In this newsletter:
1) Scientists reveal Greenland lush ecosystem 10-17°Celsius warmer than today
CNN, 7 December 2022
2) Biden’s green subsidies may drive Europe closer to China, warns EU commissioner
Financial Times, 30 December 2022
3) Biden administration signals US tax credits will subsidise foreign carmakers
Bloomberg News, 30 December 2022
CNN, 7 December 2022
2) Biden’s green subsidies may drive Europe closer to China, warns EU commissioner
Financial Times, 30 December 2022
3) Biden administration signals US tax credits will subsidise foreign carmakers
Bloomberg News, 30 December 2022
4) Chinese battery makers set to dominate Europe’s car industry
Financial Times, 6 December 2022
Financial Times, 6 December 2022
5) Twitter users applaud, fume as Musk declares Twitter will 'follow the science,' promote 'questioning'
Fox News, 29 December 2022
6) Green Britain: Energy prices are 'unlikely to return to normal' until next decade
Daily Mail, 30 December 2022
7) UK ramps up outreach to develop Small Nuclear Reactor fleet
Energy News-Record, 30 December 2022
Fox News, 29 December 2022
6) Green Britain: Energy prices are 'unlikely to return to normal' until next decade
Daily Mail, 30 December 2022
7) UK ramps up outreach to develop Small Nuclear Reactor fleet
Energy News-Record, 30 December 2022
8) Andrew Orlowski: The energy crisis risks dooming the electric car
9) Judith Curry: The yin and yang of climate science
Climate Etc., 29 December 2022
Climate Etc., 29 December 2022
10) Susan Crockford: W. Hudson Bay polar bear population decline stories are unethical and ignore critical caveats
Polar Bear Science, 28 December 2022
Polar Bear Science, 28 December 2022
Full details:
1) Scientists reveal Greenland lush ecosystem 10-17°Celsius warmer than today
CNN, 7 December 2022
A 2 million-year-old DNA samples revealed the now largely lifeless polar region was once home to rich plant and animal life — including elephant-like mammals known as mastodons, reindeer, hares, lemmings, geese, birch trees and poplars -- when temperatures were between 10 to 17 degrees Celsius warmer than Greenland is today.
An artist's reconstruction of what the Kap København Formation in northern Greenland might have looked like 2 million years ago. Beth Zaiken
The 2 million-year-old DNA samples revealed the now largely lifeless polar region was once home to rich plant and animal life — including elephant-like mammals known as mastodons, reindeer, hares, lemmings, geese, birch trees and poplars, according to new research published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.
The mix of temperate and Arctic trees and animals suggested a previously unknown type of ecosystem that has no modern equivalent — one that could act as a genetic road map for how different species might adapt to a warmer climate, the researchers found.
The finding is the work of scientists in Denmark who were able to detect and retrieve environmental DNA — genetic material shed into the environment by all living organisms — in tiny amounts of sediment taken from the København Formation, in the mouth of a fjord in the Arctic Ocean in Greenland’s northernmost point, during a 2006 expedition. (Greenland is an autonomous country within Denmark.)
They then compared the DNA fragments with existing libraries of DNA collected from both extinct and living animals, plants and microorganisms. The genetic material revealed dozens of other plants and creatures that had not been previously detected at the site based on what’s known from fossils and pollen records.
“The first thing that blew our mind when we’re looking at this data is obviously this mastodon and the presence of it that far north, which is quite far north of what we knew as its natural range,” said study coauthor Mikkel Pedersen, an assistant professor at the University of Copenhagen’s Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, at a news conference.
It smashes the previous record for the world’s oldest DNA, set by research published last year on genetic material extracted from the tooth of a mammoth that roamed the Siberian Steppe more than a million years ago, as well as the previous record for DNA from sediment.
Lush ecosystem
While DNA from animal bones or teeth can shed light on an individual species, environmental DNA enabled scientists to build a picture of a whole ecosystem, said professor Eske Willerslev, a fellow of St John’s College at the University of Cambridge and director of the Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre. In this case, the ecological community researchers reconstructed existed when temperatures would have between 10 to 17 degrees Celsius warmer than Greenland is today.
“Only a few plant and animals fossils have been found in the region. It was super exciting when we recovered the DNA (to see) that very, very different ecosystem. People had known from macrofossils that there had been trees, some kind of forest up there, but the DNA allowed us to identify many more taxa (types of living organisms),” said Willerslev, who led the research.
Researchers were surprised to find that cedars similar to those found in British Columbia today would have once grown in the Arctic alongside species like larch, which now grow in the northernmost reaches of the planet. They found no DNA from carnivores but believe predators — such as bears, wolves or even saber-toothed tigers — must have been present in the ecosystem.
CNN, 7 December 2022
A 2 million-year-old DNA samples revealed the now largely lifeless polar region was once home to rich plant and animal life — including elephant-like mammals known as mastodons, reindeer, hares, lemmings, geese, birch trees and poplars -- when temperatures were between 10 to 17 degrees Celsius warmer than Greenland is today.
An artist's reconstruction of what the Kap København Formation in northern Greenland might have looked like 2 million years ago. Beth Zaiken
The 2 million-year-old DNA samples revealed the now largely lifeless polar region was once home to rich plant and animal life — including elephant-like mammals known as mastodons, reindeer, hares, lemmings, geese, birch trees and poplars, according to new research published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.
The mix of temperate and Arctic trees and animals suggested a previously unknown type of ecosystem that has no modern equivalent — one that could act as a genetic road map for how different species might adapt to a warmer climate, the researchers found.
The finding is the work of scientists in Denmark who were able to detect and retrieve environmental DNA — genetic material shed into the environment by all living organisms — in tiny amounts of sediment taken from the København Formation, in the mouth of a fjord in the Arctic Ocean in Greenland’s northernmost point, during a 2006 expedition. (Greenland is an autonomous country within Denmark.)
They then compared the DNA fragments with existing libraries of DNA collected from both extinct and living animals, plants and microorganisms. The genetic material revealed dozens of other plants and creatures that had not been previously detected at the site based on what’s known from fossils and pollen records.
“The first thing that blew our mind when we’re looking at this data is obviously this mastodon and the presence of it that far north, which is quite far north of what we knew as its natural range,” said study coauthor Mikkel Pedersen, an assistant professor at the University of Copenhagen’s Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, at a news conference.
It smashes the previous record for the world’s oldest DNA, set by research published last year on genetic material extracted from the tooth of a mammoth that roamed the Siberian Steppe more than a million years ago, as well as the previous record for DNA from sediment.
Lush ecosystem
While DNA from animal bones or teeth can shed light on an individual species, environmental DNA enabled scientists to build a picture of a whole ecosystem, said professor Eske Willerslev, a fellow of St John’s College at the University of Cambridge and director of the Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre. In this case, the ecological community researchers reconstructed existed when temperatures would have between 10 to 17 degrees Celsius warmer than Greenland is today.
“Only a few plant and animals fossils have been found in the region. It was super exciting when we recovered the DNA (to see) that very, very different ecosystem. People had known from macrofossils that there had been trees, some kind of forest up there, but the DNA allowed us to identify many more taxa (types of living organisms),” said Willerslev, who led the research.
