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Tuesday, May 25, 2021

GWPF Newsletter: EU leaders brace for clash over astronomical cost of Net Zero plans

 




Germany proposes to exclude China from carbon border tax

In this newsletter:

1) EU leaders brace for clash over astronomical cost of Net Zero plans
GWPF, 23 May 2021
 
2) EU leaders brace for clash on how to implement climate goals
Financial Times, 22 May 2021

3) After Biden's green light for Russian pipeline, Germany proposes to exclude China from carbon border tax
Reuters, 23 May 2021
   
4) Dead in the water: Member countries push back against IEA’s net zero road map
Financial Times, 23 May 2021
 
5) The IEA may have given OPEC a huge gift
OilPrice.com, 19 May 2021
 
6) Australian Labor party in danger of being ‘wiped out’ over climate obsession
Daily Mail, 24 May 2021
  
7) 17 million British homeowners face hefty fines if they do not replace their gas boilers with expensive green alternatives
The Sun, 24 May 2021
 
8) UK Govt's Net Zero priority threatens concrete flood defences
9) And finally: The BBC’s apocalyptic vision of sport in 2050
Paul Homewood, The Conservative Woman, 24 May 2021

Full details:

1) EU leaders brace for clash over astronomical cost of Net Zero plans
GWPF, 23 May 2021

As the astronomical costs of Net Zero plans are becoming evident by the day, EU leaders face the prospect of growing discontent and revolt over the relentless rise in energy prices and consumer pain.





 






After years of assuring voters that renewable energy will make energy cheaper and Europeans better off, EU leaders are now forced to concede that these plans will actually hurt consumers very badly.
 
The EU Commission is proposing a series of far-reaching measures that will drive up the cost of running a car and heating homes. If it goes ahead, households will have to shoulder not only rising energy costs, but also the rising cost of Europe’s record carbon price in their heating bills and fuel pump prices.

It doesn’t take much to consider the political upheaval and public revolt once the pain of Net Zero is felt by voters.
 
2) EU leaders brace for clash on how to implement climate goals
Financial Times, 22 May 2021
 
European leaders are on a collision course over the looming impact of radical emission targets on their citizens and businesses as the cost of going green hits home across the EU. 
 
A summit in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday is set to be dominated in part by discussions on how to decarbonise swaths of the European economy so that the bloc can meet its goal of reducing CO2 emissions by 55 per cent by the end of the decade. 

In particular, the summit may blow into the open the distributional questions at the heart of the green agenda as it will impact voters’ disposable incomes by driving up household energy bills, pump prices and food costs. 
 
Officials expect a divisive debate that pits richer countries in western Europe against their poorer and more polluting counterparts in the south and east. In a sign of how contentious the debate may prove, ambassadors clashed on Friday over the meeting’s draft environment conclusions.

One EU official said the summit would see leaders “reaffirm their sensitivities, their priorities” on the climate debate, warning that many of the trade-offs would be “very tricky to solve”….
 
Brussels will propose a series of far-reaching measures, including the potential expansion of the ETS to retail sectors such as cars and heating. If it goes ahead, households will have to shoulder part of the cost of Europe’s record carbon price in their heating bills and fuel pump prices.

Full post
 
3) After Biden's green light for Russian pipeline, Germany proposes to exclude China from carbon border tax
Reuters, 23 May 2021
 
Germany wants the European Union to create a “climate club” with countries like the U.S., Japan and possibly even China to avoid trade friction linked to green tariffs such as a planned carbon border levy.
 

Chinese President Xi Jinping is shown holding a video conference with European and EU leaders in Brussels on Dec. 30. Germany has called on the EU to reach out to countries outside the bloc to avoid trade tensions over environmental taxes.  © Reuters
 
German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Saturday after talks with Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa, the current holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, that Europe must engage with countries to agree joint rules and common standards on how to reduce carbon emissions.
 
Scholz said climate protection measures would have an impact on the competitiveness of German and European companies, especially those in energy-intensive sectors.
 
“And so it is a wise thing not just to discuss about how the European Union can do this and how we could avoid to have difficulties in the competition on the global market afterwards,” he said.
 
The EU should approach countries such as the United States, Canada, Britain, Japan and China to discuss and possibly agree on the same steps and principles.

