal is the “dominant destination for China’s overseas energy investment,” said Cecilia Han Springer, senior researcher at Boston University’s Global China Initiative. “Biden’s commitment to phasing out public finance for fossil fuels overseas is putting pressure on some other countries, like Japan, to do the same,” she said. “Such a parallel commitment from China would be very surprising to me – welcome, but surprising.”

China, meanwhile, will wonder if Washington’s re-commitment to the Paris climate agreement will be temporary or permanent, analysts said. Biden rejoined the agreement on his first day in office, reversing the decision by his predecessor Donald Trump to leave the deal.

“I would expect the Chinese would like to see forward movement” from the US, said Deborah Seligsohn, an assistant professor of political science at Villanova University. “President Biden just proposed his infrastructure plan,” she added, referring to the US$2 trillion package announced on Wednesday that – if passed by Congress – would include billions of dollars to reduce emissions in the US. “This is precisely what delivering means.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she wanted the bill to clear the House chamber by July 4, US Independence Day, but it is unclear what the legislation will ultimately look like after any amendments by Congress.

The White House has said the US will announce an “ambitious 2030 emissions target” under the Paris agreement ahead of the April 22-23 summit. “In his invitation, the president urged leaders to use the summit as an opportunity to outline how their countries also will contribute to stronger climate ambition,” it said.

Invitations have also gone out to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan.

If Xi does attend, it will be the first time he and Biden meet, even virtually, as leaders of the world’s two biggest economies and emitters. The two men spent many hours together a decade ago when they were both vice-presidents.

Despite worsening US-China relations, Washington and Beijing do not yet appear to have given up on the possibility of collaborating in some form on climate issues, even if they remain at odds on nearly every other aspect of the relationship.
 
Full story
 
5) EU rebuffs US concerns over carbon border tax threat
Financial Times, 31 March 2021

Bloc’s climate tsar says trading partners should expect the tool to be used if they do not meet required standards

The European Union would have “no hesitation” in using a carbon border tax adjustment to protect its industries if the bloc’s trading partners put companies in the region at a disadvantage over climate targets, the EU climate tsar has said.

This is despite the frosty reception for the idea from allies led by John Kerry, US president Joe Biden’s climate envoy. Kerry warned this month in an interview with the FT that such a tax should be a “last resort”.

A tax on imports from countries that were not committed to reaching climate neutrality by mid-century is being drawn up by the EU.

Speaking at an FT climate conference on Tuesday, Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the EU’s green deal, said the bloc’s trading partners should expect the tool to be used if they did not meet the required standards.

“If there is a serious risk of carbon leakage, if we take the measures to comply with [the Paris Agreement] and others don’t, and it leads to a disadvantage to our industries, I will have no hesitation whatsoever to introduce carbon border adjustment mechanism,” he said.

If countries were moving “in the same direction, even if they take different paths” then “the reason for the carbon border adjustment mechanism disappears”, he added.

Brussels has said the mechanism will be designed to target imports “surgically”, and it is expected to be applied initially to certain goods from neighbouring countries in eastern Europe, Turkey and north Africa.
 
Full story
 
6) The Future Of U.S. LNG Hangs In The Balance
OilPrice.com, 31 March 2021

Soaring American exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could become a powerful tool of the Biden Administration to help other countries reduce their carbon footprint from more emission-intensive fossil fuels such as coal, U.S. shale gas producers say.   
 
Moreover, “American natural gas is the sharpest diplomatic tool the Biden administration can wield in energy-related foreign policy and international trade negotiations,” David Callahan, president of the Pittsburgh-based Marcellus Shale Coalition, wrote in InsideSources.com this week. 
 
However, the Biden Administration doesn’t yet have a precise position on natural gas, especially with regards to the domestic energy mix in light of the climate agenda and the ambitions to have 100 percent clean electricity by 2035. 
 
U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said last week, “We need to get to 100% clean electricity by 2035,” acknowledging this is a very ambitious goal. 
 
Just for reference, natural gas accounted for the largest share of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation in 2020, at 40.3 percent, with fossil fuels at 60.3 percent share, also due to coal’s 19.3-percent share of the power mix. 
 
Despite the growing global backlash against natural gas and despite its clean energy agenda, the Administration may have to forgo a tough stance on gas, at least in the short and medium-term, with the narrative that American LNG is helping major coal-dependent energy consumers such as China and India to burn a fossil fuel that is cleaner than coal.   
 
In energy-related foreign policy, the Biden Administration is following the Trump Administration’s tough stance toward the Russia-led Nord Stream 2. It has reiterated threats of U.S. sanctions on companies helping Russian giant Gazprom to complete the controversial natural gas pipeline in Europe. 