Researchers were surprised to find that cedars similar to those found in British Columbia today would have once grown in the Arctic alongside species like larch, which now grow in the northernmost reaches of the planet. They found no DNA from carnivores but believe predators — such as bears, wolves or even saber-toothed tigers — must have been present in the ecosystem.
Love Dalen, a professor at the Centre for Palaeogenetics at Stockholm University, who worked on the mammoth tooth DNA research but wasn’t involved in this study, said the groundbreaking finding really “pushed the envelope” for the field of ancient DNA.
“This is a truly amazing paper!” he said via email. “It can tell us about the composition of ecosystems at different points in time, which is really important to understand how past changes in climate affected species-level biodiversity. This is something that animal DNA cannot do.”
“Also, the findings that several temperate species (such as relatives of spruce and mastodon) lived at such high latitudes are exceptionally interesting,” he added.
Genetic road map for climate change?
Willerslev said the 16-year study was the longest project of its kind he and most of his team of researchers had ever been involved in.
Extracting the fragments of genetic code from the sediment took a great deal of scientific detective work and several painstaking attempts — after the team established for the first time that DNA was hidden in clay and quartz in the sediment and could be detached from it. The fact that the DNA had binded itself to mineral surfaces was likely why it survived for so long, the researchers said.
“We revisited these samples and we failed and we failed. They got the name in the lab the ‘curse of the København Formation,’” Willerslev said.
Further study of environmental DNA from this time period could help scientists understand how various organisms might adapt to climate change.
“It’s a climate that we expect to face on Earth due to global warming and it gives us some idea of how nature will respond to increasing temperatures,” he explained.
“If we manage to read this road map correctly, it really contains the key to how organisms can (adapt) and how can we help organisms adapt to a very fast changing climate.”
2) Biden’s green subsidies may drive Europe closer to China, warns EU commissioner
Financial Times, 30 December 2022
America’s massive green subsidies plan risks backfiring by driving European companies closer to China, a top EU policymaker warned as he said that talks with the Biden administration were unlikely to solve all the issues Europe had with the legislation.
Valdis Dombrovskis, EU trade commissioner, said that while the $369bn Inflation Reduction Act was in part an attempt by the US to curb its reliance on China, it could have the opposite effect in Europe by making “overtures and propositions” from Beijing more interesting. This, he said, “may work against the stated aim of the Inflation Reduction Act”.
Dombrovskis spoke before the release of guidance by Washington on Thursday indicating that EU companies could benefit from a tax credit scheme for commercial clean vehicles — a move Brussels sees as a welcome first step but which does not alleviate all its concerns.
The US legislation contained in a $369bn package involves subsidies and tax credits for green technologies and manufacturing, including electric vehicles, batteries and hydrogen. It attempts to bolster US investment in such sectors while reducing US reliance on Chinese products and knowhow.
The European Commission has warned that the act discriminates against EU-based companies and threatens the bloc’s industrial base. It has formed a task force with the White House in a bid to resolve the dispute.
While there are signs of movement by the Biden administration in the key areas of electric vehicles and batteries, this would only alleviate some of the issues, Dombrovskis said in an interview. “If there are those outcomes, it would solve part of our problems, not all of our problems,” he said, stressing that the IRA involves a “much broader” range of sectors.
“When this work is over we will need to take stock of where we are and see what our options are . . . We would need to look at further elements [on] how to rebalance the playing field.”
Full story
3) Biden administration signals US tax credits will subsidise foreign carmakers
Bloomberg News, 30 December 2022
The US Treasury Department signaled some imported cars will qualify for electric-vehicle tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, a move that could assuage Asian and European allies’ concerns about the sweeping climate legislation.
The Treasury sketched out its interpretation of content requirements for electric-vehicle tax credits Thursday, while delaying final rules until March so officials have more time to address the complexities of the law.
In a list of frequently asked questions, Treasury officials indicated that imported EVs can qualify for a consumer tax credit of up to $7,500 through a commercial-vehicle clause in the law by leasing them. That ruling will help foreign carmakers like Hyundai Motor Co., which has complained that their electric models were excluded from the subsidy because they don’t currently manufacture them in North America.
Making leased cars eligible as commercial vehicles triggered an immediate and angry response from West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.
Interpretation ‘inconsistent’
In a statement Thursday, Manchin criticized the Treasury’s interpretation and urged officials to pause implementation of both the commercial and consumer electric-vehicle tax credits until the department issued “the appropriate guidance.”
Manchin said the Treasury’s interpretation “bends to the desires of the companies looking for loopholes and is clearly inconsistent with the intent of the law.”
A Treasury official said the department’s ruling didn’t seek to accommodate any parties with an interest in the law.
“Whether a taxpayer can claim the qualified commercial clean-vehicle credit in its business depends on who is the owner of the vehicle for federal income-tax purposes,” the department said in the FAQ issued Thursday. “Based on longstanding tax principles, the determination whether a transaction constitutes a sale or a lease of a vehicle for tax purposes is a question of fact.”
New legislation
Manchin, who chairs the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, said he will introduce legislation when Congress returns next year that “further clarifies the original intent of the law and prevents this dangerous interpretation from Treasury from moving forward.”
The West Virginia senator, who provided Democrats a pivotal vote on the legislation back in August, fought to include new limits on who could claim the tax credits, which he previously dismissed as “ludicrous.” Manchin argued that without tough rules mandating manufacturing in the US and rules on content, the act would subsidize production in China and by other US adversaries.
The legislation, which provided a record $370 billion in spending to combat climate change, passed on a party-line vote.
For vehicles to qualify for the full $7,500 consumer tax credit, Manchin’s content rules also require that 40% of raw materials in an EV battery be extracted and processed in countries that have a free-trade agreement with the US, and 50% of battery components must be made in North America, with the percentages increasing over time.
Hyundai and the Korean government aggressively lobbied the Biden administration to take a broader interpretation of the law’s commerical-vehicle clause, which allows vehicles to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit without meeting the strict content requirements on batteries and critical minerals that apply to vehicles sold at retail.
A Hyundai spokesman said the company is still reviewing the latest information released by the Treasury.
‘No surprise’
Manchin has little grounds to complain about the Treasury’s reading of the law with regard to leased cars, said James Lucier, managing director of research firm Capital Alpha Partners LLC.
“This is what happens when legislation does not go through regular order and you don’t have a committee looking at all the provisions,” he said.
The bill was largely crafted behind closed doors between Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
More time is needed to unpack Treasury’s read of the commercial-vehicle clause, said Joe Britton, head of the Zero Emission Transportation Association, a Washington trade group representing EV manufacturers.
“Some people were very excited about the potential cracked-open door,” he said by phone. “If they’re trying to do it just to sell to average retail consumers, that’s where it gets a little more difficult to defend.”
Treasury officials also outlined the process for carmakers to comply with the act’s content requirements on critical minerals and battery components. These may limit automakers’ eligibility for the full tax credit, but only once they go into effect in March.
Until then, existing rules that grant tax credits based on the size of an EV battery will apply. Cars will still be required to be assembled in North America to qualify, and be subject to price and income thresholds as prescribed by the act, a Treasury official said.
That means automakers like General Motors Co. and Tesla Inc., which had reached a 200,000-unit cap on eligible EV sales under previous IRS rules, could enjoy an extension of the full credit on vehicles assembled in North America come Jan. 1 — until final rules are proposed in March.
