Ross Meurant: Political Prediction

Rt Hon Winston Peters, will lead NZ First to a List Party re-entry to New Zealand parliament next General Elections.  And he will be once again: King Maker – of the centre right majority.

The political pendulum which carried a massive base of voters deserting National under the leadership of Hon Judith Collins, to delivering an unprecedented outright victory to Labour, now gains momentum as it swings away from a government which strives to elevate one ethnic group above all others and which is exposed as incapable of economic recover initiatives to mitigate the damage it caused by excessive application of COVID controls.

Trouble is, the masses swinging through the political atmosphere, are increasingly unsure of where to jump off!

Christopher Luxon, in my view, emerges as one who excels in vacillation.  Whether it be how to deal with the divisive racist agenda Labour seeks to entrench before they are bowled out or how to put his stamp on internal party shenanigans.

Sam Uffindell may be one example of the latter but a more deleterious element is what I identify as an incestuous administration cabal devoid of democratic selection standards and which loiters perilously close to “wokeness”.

Rt Hon Sir David Carter seems to me to have been a casualty of this cabal.

This lack of unequivocal commitment clearly stated intentions by National, has been a major contributor to the rise of ACT’s David Seymour – who does appear to have recognised that Maori separatism is now a priority political issue.

Fortunately for Mr Seymour, he has as his second in command a very capable female in Brooke van Velden, because gaining votes and poll elevation only as a result of a persistently underperforming National party, is unlikely to be cementing in an entrenched loyal following.

Which leaves open the field of play for Winston Peters.   

A large catchment of undecided vote is there for the taking. Disgruntled Labour voters who won’t vote National or Green and an equally large catchment of traditional conservative National voters, who are hostile on the Maorification of New Zealand and who remember Roger Douglas.

Like him or loath him, Winston is a survivor and achieves this outcome largely on the strength of his indomitable personality. His greatest weakness in this race however, in my view, is Shane Jones. 

If Shane runs as a candidate for the Northern Maori constituency (which I reckon he would have a reasonable chance of securing), a pro Maori stance Jones would have to adopt (and which he did immediately prior to the last election  which in turn saw him crash from what appeared to me to be a strong lead), immediately compromises the integrity of anything Winston might be saying to the conservative white voter, about equality for all before the law – irrespective of race, creed, colour, religion, beliefs.

A recent discussion I had with an original instigator of NZ First (but who assures me is no longer involved), emphatically insisted that NZ First is a List only party.  If this person is right, and history tends to support this view, Winston might do well to take heed of this very astute political strategist.

Disclosure:

I went to school with Winston.  During my time in parliament, we were mates and post my 9 years in the House I served 3 years as his primary industries adviser.  The fishing industry component of that role culminating in the Scamp Affair, saw Winston and me – part company.  We are no longer mates.  I will vote ACT on the appeal of Brooke van Velden as a rising star.

Ross Meurant, graduate in politics both at university and as a Member of Parliament; formerly police inspector in charge of Auckland spies & V.I.P. security; currently Honorary Consul for an African state, Trustee and CEO of Russian owned commercial assets in New Zealand and has international business interest.