American LNG is gaining ground in Eastern European countries like Poland and Lithuania. Those countries are eager to shake off Russia’s dominance over their natural gas supply - and the political clout that comes with it.  But Western Europe has started to have second thoughts about imports of U.S. LNG due to the emissions associated with shale gas production. This could potentially undermine the LNG-related diplomacy in western European countries. 
 
In Asia, the world’s main gas demand growth driver, U.S. exports of LNG have been soaring, according to EIA data, and could contribute to the coal-to-gas switch in China and India. 
 
Full story

7) Emmanuel Macron sparks crisis by ignoring own climate pledge - 15 MPs quit party in fury
Daily Express, 30 March 2021
 
Emmanuel Macron is facing a fresh crisis after 15 MPs left his party in anger over broken climate promises.



















The politicians have all left Emmanuel Macron's La Republique en Marche (LREM) over the President's lack of commitment to environmental and social issues. The French leader has failed to stick to his famous "make our planet great again" slogan from 2017, sparking the fury of those both in opposition and in his own party.

Jennifer De Temmerman, an MP and former LREM member, said the President's commitment was "skin deep".
 
She told Politico: “It’s all communication, smoke and mirrors. He lectures others, but in reality, his actions in France don’t pass muster.”
 
“You have countries whose per capita emissions are four or five or 12 times the world average. The question is when are they going to come down?”
 
“What we hear is that by 2050 or 2060 we will become carbon neutral, 2060 is far away and if the people emit at the rate they are emitting the world won’t survive, so what are you going to do in the next five years that’s what the world wants to know.”

Full story
 
8) Andrew Montford: The RSPB, wind farms and a change of direction
The Conservative Woman, 1 April 2021

The RSPB will not explicitly support offshore wind, but they will not take a stand against it either, although they fear the North Sea is on the brink of an ecological disaster. 











LAST month the House of Lords Environment Committee heard evidence about the effects of offshore windfarms on the marine environment. The hearing was notable for revealing signs of concern from the RSPB about the devastation that is potentially going to be unleashed on the North Sea, a crime in which they have been complicit because of their silence up until now. Perhaps, after all these years, they are getting close to confronting the evidence of the harm their support for windfarms has done to birds.

The North Sea, RSPB policy officer Helen Quayle told the committee, is ‘littered with cabling from energy infrastructure’, going on to explain that this is a big problem for sandeels, a keystone species which is a staple food for many birds and other fish.
 
Now she tells us.
 
It seems that the society’s view is that the North Sea faces ‘an irreversible loss of wildlife’ as a result of offshore wind farm developments, overfishing and (inevitably) climate change.
 
And this is without considering the possibility that windfarms may soon be an impassable barrier to migratory birds, which, as I’ve pointed out before, may be their worst impact. None of the witnesses mentioned this worry, although there were vague allusions to other problems to come from what another witness, Professor Melanie Austen, called our decision to urbanise the oceans: ‘We are already getting modelling to show that even just extracting that amount of wind energy may have far-field, large-scale effects that we do not really understand and are not considering very deeply.’
 
However, the conclusion that the RSPB are now very worried about offshore wind and its effect on wildlife seems unavoidable. As the hearing neared its end, Lord Cameron of Dillington repeatedly invited Helen Quayle to support the suggestion that ‘wind farms are one of the best weapons we have against climate change’. She steadfastly refused to do so, instead hedging her response in terms of ‘joint solutions’ and a ‘strategic approach’.
 
In other words, the RSPB will not explicitly support offshore wind, but they will not take a stand against it either, although they fear the North Sea is on the brink of an ecological disaster. And this is good enough for the Lords’ Environment Committee, whose response to that possible ‘irreversible loss of wildlife’ has been to write a letter to Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, asking for better research and more information.
 
If we are going to cause an environmental catastrophe, I suppose we should at least record all the gory details.
 
Full post & comments
 
9) And finally: COP26 climate summit may have to be postponed again – or radically changed – due to Covid
Sky News, 31 March 2021

Two government sources suggest the Glasgow summit might have to be delayed for a second time amid signs the pandemic is worsening in parts of the world.





 






The COP26 climate change summit may have to be postponed or radically changed because of the coronavirus pandemic, according to government sources.
 
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is battling to ensure the flagship November summit is held face-to-face by ensuring participants are vaccinated and subject to a robust testing regime.
 
However, two government sources suggested the Glasgow summit might still have to be delayed for a second time amid signs the pandemic is worsening in parts of the world.
It was postponed by a year from last November because of COVID-19.

Full story

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.

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