GM and Tesla didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Immediate benefit
Also watching closely are governments whose EV industries appear locked out of some subsidies because they only apply to producers in North America.
The European Commission said Thursday’s move means the bloc’s companies “will be able to immediately benefit.” Further discussions are ongoing in the EU-US Inflation Reduction Act Task Force, it said in a statement.
European Union leaders — including French President Emmanuel Macron during a December visit to the White House — have complained that the legislation will damage EU industry already suffering from high energy costs due partly to the war in Ukraine.
Other critics include South Korea — home to the Hyundai and Kia Corp. car brands — as well as Argentina, the world’s fastest-growing producer of lithium, a critical battery material.
Full story
“This is a truly amazing paper!” he said via email. “It can tell us about the composition of ecosystems at different points in time, which is really important to understand how past changes in climate affected species-level biodiversity. This is something that animal DNA cannot do.”
“Also, the findings that several temperate species (such as relatives of spruce and mastodon) lived at such high latitudes are exceptionally interesting,” he added.
Genetic road map for climate change?
Willerslev said the 16-year study was the longest project of its kind he and most of his team of researchers had ever been involved in.
Extracting the fragments of genetic code from the sediment took a great deal of scientific detective work and several painstaking attempts — after the team established for the first time that DNA was hidden in clay and quartz in the sediment and could be detached from it. The fact that the DNA had binded itself to mineral surfaces was likely why it survived for so long, the researchers said.
“We revisited these samples and we failed and we failed. They got the name in the lab the ‘curse of the København Formation,’” Willerslev said.
Further study of environmental DNA from this time period could help scientists understand how various organisms might adapt to climate change.
“It’s a climate that we expect to face on Earth due to global warming and it gives us some idea of how nature will respond to increasing temperatures,” he explained.
“If we manage to read this road map correctly, it really contains the key to how organisms can (adapt) and how can we help organisms adapt to a very fast changing climate.”
2) Biden’s green subsidies may drive Europe closer to China, warns EU commissioner
Financial Times, 30 December 2022
America’s massive green subsidies plan risks backfiring by driving European companies closer to China, a top EU policymaker warned as he said that talks with the Biden administration were unlikely to solve all the issues Europe had with the legislation.
Valdis Dombrovskis, EU trade commissioner, said that while the $369bn Inflation Reduction Act was in part an attempt by the US to curb its reliance on China, it could have the opposite effect in Europe by making “overtures and propositions” from Beijing more interesting. This, he said, “may work against the stated aim of the Inflation Reduction Act”.
Dombrovskis spoke before the release of guidance by Washington on Thursday indicating that EU companies could benefit from a tax credit scheme for commercial clean vehicles — a move Brussels sees as a welcome first step but which does not alleviate all its concerns.
The US legislation contained in a $369bn package involves subsidies and tax credits for green technologies and manufacturing, including electric vehicles, batteries and hydrogen. It attempts to bolster US investment in such sectors while reducing US reliance on Chinese products and knowhow.
The European Commission has warned that the act discriminates against EU-based companies and threatens the bloc’s industrial base. It has formed a task force with the White House in a bid to resolve the dispute.
While there are signs of movement by the Biden administration in the key areas of electric vehicles and batteries, this would only alleviate some of the issues, Dombrovskis said in an interview. “If there are those outcomes, it would solve part of our problems, not all of our problems,” he said, stressing that the IRA involves a “much broader” range of sectors.
“When this work is over we will need to take stock of where we are and see what our options are . . . We would need to look at further elements [on] how to rebalance the playing field.”
Full story
3) Biden administration signals US tax credits will subsidise foreign carmakers
Bloomberg News, 30 December 2022
The US Treasury Department signaled some imported cars will qualify for electric-vehicle tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, a move that could assuage Asian and European allies’ concerns about the sweeping climate legislation.
The Treasury sketched out its interpretation of content requirements for electric-vehicle tax credits Thursday, while delaying final rules until March so officials have more time to address the complexities of the law.
In a list of frequently asked questions, Treasury officials indicated that imported EVs can qualify for a consumer tax credit of up to $7,500 through a commercial-vehicle clause in the law by leasing them. That ruling will help foreign carmakers like Hyundai Motor Co., which has complained that their electric models were excluded from the subsidy because they don’t currently manufacture them in North America.
Making leased cars eligible as commercial vehicles triggered an immediate and angry response from West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.
Interpretation ‘inconsistent’
In a statement Thursday, Manchin criticized the Treasury’s interpretation and urged officials to pause implementation of both the commercial and consumer electric-vehicle tax credits until the department issued “the appropriate guidance.”
Manchin said the Treasury’s interpretation “bends to the desires of the companies looking for loopholes and is clearly inconsistent with the intent of the law.”
A Treasury official said the department’s ruling didn’t seek to accommodate any parties with an interest in the law.
“Whether a taxpayer can claim the qualified commercial clean-vehicle credit in its business depends on who is the owner of the vehicle for federal income-tax purposes,” the department said in the FAQ issued Thursday. “Based on longstanding tax principles, the determination whether a transaction constitutes a sale or a lease of a vehicle for tax purposes is a question of fact.”
New legislation
Manchin, who chairs the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, said he will introduce legislation when Congress returns next year that “further clarifies the original intent of the law and prevents this dangerous interpretation from Treasury from moving forward.”
The West Virginia senator, who provided Democrats a pivotal vote on the legislation back in August, fought to include new limits on who could claim the tax credits, which he previously dismissed as “ludicrous.” Manchin argued that without tough rules mandating manufacturing in the US and rules on content, the act would subsidize production in China and by other US adversaries.
The legislation, which provided a record $370 billion in spending to combat climate change, passed on a party-line vote.
For vehicles to qualify for the full $7,500 consumer tax credit, Manchin’s content rules also require that 40% of raw materials in an EV battery be extracted and processed in countries that have a free-trade agreement with the US, and 50% of battery components must be made in North America, with the percentages increasing over time.
Hyundai and the Korean government aggressively lobbied the Biden administration to take a broader interpretation of the law’s commerical-vehicle clause, which allows vehicles to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit without meeting the strict content requirements on batteries and critical minerals that apply to vehicles sold at retail.
A Hyundai spokesman said the company is still reviewing the latest information released by the Treasury.
‘No surprise’
Manchin has little grounds to complain about the Treasury’s reading of the law with regard to leased cars, said James Lucier, managing director of research firm Capital Alpha Partners LLC.
“This is what happens when legislation does not go through regular order and you don’t have a committee looking at all the provisions,” he said.
The bill was largely crafted behind closed doors between Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
More time is needed to unpack Treasury’s read of the commercial-vehicle clause, said Joe Britton, head of the Zero Emission Transportation Association, a Washington trade group representing EV manufacturers.
“Some people were very excited about the potential cracked-open door,” he said by phone. “If they’re trying to do it just to sell to average retail consumers, that’s where it gets a little more difficult to defend.”
Treasury officials also outlined the process for carmakers to comply with the act’s content requirements on critical minerals and battery components. These may limit automakers’ eligibility for the full tax credit, but only once they go into effect in March.
Until then, existing rules that grant tax credits based on the size of an EV battery will apply. Cars will still be required to be assembled in North America to qualify, and be subject to price and income thresholds as prescribed by the act, a Treasury official said.