Full story
 
4) Dead in the water: Member countries push back against IEA’s net zero road map
Financial Times, 23 May 2021

Japan, Australia and Norway will continue fossil fuel investment — against watchdog’s emissions advice [never mind China and India]

Japan and Australia have disputed the findings of the International Energy Agency’s report on reaching net zero emissions by 2050, indicating they will continue fossil fuel investment despite the watchdog’s advice.

The push back from member countries — traditionally big fossil fuel consumers — and global energy producers, highlights the controversy surrounding the IEA’s recommendations which include halting fossil fuel exploration and spending on new projects.

While the IEA has said there is a need to continue investing in already discovered deposits and existing projects, critics say the body does not adequately acknowledge the risks to future energy security, and fails to provide a backstop should the world not manage to create adequate low-carbon alternatives to replace fossil fuels.

Japan, a founding member of the IEA, has always paid close attention to the Paris-based energy watchdog’s advice, but last week’s report prompted scepticism from the ministry of economy, trade and industry.

“It’s a fact that there are sections the Japanese government does not agree with,” said minister Hiroshi Kajiyama, pointing to the recommendations on halting new fossil fuel investment and phasing out coal.

Japan has adopted a target of net zero emissions by 2050, but is struggling to formulate a plan on how to get there. Nuclear fuel is unpopular in the wake of the Fukushima disaster and the country’s mountainous islands make renewables relatively expensive.

Last week, Japan joined a pledge by G7 environment ministers to halt all government investment in international coal-fired power stations by the end of this year, albeit without a specific end date for domestic coal.

Australian resources minister Keith Pitt pointed out that previous IEA reports outlined a bigger role for coal, and said the latest scenario failed to sufficiently account for carbon capture technology.

“Coal, oil and gas will continue to be a big part of Australia’s energy mix,” said Pitt.

Australia is using public funds to pursue a “gas-fired recovery” policy in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and is resisting international pressure to set a net zero emissions target.

Norway’s centre-right government and main centre-left opposition party, both traditionally strong supporters of the IEA, have also expressed some scepticism over the report ahead of September elections where the future of oil is likely to play a large part.

Oil minister Tina Bru said that it would not “make a difference from a global perspective” if Norway stopped its oil activities. She argued that the biggest petroleum producer in Europe could produce oil and gas with lower emissions than many other countries. [...]

Several energy associations criticised the report: the World Nuclear Association called it “highly impractical” and the World Coal Association said it was unrealistic.

The International Gas Union warned that the road map could present a serious risk to energy security. “We would see significant disruption in power supplies, transportation systems . . . and significant rise in energy taxes,” said Andy Calitz, secretary-general of the IGU.

Full story (£)
 
5) The IEA may have given OPEC a huge gift
OilPrice.com, 19 May 2021
 
While it is perfectly plausible that the West's Big Oil companies could be pressured into shrinking its oil and gas output by governments and shareholders, the state-owned oil companies of OPEC members are free to continue their exploration efforts. 

An immediate halt to oil exploration is one of the steps that need to be taken in order for the world to reach Paris Agreement climate change commitments. That’s what the International Energy Agency said in a first-of-its-kind roadmap to net zero.
 
The roadmap features a lot of fascinating changes that our species would need to make to their way of life by 2050, and most of them are already popular enough with various forecasters: a massive increase in electric car sales is there and an equally massive shift to wind and solar power as sources of electricity.
 
Yet an immediate stop of new oil exploration has so far not been on the agenda of anyone but environmentalist groups on the radical end of the activism spectrum. With its call for the end of all new oil exploration, however, the IEA may have given OPEC a huge gift.
 
“Beyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway, and no new coal mines or mine extensions are required,” the authority said in its report.

The prediction is global, but of course, there is no way the IEA or any other single agency could force countries to stop boosting their oil production until demand for it subsides. This is exactly what the Gulf members of OPEC and Russia are doing. They are building their oil production capacity in a bid to monetize their natural resource assets while there is still demand for them. But here’s the twist: roadmaps are not factual information. They are general projections at best, and wishful thinking with figures thrown in at worst.
 
“The contraction of oil and natural gas production will have far-reaching implications for all the countries and companies that produce these fuels,” the IEA said in its roadmap, adding, notably, “For oil, the OPEC share of a much-reduced global oil supply increases from around 37% in recent years to 52% in 2050, a level higher than at any point in the history of oil markets.”
 
