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Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Mike Hosking: Petrol subsidy saga a lesson in simple economics and politics


The trouble the Government have got themselves into with the petrol subsidy is that although we love it, we hate it.

Are we grateful? No, we aren't. Is petrol too high? Yes it is. Is the grocery bill too high? Yes it is. Is the cost of living too high? Yes it is.

So we'll take it, but we won't thank you for it. But if you take it away, just wait for the moaning.

To be fair to the Government, an ongoing petrol cut is better than that cost of living shambles they handed out over three months that got them nothing but grief. Mainly because it's material, more material than the $116 payments appeared to be.

You buy petrol often and in your subconscious you know it’s a bit cheaper than it might have been, that’s good. You get a cheque for $116, what's that buy?

And the $116 only goes to a certain few, but the petrol cut goes to anyone who buys petrol.

But the classic economic and political lesson is once you create artificiality, you can never take it back. Or not at least without a fight and disappointment.

Because something that is free isn't free, it's paid for somewhere, and one day that bill comes due.

And also once it's free, its value diminishes almost instantly. It's like giving your kids money for their birthday. You give them $20 and they can't believe their luck. Next year you give them $10 and they wonder why it isn't $20. Or if you give them $25 the year after they can't believe it isn't $30.

It's a hiding to nowhere.


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Sadly, the Government never thought any of that through.

Ironically, not long after the money was announced oil fell anyway and the price has never been as high as it was, hence the subsidy was never really needed.

But by that that time it was too late.

It's still too late. Michael Wood said it's over in January, and then he says it might not be and now the Prime Minister muses aloud about conditions, timings, and situations.

Let me tell you about the timing and situation. Because they never laid the groundwork, set the rules, or created the expectations, they are stuck. They are trapped and they can't take it back.

Not because they don’t want to or shouldn't, but because they never thought through the consequences.

It's Economics and Politics 101.

Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings.

1 comment:

Hugh Jorgan said...

As Milton Friedman said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program."

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