That means automakers like General Motors Co. and Tesla Inc., which had reached a 200,000-unit cap on eligible EV sales under previous IRS rules, could enjoy an extension of the full credit on vehicles assembled in North America come Jan. 1 — until final rules are proposed in March.
GM and Tesla didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Immediate benefit
Also watching closely are governments whose EV industries appear locked out of some subsidies because they only apply to producers in North America.
The European Commission said Thursday’s move means the bloc’s companies “will be able to immediately benefit.” Further discussions are ongoing in the EU-US Inflation Reduction Act Task Force, it said in a statement.
European Union leaders — including French President Emmanuel Macron during a December visit to the White House — have complained that the legislation will damage EU industry already suffering from high energy costs due partly to the war in Ukraine.
Other critics include South Korea — home to the Hyundai and Kia Corp. car brands — as well as Argentina, the world’s fastest-growing producer of lithium, a critical battery material.
Full story
4) Chinese battery makers set to dominate Europe’s car industry
Financial Times, 6 December 2022
For decades, Europe has been a global hub of combustion engine production but as the industry shifts to electric vehicles, China is turning itself into the battery workshop of the world.
By 2031 it is projected to have more production capacity in Europe, the second biggest market for EVs, than any other country, according to an analysis of public announcements by data provider Benchmark Minerals. Industry executives and policymakers are worried.
While China was relatively late to develop a car industry that can compete with Europe and the US on engine technology, the shift to electric gives it the chance to overtake traditional automotive heartlands.
Some 40 per cent of the value of an electric vehicle is in its battery, so the country that supplies that battery wins a huge chunk of the market. “The new world, the electric vehicle world, will be defined clearly by battery costs,” said Thomas Schmall, head of technology at Volkswagen.
According to Benchmark Minerals, China will have 322 gigawatt hours of production capacity in Europe by 2031, with South Korea the second largest at 192GWh, followed by France and Sweden.
The US is fifth, thanks to Tesla’s plant in Berlin, followed by Germany and Norway. The UK is eighth with just 20GWh.
In addition to battery production that has already been announced, a slew of Chinese brands, from BYD to Great Wall and Nio, plan significant sales growth in Europe. This will, in time, mean vehicle assembly and even more battery plants that are also likely to use Chinese technology.
Schmall hopes this will spur innovation in Europe. “For sure, it’s a risk,” he said. “But it’s also an opportunity”.
VW is foremost among European manufacturers trying to expand their battery capacity and reduce their reliance on external suppliers.
It wants to build five factories in Europe, as well as one in North America. But in the meantime it has a supply deal with China’s CATL, the world’s largest battery maker.
“Our start block is 100 metres behind them [the Chinese],” Schmall told the Financial Times. “We need to run faster, we need a higher speed level than them, [which is hard] if you see how fast the Chinese guys are moving.”
China’s growing presence in Europe’s auto industry is a result of deals to supply car manufacturers in the region, where electrification is being driven by ambitious decarbonisation plans that aim to end the sale of combustion engine vehicles by 2035.
CATL is a supplier to VW and Mercedes-Benz, while BYD — which also makes its own batteries — has a deal with Stellantis. Envision AESC, a battery group backed by China’s Envision, supplies Nissan in the UK and may build more plants in France and Spain.
Nuria Gisbert Trejo, director-general of CIC Energigune, a Spanish energy storage research institute, thinks Chinese investment in battery factories in Europe is a problem because they reduce Europe’s independence and autonomy in a key sector for the future.
Full story
Financial Times, 6 December 2022
For decades, Europe has been a global hub of combustion engine production but as the industry shifts to electric vehicles, China is turning itself into the battery workshop of the world.
By 2031 it is projected to have more production capacity in Europe, the second biggest market for EVs, than any other country, according to an analysis of public announcements by data provider Benchmark Minerals. Industry executives and policymakers are worried.
While China was relatively late to develop a car industry that can compete with Europe and the US on engine technology, the shift to electric gives it the chance to overtake traditional automotive heartlands.
Some 40 per cent of the value of an electric vehicle is in its battery, so the country that supplies that battery wins a huge chunk of the market. “The new world, the electric vehicle world, will be defined clearly by battery costs,” said Thomas Schmall, head of technology at Volkswagen.
According to Benchmark Minerals, China will have 322 gigawatt hours of production capacity in Europe by 2031, with South Korea the second largest at 192GWh, followed by France and Sweden.
The US is fifth, thanks to Tesla’s plant in Berlin, followed by Germany and Norway. The UK is eighth with just 20GWh.
In addition to battery production that has already been announced, a slew of Chinese brands, from BYD to Great Wall and Nio, plan significant sales growth in Europe. This will, in time, mean vehicle assembly and even more battery plants that are also likely to use Chinese technology.
Schmall hopes this will spur innovation in Europe. “For sure, it’s a risk,” he said. “But it’s also an opportunity”.
VW is foremost among European manufacturers trying to expand their battery capacity and reduce their reliance on external suppliers.
It wants to build five factories in Europe, as well as one in North America. But in the meantime it has a supply deal with China’s CATL, the world’s largest battery maker.
“Our start block is 100 metres behind them [the Chinese],” Schmall told the Financial Times. “We need to run faster, we need a higher speed level than them, [which is hard] if you see how fast the Chinese guys are moving.”
China’s growing presence in Europe’s auto industry is a result of deals to supply car manufacturers in the region, where electrification is being driven by ambitious decarbonisation plans that aim to end the sale of combustion engine vehicles by 2035.
CATL is a supplier to VW and Mercedes-Benz, while BYD — which also makes its own batteries — has a deal with Stellantis. Envision AESC, a battery group backed by China’s Envision, supplies Nissan in the UK and may build more plants in France and Spain.
Nuria Gisbert Trejo, director-general of CIC Energigune, a Spanish energy storage research institute, thinks Chinese investment in battery factories in Europe is a problem because they reduce Europe’s independence and autonomy in a key sector for the future.
Full story
5) Twitter users applaud, fume as Musk declares Twitter will 'follow the science,' promote 'questioning'
Fox News, 29 December 2022
Current Twitter CEO Elon Musk declared Wednesday that Twitter will promote "reasoned" skepticism of scientific data.
Fox News, 29 December 2022
Current Twitter CEO Elon Musk declared Wednesday that Twitter will promote "reasoned" skepticism of scientific data.
"New Twitter policy is to follow the science, which necessarily includes reasoned questioning of the science," Musk wrote.
Many Twitter users rallied and suggested that the policy promoted actual pursuit of scientific truth.
Evolutionary behavioral scientist Gad Saad appeared to joke about the dogmatic way scientific experts were treated amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The science is anything that His Eminence Lord Fauci says it is," Saad quipped. "His Excellency is science."
Musk responded by observing, "Anyone who says that questioning them is questioning science itself cannot be regarded as a scientist."
Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton tweeted, "Bad news for transgender extremism, covid totalitarians, and climate alarmists."
Journalist David Martosko called upon followers to recognize Musk's announcement has massive implications.
"Isn't it remarkable that this is a departure from what we've seen for many years?" he asked. "I hope it also means it will be acceptable to examine who's funding science and what kind of restrictions that places is on scientists."
Eric Weinstein, mathematical physicist, economist and managing director of Thiel Capital, expressed hope that the change could be a major shift across a variety of subjects.