Indeed, the authority clarifies that this concentration of oil supply will be a lot less significant than the concentration of global oil supply that is in OPEC’s hands today when the whole world is running on oil. According to the roadmap, by 2050, oil demand will be a fraction of what it is today, so nobody would care about whether OPEC controls 30 or 50 percent of the global supply. The problem is that while the more benevolent parts of the roadmap are arguably quite hypothetical, the increase in OPEC’s control of global oil reserves is quite a realistic scenario.
 
The call for a suspension of new oil exploration would resonate with the new cohort of ESG investors who have been pressuring Big Oil—the world’s largest non-state producers of oil—into effectively moving away from their core business. It’s far-fetched to say that activist investors would be able to pressure Big Oil into suspending all new exploration activities by the end of this year, but it is not unthinkable that it could happen in a few years or a decade.
 
In contrast, OPEC producers are state-owned entities. There are no activist investors who could pressure Rosneft—despite BP’s stake in it—or Adnoc or even Saudi Aramco into stopping their production capacity-building efforts. OPEC countries are not members of the European Union and cannot be forced to comply with EU’s net-zero goals. They’re also not members of the OECD.
 
Full story
  
6) Australia Labor party in danger of being ‘wiped out’ over climate obsession
Daily Mail, 24 May 2021
 
Australia’s Labor Party is in danger of being wiped out as a political force because it has lost touch with its base of blue-collar workers, Joel Fitzgibbon has warned.
 
The outspoken Labor MP, who has represented the federal division of Hunter since 1996, said the party’s loss in the NSW state seat of Upper-Hunter on Saturday was a huge ‘wake up call’.

Labor’s first preference vote plunged from 28 per cent to 22 per cent as the Nationals were returned with 32 per cent of primary votes, a small drop from 34 per cent in 2019.

Under-pressure NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay, who was hoping to win the marginal coal-mining seat following the resignation of Nationals MP Michael Johnsen due to allegations he raped a sex worker which he denies, admitted the result was ‘terrible’.

She has insisted she will not quit but is facing unrest in the ranks, with four MPs – Chris Minns, Paul Scully, Ryan Park and Michael Daley – touted as possible replacements.

Labor campaigned on a pro-coal message, even picking a former coalminer as its candidate, but Mr Fitzgibbon believes the party lost its base by ‘demonising’ resources workers in its fight against climate change over the past few years.

‘It’s a wake up call to all of us in the Labor Party and indeed the Labor movement,’ he told 2GB radio on Monday morning.

‘If we’re not careful it will go the way of the Kodak brand.’

Mr Fitzgibbon even threatened to retire from politics if Labor doesn’t start speaking up more strongly for blue-collar workers.

Mr Fitzgibbon said Labor needs to appeal to its working-class base. Pictured: Coalminers protest against a campaign to stop the Adani coalmine in Queensland in 2019

The Hunter MP, who almost lost his coal-mining seat at the 2019 election, believes resources workers are suspicious of Labor due to its ambitious climate change policies.

‘That suspicion is only fuelled by decisions made late or on the eve of the by-election to oppose the gas generator in the Hunter Valley, a $600 million investment, they just shake their heads and say, ”We thought so”,’ he said.
 
Full story
 
7) Seventeen million British homeowners face hefty fines if they do not replace their gas boilers with expensive green alternatives
The Sun, 24 May 2021

The fines will be at the centre of Net Zero plans to be unveiled in the coming weeks — despite PM Boris Johnson promising Sun readers they would not be out of pocket.












HOMEOWNERS will face hefty fines if they do not replace their old gas boilers with expensive green alternatives.

Almost a third of the UK’s carbon emissions come from heating systems, with ministers warned this must be rapidly cut to hit their vow to make the country carbon neutral by 2050.

The Business department wants to make it mandatory for anyone replacing a conventional gas boiler or doing significant renovations to go green.

But replacements such as eco-friendly heat pumps are ­typically at least £10,000.












Now government officials are plotting a costly assault on the wallets of those who do not comply with planned eco rules, says Bloomberg news wire.

Enforcement options “could include the threat of financial penalties for non-compliance”.

The fines will be at the centre of Net Zero plans to be unveiled in the coming weeks — despite PM Boris Johnson promising Sun readers they would not be out of pocket.
 
