Here’s a political conundrum: why aren’t Opposition parties doing better in the opinion polls?
National’s leadership has settled in, and it’s fair to say support for the Nats has increased since Christopher Luxon replaced Judith Collins. But the gains have been at the expense of ACT.
And together, the two parties are not polling well enough to form a government on their own.
It will be worth watching to see if ACT does better after holding an upbeat conference last weekend, oozing confidence levels which party leader David Seymour might not have recognised just five or so years ago.
But meanwhile it might take only the suggestion of a success or two for the government to turn around the slump in its fortunes.
So far there is no sign of that turnaround.
A government which began with a show of capability, if not in a blaze of glory, is now finding that almost everything it touches fades into ashes so quickly that there is nothing, or very little, to see.
Ministers are exceptionally good with announcements but not with achievements. Instead of improved general wellbeing, we have raging inflation, soaring food prices, and rising mortgage rates.
The specific problems which Labour set out to resolve – child poverty, housing shortages, better education – have worsened.
While New Zealanders on the home front have been struggling with falling living standards, the country is losing some of its best and brightest who are making the most of opportunities to do better in other countries.
This week Police Minister Chris Hipkins made a song and dance about a long-overdue crackdown on gangs. But let’s not forget that Labour had rebuffed calls for action earlier because its position on crime and punishment is less punitive than that of National and ACT.
Hipkins claims the new measures will “make a difference” but many voters are likely to disagree, complaining they don’t go far enough.
Those with a more stringent position on law and order won’t forget the reports about government money reaching the pockets of some gang leaders.
This week the New Zealand Herald reported that Housing Minister Megan Woods has been warned not to grant any future budget bids to the state housing agency, Kainga Ora, for a while because of concerns about its debt levels.
Spiralling construction costs have led to a debt blowout, raising concerns that the government will be unable to repay completely the increase in debt over the next 60 years.
Point of Order suspects an incoming government would find similar problems scattered throughout government spheres of action. The Ardern government seems to think throwing money around will convince people it has the answers to every problem. But the mounting debt that is building up will leave a serious fiscal-policy challenge for its successor.
The road toll is another measure of an issue where government performance has fallen far short of what it promised.
Oliver Hartwich, executive director of the New Zealand Initiative, has recalled how the depressingly high road toll prompted the government to embark on a “Road to Zero” campaign. Its ambitious goal: no more deaths or serious injuries by 2050.
The promotional awareness campaign will cost $15 million over three years. But since 2018 the New Zealand Transport Authority has installed less than a fifth of the road-safety barriers due by 2024.
Yet on June 2021, NZTA employed about 2,081 staff, a substantial increase in the 1,372 employed only four years earlier.
Not much of the staff growth at NZTA took place on the frontline. “Human Resources” staff numbers have climbed from 57 to 122 full-time equivalents; managers from 214 to 456; accountants from 44 to 66; admin staff from 307 to 485; and communications officers from 32 to 88.
None of those extra staff will ever install a bollard, put up a road sign, or fix a pothole.
Of course, the Transport Minister has taken great delight (and much of the kudos) in opening new expressways like Transmission Gully or the Waikato Expressway. These were initiated by previous governments. He has yet to turn the sod on a similar project.
His speciality (and focus) is light rail, of course, but ballooning costs raise serious doubts about projects to develop those transport modes being built any time soon.
Experienced political leaders who have seen before how an incoming government must deal with the wreckage left by its predecessor know it is no easy task. Point of Order recalls – for example – Labour’s Roger Douglas and National’s Jim Bolger perturbation on opening the books after taking office and spending long days and nights shaping budgetary programmes to get the public finances back in shape. It’s not a job for the faint-hearted.
But meanwhile it might take only the suggestion of a success or two for the government to turn around the slump in its fortunes.
So far there is no sign of that turnaround.
A government which began with a show of capability, if not in a blaze of glory, is now finding that almost everything it touches fades into ashes so quickly that there is nothing, or very little, to see.
Ministers are exceptionally good with announcements but not with achievements. Instead of improved general wellbeing, we have raging inflation, soaring food prices, and rising mortgage rates.
The specific problems which Labour set out to resolve – child poverty, housing shortages, better education – have worsened.
While New Zealanders on the home front have been struggling with falling living standards, the country is losing some of its best and brightest who are making the most of opportunities to do better in other countries.
This week Police Minister Chris Hipkins made a song and dance about a long-overdue crackdown on gangs. But let’s not forget that Labour had rebuffed calls for action earlier because its position on crime and punishment is less punitive than that of National and ACT.
Hipkins claims the new measures will “make a difference” but many voters are likely to disagree, complaining they don’t go far enough.
Those with a more stringent position on law and order won’t forget the reports about government money reaching the pockets of some gang leaders.
This week the New Zealand Herald reported that Housing Minister Megan Woods has been warned not to grant any future budget bids to the state housing agency, Kainga Ora, for a while because of concerns about its debt levels.
Spiralling construction costs have led to a debt blowout, raising concerns that the government will be unable to repay completely the increase in debt over the next 60 years.
Point of Order suspects an incoming government would find similar problems scattered throughout government spheres of action. The Ardern government seems to think throwing money around will convince people it has the answers to every problem. But the mounting debt that is building up will leave a serious fiscal-policy challenge for its successor.
The road toll is another measure of an issue where government performance has fallen far short of what it promised.
Oliver Hartwich, executive director of the New Zealand Initiative, has recalled how the depressingly high road toll prompted the government to embark on a “Road to Zero” campaign. Its ambitious goal: no more deaths or serious injuries by 2050.
The promotional awareness campaign will cost $15 million over three years. But since 2018 the New Zealand Transport Authority has installed less than a fifth of the road-safety barriers due by 2024.
Yet on June 2021, NZTA employed about 2,081 staff, a substantial increase in the 1,372 employed only four years earlier.
Not much of the staff growth at NZTA took place on the frontline. “Human Resources” staff numbers have climbed from 57 to 122 full-time equivalents; managers from 214 to 456; accountants from 44 to 66; admin staff from 307 to 485; and communications officers from 32 to 88.
None of those extra staff will ever install a bollard, put up a road sign, or fix a pothole.
Of course, the Transport Minister has taken great delight (and much of the kudos) in opening new expressways like Transmission Gully or the Waikato Expressway. These were initiated by previous governments. He has yet to turn the sod on a similar project.
His speciality (and focus) is light rail, of course, but ballooning costs raise serious doubts about projects to develop those transport modes being built any time soon.
Experienced political leaders who have seen before how an incoming government must deal with the wreckage left by its predecessor know it is no easy task. Point of Order recalls – for example – Labour’s Roger Douglas and National’s Jim Bolger perturbation on opening the books after taking office and spending long days and nights shaping budgetary programmes to get the public finances back in shape. It’s not a job for the faint-hearted.
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
2 comments:
"the two parties are not polling well enough to form a government on their own."
Not according to successive Roy Morgan polls. Oh, that's right. These no longer get reported by our MSM because they give the "wrong" result.
If anyone wanted a great example of media bias that's it right there!
i recall the rule of thumb for corporate staffing was 1 HR + 1 admin staff per 50-100 employees and 1 communications staff per 500 employees. have things changed so much in the last decade? where is all the money for paying these 'overheads'? if companies really have so much in their vault, why not pay better wages and resolve the real staffing crisis???
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