"This. Changes. Everything. If true," he wrote. "Is that a 1000% commitment to biologists that they can stop *lying* about biological sex, healthy reproductive development, ‘herd immunity’, genetic differences between geographically separated populations, horse paste, Wuhan Inst. GoF, etc.?"
NASA Earth Cartography and Data Visualization lead Joshua Stevens tweeted, "This is fair and reasonable. And if any scientist tells you otherwise, never let them wax poetic about curiosity and wonder ever again."
Some Twitter users appeared to condemn Musk’s statement.
New York Times contributor Wajahat Ali tweeted that Musk’s post was, "Something a really dumb person would tweet."
Journalist Ashton Pittman tweeted, "By 'reasoned questioning,' Elon Musk means batsh*t clown car conspiracy theorist drivel."
Full story
6) Green Britain: Energy prices are 'unlikely to return to normal' until next decade
Daily Mail, 30 December 2022
Energy bills misery is set to continue through 2023 amid warnings that the cost of heat and light will remain high for a decade.
Gas and electricity costs are unlikely to return to ‘normal’ until the 2030s, according to analysis from industry experts Cornwall Insight.
The average annual bill is set to rise from £2,500 to £3,000 in April, which means families and businesses will be paying more next winter.
Experts added that the total cost of the guarantee, which was introduced in October, is on course to cost as much as £47billion over 18 months.
Although this will be added to government borrowing, Cornwall Insight warned the cost will have to be paid back by taxpayers over the coming decades.
Analysts also said that surging bills can be directly linked to Vladimir’s Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the UK’s decision to stop buying Russian gas and oil.
This means Britain has become more reliant on imports of expensive gas from Norway and through shipments of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from America, the Middle East and parts of Africa.
Dr Matthew Chadwick, lead research analyst at Cornwall Insight, said: ‘Gas prices in the UK are projected to continue to be impacted as the country’s heavy reliance on imported gas sees it vulnerable to global rises.
These high prices... are unlikely to be a single winter problem, with prices forecast to be maintained in 2023-24 and unlikely to return to pre-2021 “normality” this decade.’
Highlighting factors such as the UK’s reliance on imports, he added: ‘There are risks of continued high gas prices and sustained elevated bills for consumers as we prepare for, and then move through, next winter.’
Any increase in the price of gas feeds through to electricity because it is used to fuel around 40 per of UK power stations.
Looking ahead, he said: ‘Our long-term forecasts indicate gas prices are likely to remain high up until the end of next winter, without some radical change in the buyer-seller relationship between Europe and Russia.
‘The plausible scenarios are that pipeline flows of Russian gas will be even further reduced on summer 2022 and we will also see gas prices remaining above pre-pandemic levels until at least 2030 as the market takes time to adjust to this change in supply and demand dynamics in Europe.’
Energy bills are due to surge again in April when increases in broadband, phone tariffs and council tax are also set to come into effect.
The Government’s energy price guarantee scheme, which protects households against the worst of the wholesale price increases, is due to lapse in the spring of 2024.
Full story 7) UK ramps up outreach to develop Small Nuclear Reactor fleet
Energy News-Record, 30 December 2022
The UK government's push to develop more nuclear power as a cleaner energy alternative is going beyond its November buyout of China’s interest in the planned 3.3-GW Sizewell C nuclear power plant and a new 50% stake in the firm developing the megaproject on England's east coast. The government also is seeking proposals from developer and construction sector teams for small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) technology to expedite its fossil fuel transition.
As part of an energy strategy announced last spring, the government has committed to greater SMR investment and has created a new entity, Great British Nuclear, to bring forward new projects to help meet a target of up to 24 GW of nuclear energy by 2050. This would represent up to about 25% of the UK's forecasted electricity demand, it said.
The government also has set up a new Future Nuclear Enabling Fund to financially support new nuclear projects.
The smaller plants are set to generate between 50 MW and 300 MW of power, compared with the 1,000-MW-plus output from a conventional large reactor, and also make use of modular manufacturing approaches that reduce the construction risks of bigger structures. SMRs have less complex designs, are safer to refuel and maintain, can be used to power large industrial sites or data centers, and can produce green hydrogen, experts say.
SMR Competition Builds
London-based Balfour Beatty could be one of the first UK contractors to build an SMR in Britain, announcing Dec. 19 an agreement with the British arm of Jupiter, Fla.-based nuclear energy firm Holtec International, along with Hyundai Engineering and Construction, to support engineering and construction of the U.S developer's SMR-160 pressurized light-water reactor in Britain that would generate 160 MW of power.
“The United Kingdom is at a turning point as it navigates through this energy crisis,” said Richard M. Springman, Holtec International senior vice president. “It will need multiple, complementary nuclear power plant designs based on proven pressurized water reactor technology already operating ... to assure carbon-free energy security in ten years, and we have to start now.”
Under the agreement, “the parties will develop the division of responsibilities for procurement, construction, and commissioning of SMR-160 plants in the UK” said Holtec. They will also “jointly develop a cost estimate for deployment of the SMR-160 in the UK based on Holtec’s standard design."
Holtec plans to launch next year the government’s voluntary design acceptance process for its SMR that covers reactor safety, security, environmental protection and waste management. That process is separate from site-specific plant licensing.
The firm plans to deploy 32 SMR units by 2050 that would amount to a capacity of 5.1 GW, with construction of the first unit targeted to start in 2028.
Holtec added that it has identified three potential sites in the UK—two in England and one in Wales—“suitable for hosting the first wave of Holtec SMR-160s,” said Holtec Britain Director Gareth Thomas.
“We look forward to working with Holtec International to drive forward clean energy solutions," said Stephen Tarr, Balfour Beatty CEO for the firm's major transport and energy projects.
Rolls Royce, GE and NuScale In Mix
London-based Rolls-Royce, a leading SMR developer in Britain, heads a consortium that aims to build SMRs able to generate 470 MW, to be located at operating and former nuclear plant sites. Regulators now are reviewing its design application, with UK-based engineering firm Atkins supporting the Rolls-Royce effort.
The Rolls Royce effort has been aided by more than $250 million of government funding and about $235 million in private investment.
The manufaturer also announced on Dec. 19 four potential UK locations for its small reactors and three shortlisted sites for factories that will produce modules and components for SMR site assembly.
Rolls-Royce anticipates U.K. regulatory approval by mid-2024 and hopes to connect its first plant to the power grid by the early 2030s with a capital cost of about $2.4 billion. According to the firm, about 90% of manufacturing and assembly activities would be done in a factory, with energy generation from finished SMR units of about 15 GW.
Another contender to site SMRs in Britain is North Carolina-based GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, which also recently announced submission of a design assessment application for government review. The developer said it seeks to develop its BWRX-300 plant that would generate 300 MW and leverage aspects of GE's larger boiling-water reactor technology.
The design also now is undergoing pre-licensing review by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission and is being considered by the Tennessee Valley Authority.
“Through the [British design review] process, we look forward to engaging UK regulators and enabling collaboration with their global counterparts,” said Sean Sexstone, GE Hitachi executive vice president for advanced nuclear.
GE Hitachi said it has been supported in the design review process by Jacobs UK, which it said has been involved in licensing applications for new nuclear power plant projects since 2007.