Full story
 
8) UK Govt's Net Zero priority threatens concrete flood defences
The Times, 24 May 2021

Flood-prone communities may miss out on concrete flood defences under plans by the Environment Agency to cut its carbon footprint by focusing on nature-based solutions to flooding.

It plans to reduce construction of traditional concrete barriers and instead slow the flow of water off higher ground by restoring peatland, planting trees and reconnecting rivers with their natural floodplains.

The agency will commit itself today to almost halving emissions from building flood defences by 2030. It is publishing a plan setting out how it will meet its target of achieving “net zero” emissions by 2030 — 20 years ahead of the target for the whole of the UK.

Concrete defences are by far the biggest source of the agency’s emissions, accounting for more than half the total. It says that building these defences contributes 148,000 tonnes of carbon emissions a year. It plans to cut this by 45 per cent by 2030 to 81,400 tonnes.

The plan aims to achieve this “by managing flood risk through nature-based solutions wherever possible, reducing the need for construction and achieving wider benefits like green spaces for communities and better wildlife habitat”.

Full story (£)
 
9) And finally: The BBC’s apocalyptic vision of sport in 2050
Paul Homewood, The Conservative Woman, 24 May 2021
 
‘We don’t think you stupid people have taken in our propaganda well enough yet, so we’re going to try another approach – scare you into thinking the sports that you love are all over unless you go completely green.’
 
AS the next Climate Jamboree, the on/off COP26, approaches, the BBC has been busy ramping up its propaganda to ever more absurd levels, with Roger Harrabin and Matt McGrath, truly the Laurel and Hardy of environmental journalism, at the helm.
 
This week the Beeb has been broadcasting a series of make-believe reports on what sport will look like in 2050, thanks to global warming. Flooded football pitches, scorched tennis courts, no more Winter Olympics and an end to outdoor sport as we know it. If this scary imaginative future sounds like needless, made-up fear-porn, that’s because it is.
 
The series kicked off with with an interview with Joe Root, who said it was ‘scary to think that cricket may not be played outdoors in certain parts of the world in 30 years’ time because of the impact of climate change.’ Joe, you may recall, had to be taken to hospital for dehydration three years ago after batting in sweltering heat in Sydney. It was so hot that day that temperatures nearly reached those recorded in 1939!
 
Joe may be our best batsman, but as far as climate change is concerned, he appears to have left his brain in his kit bag. The Aussies play their test cricket in December and January, not because those months are the coolest but because they are the hottest. If it really does get much hotter, all they have to do is bring matches forward to November or push them back to February.

Meanwhile Joe’s fellow players back home would be excused for wondering which planet he was on, while they shiver through a cold, wet May!
 
Next up is the football World Cup, which to beat the heat will have to be played in climate-controlled stadiums, with 40-man squads and 30-minute halves. This is all a bit rich, given that the next World Cup will be played in Qatar, one of the hottest countries in the world.

Pride of place though must surely go to the BBC’s vision of golf. Apparently proper golf will no longer be possible because courses will be flooded, destroyed by drought or under the sea. Instead there will be ‘Extreme Golf’, a bit like crazy golf but on a larger scale, played amongst the concrete ruins of our decommissioned power plants, abandoned industrial sites and office blocks (uninsurable apparently because of repeated storm damage).

What will the BBC conjure up next? Underwater tennis at Wimbledon? Camel racing around the deserts at Royal Ascot? Lewis Hamilton coming in for a three-hour pitstop to recharge his Tesla?
 
So what lies behind this bunch of fairy stories? The BBC are quite open about it:
 
‘Sport 2050 was conceived and created with the ambition of making the abstract future impacts of climate change more real for people by looking at how it might impact on their everyday lives. Sport – one of the most universally relatable areas of life across the globe that raises passions like no other – presents an ideal opportunity to do this.
 
‘The second thought behind the project was the ability of sport to help inform readers who may not otherwise have engaged with the science of, or news around, climate change. The science presented is therefore only designed to be of an introductory level and we have tried to link to and include some more in-depth reporting and articles for those who are interested.’

Translation – ‘We don’t think you stupid people have taken in our propaganda well enough yet, so we’re going to try another approach – scare you into thinking the sports that you love are all over unless you go completely green.’

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.

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