NuScale Power Corp., another US small reactor developer and the first to have U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design approval, also is set to launch its technology in the UK.
“NuScale is a front-runner in SMR development ... and has developed a small module reactor that generates up to 77 MW using 1% of the space of a conventional reactor," said Marc Deschamps, co-head at boutique investment bank DAI Magister.
"We view ourselves as probably the most near-term deployable technology and the most mature program of any of the SMR vendors in terms of overall development and maturity," NuScale unit President Tom Mundy told UK publication New Civil Engineer. While noting uncertainties as to how SMR developers will operate within the Great British Nuclear framework, he said the firm will "continue to push forward and hopes to see our technology be part of the overall energy equation in the UK."
Texas-based contractor Fluor Corp. has a 57% ownership stake in NuScale.
But NuScale, as well as other developers and market observers, are watching how rising inflation and other economic gyrations are affecting project development costs and progress.
On its planned SMR project in Utah, which will include six reactors for a group of 50 western state municipal utilities that is set to operate in 2029, NuScale noted steep hikes in steel plate and piping among other rising project costs.
The increases could boost the utilities' agreed-to power supply price—triggering a possible contract renegotiation or even project abandonment, according to minutes of one utility member's recent meeting.
"We are prepared to help customers evaluate how inflationary pressures can impact potential clean energy projects," NuScale CEO John Hopkins said in a note to stakeholders and investors.
Many Twitter users rallied and suggested that the policy promoted actual pursuit of scientific truth.
Evolutionary behavioral scientist Gad Saad appeared to joke about the dogmatic way scientific experts were treated amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The science is anything that His Eminence Lord Fauci says it is," Saad quipped. "His Excellency is science."
Musk responded by observing, "Anyone who says that questioning them is questioning science itself cannot be regarded as a scientist."
Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton tweeted, "Bad news for transgender extremism, covid totalitarians, and climate alarmists."
Journalist David Martosko called upon followers to recognize Musk's announcement has massive implications.
"Isn't it remarkable that this is a departure from what we've seen for many years?" he asked. "I hope it also means it will be acceptable to examine who's funding science and what kind of restrictions that places is on scientists."
Eric Weinstein, mathematical physicist, economist and managing director of Thiel Capital, expressed hope that the change could be a major shift across a variety of subjects.
"This. Changes. Everything. If true," he wrote. "Is that a 1000% commitment to biologists that they can stop *lying* about biological sex, healthy reproductive development, ‘herd immunity’, genetic differences between geographically separated populations, horse paste, Wuhan Inst. GoF, etc.?"
NASA Earth Cartography and Data Visualization lead Joshua Stevens tweeted, "This is fair and reasonable. And if any scientist tells you otherwise, never let them wax poetic about curiosity and wonder ever again."
Some Twitter users appeared to condemn Musk’s statement.
New York Times contributor Wajahat Ali tweeted that Musk’s post was, "Something a really dumb person would tweet."
Journalist Ashton Pittman tweeted, "By 'reasoned questioning,' Elon Musk means batsh*t clown car conspiracy theorist drivel."
Full story
6) Green Britain: Energy prices are 'unlikely to return to normal' until next decade
Daily Mail, 30 December 2022
Energy bills misery is set to continue through 2023 amid warnings that the cost of heat and light will remain high for a decade.
Gas and electricity costs are unlikely to return to ‘normal’ until the 2030s, according to analysis from industry experts Cornwall Insight.
The average annual bill is set to rise from £2,500 to £3,000 in April, which means families and businesses will be paying more next winter.
Experts added that the total cost of the guarantee, which was introduced in October, is on course to cost as much as £47billion over 18 months.
Although this will be added to government borrowing, Cornwall Insight warned the cost will have to be paid back by taxpayers over the coming decades.
Analysts also said that surging bills can be directly linked to Vladimir’s Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the UK’s decision to stop buying Russian gas and oil.
This means Britain has become more reliant on imports of expensive gas from Norway and through shipments of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from America, the Middle East and parts of Africa.
Dr Matthew Chadwick, lead research analyst at Cornwall Insight, said: ‘Gas prices in the UK are projected to continue to be impacted as the country’s heavy reliance on imported gas sees it vulnerable to global rises.
These high prices... are unlikely to be a single winter problem, with prices forecast to be maintained in 2023-24 and unlikely to return to pre-2021 “normality” this decade.’
Highlighting factors such as the UK’s reliance on imports, he added: ‘There are risks of continued high gas prices and sustained elevated bills for consumers as we prepare for, and then move through, next winter.’
Any increase in the price of gas feeds through to electricity because it is used to fuel around 40 per of UK power stations.
Looking ahead, he said: ‘Our long-term forecasts indicate gas prices are likely to remain high up until the end of next winter, without some radical change in the buyer-seller relationship between Europe and Russia.
‘The plausible scenarios are that pipeline flows of Russian gas will be even further reduced on summer 2022 and we will also see gas prices remaining above pre-pandemic levels until at least 2030 as the market takes time to adjust to this change in supply and demand dynamics in Europe.’
Energy bills are due to surge again in April when increases in broadband, phone tariffs and council tax are also set to come into effect.
The Government’s energy price guarantee scheme, which protects households against the worst of the wholesale price increases, is due to lapse in the spring of 2024.
Full story
Energy News-Record, 30 December 2022
The UK government's push to develop more nuclear power as a cleaner energy alternative is going beyond its November buyout of China’s interest in the planned 3.3-GW Sizewell C nuclear power plant and a new 50% stake in the firm developing the megaproject on England's east coast. The government also is seeking proposals from developer and construction sector teams for small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) technology to expedite its fossil fuel transition.
As part of an energy strategy announced last spring, the government has committed to greater SMR investment and has created a new entity, Great British Nuclear, to bring forward new projects to help meet a target of up to 24 GW of nuclear energy by 2050. This would represent up to about 25% of the UK's forecasted electricity demand, it said.
The government also has set up a new Future Nuclear Enabling Fund to financially support new nuclear projects.
The smaller plants are set to generate between 50 MW and 300 MW of power, compared with the 1,000-MW-plus output from a conventional large reactor, and also make use of modular manufacturing approaches that reduce the construction risks of bigger structures. SMRs have less complex designs, are safer to refuel and maintain, can be used to power large industrial sites or data centers, and can produce green hydrogen, experts say.
SMR Competition Builds
London-based Balfour Beatty could be one of the first UK contractors to build an SMR in Britain, announcing Dec. 19 an agreement with the British arm of Jupiter, Fla.-based nuclear energy firm Holtec International, along with Hyundai Engineering and Construction, to support engineering and construction of the U.S developer's SMR-160 pressurized light-water reactor in Britain that would generate 160 MW of power.
“The United Kingdom is at a turning point as it navigates through this energy crisis,” said Richard M. Springman, Holtec International senior vice president. “It will need multiple, complementary nuclear power plant designs based on proven pressurized water reactor technology already operating ... to assure carbon-free energy security in ten years, and we have to start now.”
Under the agreement, “the parties will develop the division of responsibilities for procurement, construction, and commissioning of SMR-160 plants in the UK” said Holtec. They will also “jointly develop a cost estimate for deployment of the SMR-160 in the UK based on Holtec’s standard design."
Holtec plans to launch next year the government’s voluntary design acceptance process for its SMR that covers reactor safety, security, environmental protection and waste management. That process is separate from site-specific plant licensing.
The firm plans to deploy 32 SMR units by 2050 that would amount to a capacity of 5.1 GW, with construction of the first unit targeted to start in 2028.
Holtec added that it has identified three potential sites in the UK—two in England and one in Wales—“suitable for hosting the first wave of Holtec SMR-160s,” said Holtec Britain Director Gareth Thomas.
“We look forward to working with Holtec International to drive forward clean energy solutions," said Stephen Tarr, Balfour Beatty CEO for the firm's major transport and energy projects.
Rolls Royce, GE and NuScale In Mix
London-based Rolls-Royce, a leading SMR developer in Britain, heads a consortium that aims to build SMRs able to generate 470 MW, to be located at operating and former nuclear plant sites. Regulators now are reviewing its design application, with UK-based engineering firm Atkins supporting the Rolls-Royce effort.
The Rolls Royce effort has been aided by more than $250 million of government funding and about $235 million in private investment.
The manufaturer also announced on Dec. 19 four potential UK locations for its small reactors and three shortlisted sites for factories that will produce modules and components for SMR site assembly.
Rolls-Royce anticipates U.K. regulatory approval by mid-2024 and hopes to connect its first plant to the power grid by the early 2030s with a capital cost of about $2.4 billion. According to the firm, about 90% of manufacturing and assembly activities would be done in a factory, with energy generation from finished SMR units of about 15 GW.
Another contender to site SMRs in Britain is North Carolina-based GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, which also recently announced submission of a design assessment application for government review. The developer said it seeks to develop its BWRX-300 plant that would generate 300 MW and leverage aspects of GE's larger boiling-water reactor technology.
The design also now is undergoing pre-licensing review by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission and is being considered by the Tennessee Valley Authority.
“Through the [British design review] process, we look forward to engaging UK regulators and enabling collaboration with their global counterparts,” said Sean Sexstone, GE Hitachi executive vice president for advanced nuclear.
GE Hitachi said it has been supported in the design review process by Jacobs UK, which it said has been involved in licensing applications for new nuclear power plant projects since 2007.
NuScale Power Corp., another US small reactor developer and the first to have U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design approval, also is set to launch its technology in the UK.
“NuScale is a front-runner in SMR development ... and has developed a small module reactor that generates up to 77 MW using 1% of the space of a conventional reactor," said Marc Deschamps, co-head at boutique investment bank DAI Magister.
"We view ourselves as probably the most near-term deployable technology and the most mature program of any of the SMR vendors in terms of overall development and maturity," NuScale unit President Tom Mundy told UK publication New Civil Engineer. While noting uncertainties as to how SMR developers will operate within the Great British Nuclear framework, he said the firm will "continue to push forward and hopes to see our technology be part of the overall energy equation in the UK."
Texas-based contractor Fluor Corp. has a 57% ownership stake in NuScale.
But NuScale, as well as other developers and market observers, are watching how rising inflation and other economic gyrations are affecting project development costs and progress.
On its planned SMR project in Utah, which will include six reactors for a group of 50 western state municipal utilities that is set to operate in 2029, NuScale noted steep hikes in steel plate and piping among other rising project costs.
The increases could boost the utilities' agreed-to power supply price—triggering a possible contract renegotiation or even project abandonment, according to minutes of one utility member's recent meeting.
"We are prepared to help customers evaluate how inflationary pressures can impact potential clean energy projects," NuScale CEO John Hopkins said in a note to stakeholders and investors.
8) Andrew Orlowski: The energy crisis risks dooming the electric car
The Daily Telegraph, 29 December 2022
Western societies are charging into the electrification of transport without actually providing the electricity
The first cracks have appeared. Two weeks ago, the president of Toyota, Akio Toyoda, committed a stunning heresy. He gave voice to the thoughts of the “silent majority” in the auto industry.
“That silent majority is wondering whether electric vehicles are really OK to have as a single option. But they think it’s the trend so they can’t speak out loudly,” he said.
Bravely, Mr Toyoda made his remarks beside a new range of concept electric cars that Toyota unveiled. By uttering such words, however, he may have opened a fissure much greater than he imagined.
Generally, I make it a rule never to dunk on electric cars, no matter how self-satisfied and smug the owners may be. And not just because hydrogen, the politically-correct alternative, is even more unfeasible, but because all car owners have a common enemy. The car is being assaulted by the bureaucrat whose eyes gleam at the prospect of imposing a “15 minute city” or a low traffic neighbourhood on their fiefdom.
The utopia that these childless millennials imagine for their urban paradises only permits a bike or a scooter. Yet beyond London’s Zone 3, where work requires a car, this is not a viable option.
However, for the EV market the indicators are now flashing red. It’s becoming clear that the number of people who could become a happy EV owner is now reaching a ceiling.
To be a prospective EV owner you must tick many boxes. You will need a high disposable income, for an EV is increasingly expensive, and the taxpayer-funded sweeteners are disappearing. You will need to be able to charge in your driveway, as the public charging network is unreliable and expensive. And your journeys will be predictable and short, while your longer journeys can be planned in a leisurely fashion.
For the entire freight industry where limited ranges and long turnaround times spell commercial suicide – that will not do. With its high energy density and low cost and efficient fuel network, petrol and diesel are the superior consumer technologies. This is simply the point Mr Aiko was making.
Autotrader’s latest EV market survey notes that the price of EVs has risen 36pc from a year ago, with the supply of used electric vehicles now outpacing demand for the first time ever. EVs make up just 3pc of the enquiries sent to retailers, the site’s analysts report. It also notes that the pool of potential buyers, with their own charging spots, is diminishing. “Although current sales figures look positive, the rapid decline in consumer appetite for electric vehicles reveals the market is on thin ice where mass electric adoption is concerned,” it concludes.
While we now have some 36,000 chargers, the portents from the United States are not good. When EV demand stalls, the infrastructure is never completed, and slowly falls into disrepair. For Toyota, stalling EV demand means that the bulk of its products in 2030, which are being designed today, mat not be as competitive as they should.
But the real issue Mr Toyoda has opened up is this: Western societies are charging into the electrification of transport and heating without actually providing the electricity. This cannot be wished away.
In January, the then secretary of state for trade, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, told Parliament that “we are going to be requiring up to four times as much electricity” to meet demand for electrified heating and transport. Yet we are not building four times as much electric generation capacity.
The energy legacy of the Conservatives will be the loss of reliable energy. For example, only two years ago, the UK was running 15 operational nuclear reactors, but by 2030 it will be just three, and that’s assuming no further delays. The reality is that we have created two parallel energy systems; one of which works, while the other does not. The politicised grid mashes them together, making the one that provides reliable and low cost energy both expensive and unstable.
And then along comes a genuine cold snap which exposes our new reliance on nature, and sub-prime energy technologies. Climate change campaigners who are inclined to view any weather event as a policy message dictated personally by an Earth deity should remember this trick works both ways.
During our recent dunkelflaute - a period of high pressure, freezing temperatures and no wind - our onshore wind blades stood still for three weeks, consuming power, but not generating any. What wind power we got, and it wasn’t very much, all came from offshore facilities.
The Germans have bulldozed wind farms to get to the good stuff beneath: coal use in Germany is up 13pc in 2022. But over there, the industrialists and manufacturers have more influence, while our Oxford PPE-dominated policy classes in Whitehall are united in their groupthink – and immune from the consequences of their decisions.
Together with the City spivs, the academics and the broadcast media all selling us the fantasy of a “great green energy transition” they should be worried.
Magical thinking has taken them a long way, but it is possibly as far as they can go.
Western societies are charging into the electrification of transport without actually providing the electricity
The first cracks have appeared. Two weeks ago, the president of Toyota, Akio Toyoda, committed a stunning heresy. He gave voice to the thoughts of the “silent majority” in the auto industry.
“That silent majority is wondering whether electric vehicles are really OK to have as a single option. But they think it’s the trend so they can’t speak out loudly,” he said.
Bravely, Mr Toyoda made his remarks beside a new range of concept electric cars that Toyota unveiled. By uttering such words, however, he may have opened a fissure much greater than he imagined.
Generally, I make it a rule never to dunk on electric cars, no matter how self-satisfied and smug the owners may be. And not just because hydrogen, the politically-correct alternative, is even more unfeasible, but because all car owners have a common enemy. The car is being assaulted by the bureaucrat whose eyes gleam at the prospect of imposing a “15 minute city” or a low traffic neighbourhood on their fiefdom.
The utopia that these childless millennials imagine for their urban paradises only permits a bike or a scooter. Yet beyond London’s Zone 3, where work requires a car, this is not a viable option.
However, for the EV market the indicators are now flashing red. It’s becoming clear that the number of people who could become a happy EV owner is now reaching a ceiling.
To be a prospective EV owner you must tick many boxes. You will need a high disposable income, for an EV is increasingly expensive, and the taxpayer-funded sweeteners are disappearing. You will need to be able to charge in your driveway, as the public charging network is unreliable and expensive. And your journeys will be predictable and short, while your longer journeys can be planned in a leisurely fashion.
For the entire freight industry where limited ranges and long turnaround times spell commercial suicide – that will not do. With its high energy density and low cost and efficient fuel network, petrol and diesel are the superior consumer technologies. This is simply the point Mr Aiko was making.
Autotrader’s latest EV market survey notes that the price of EVs has risen 36pc from a year ago, with the supply of used electric vehicles now outpacing demand for the first time ever. EVs make up just 3pc of the enquiries sent to retailers, the site’s analysts report. It also notes that the pool of potential buyers, with their own charging spots, is diminishing. “Although current sales figures look positive, the rapid decline in consumer appetite for electric vehicles reveals the market is on thin ice where mass electric adoption is concerned,” it concludes.
While we now have some 36,000 chargers, the portents from the United States are not good. When EV demand stalls, the infrastructure is never completed, and slowly falls into disrepair. For Toyota, stalling EV demand means that the bulk of its products in 2030, which are being designed today, mat not be as competitive as they should.
But the real issue Mr Toyoda has opened up is this: Western societies are charging into the electrification of transport and heating without actually providing the electricity. This cannot be wished away.
In January, the then secretary of state for trade, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, told Parliament that “we are going to be requiring up to four times as much electricity” to meet demand for electrified heating and transport. Yet we are not building four times as much electric generation capacity.
The energy legacy of the Conservatives will be the loss of reliable energy. For example, only two years ago, the UK was running 15 operational nuclear reactors, but by 2030 it will be just three, and that’s assuming no further delays. The reality is that we have created two parallel energy systems; one of which works, while the other does not. The politicised grid mashes them together, making the one that provides reliable and low cost energy both expensive and unstable.
And then along comes a genuine cold snap which exposes our new reliance on nature, and sub-prime energy technologies. Climate change campaigners who are inclined to view any weather event as a policy message dictated personally by an Earth deity should remember this trick works both ways.
During our recent dunkelflaute - a period of high pressure, freezing temperatures and no wind - our onshore wind blades stood still for three weeks, consuming power, but not generating any. What wind power we got, and it wasn’t very much, all came from offshore facilities.
The Germans have bulldozed wind farms to get to the good stuff beneath: coal use in Germany is up 13pc in 2022. But over there, the industrialists and manufacturers have more influence, while our Oxford PPE-dominated policy classes in Whitehall are united in their groupthink – and immune from the consequences of their decisions.
Together with the City spivs, the academics and the broadcast media all selling us the fantasy of a “great green energy transition” they should be worried.
Magical thinking has taken them a long way, but it is possibly as far as they can go.
9) Judith Curry: The yin and yang of climate science
Climate Etc., 29 December 2022
How the duality of yin-yang can illuminate the climate debate and enlighten transformational research.
Ok, this is something different, I hope you will find it interesting.
A little known JC fact is that my main hobby is Tai Chi. I am very fortunate to be studying under Master Reza Nejad, an exceptionally accomplished martial artist currently living in Reno, NV. He is also the “Bruce Lee of Iran” [link; scroll down the page for cinema clips]
Master Nejad recommended me to the organizers of the 2022 International Taiji Science Forum. The organizers invited me to give a talk, which rather astonished me. I was getting ready to politely decline the invitation, when the wheels started turning in my head and I came up with an interesting idea for a talk.
I decided to use the yin-yang framework as the basis for a philosophy of science talk.
You are probably generally familiar with the concept of yin and yang. Yin and yang is a complex relational concept in Chinese philosophy and culture that has developed over thousands of years. The meaning of yin and yang is that the universe is governed by a cosmic duality – sets of two opposing and complementing principles or cosmic energies that can be observed in nature.
Yin and yang elements come in pairs—moon and the sun, female and male, dark and bright, cold and hot, passive and active, etc. While the world is composed of many different and sometimes opposing forces, these can coexist and even complement each other. The nature of yin-yang lies in the interchange and interplay of the two components.
The yin-yang symbol consists of a circle divided into two halves by a curved line. One half of the circle is black, representing the yin side; the other is white, for the yang side. The two halves are intertwining across a spiral-like curve that splits the whole into semicircles, and the small dots represent the idea that both sides carry the seed of the other. The curvy line signifies that there are no absolute separations between the two opposites. The yin-yang symbol embodies both sides: duality, paradox, unity in diversity, change, and harmony.
My full presentation can be downloaded [taiji science curry], ppt with audio (19 minutes).
Below is the relevant text, along with illustrative diagrams.
Introduction
With this context, I focus my talk on how the duality of yin-yang can illuminate the climate debate and enlighten transformational scientific research.
In the west, the concept of yin-yang has been interpreted, applied and appropriated in many different ways. My interpretation here focuses on applications of the essential duality implied by yin-yang. I propose that this duality can enrich our thinking on how to approach the process of science and creativity, towards fostering transformational research.
Two modes of thinking
At the most fundamental level of scientific research, the duality of binary modes of thinking reflects the essential yin-yang tension. These two modes of thinking have been described from the perspectives of economics, psychology and physics. The idea of two modes of thinking has been most famously portrayed in Daniel Kahnemann’s book Thinking Fast and Slow. System 1 is the fast, automatic multitasking mode that we usually operate in, such as when walking, chatting, looking around. By contrast, System 2 is a more deliberate and focused mode of mindful intent.
You might think that System 2 thinking is the most important mode for scientific research. However, Guy Claxton’s most important insight in Hair Brain, Tortoise Mind is that the leisurely tortoise mind, for all its apparent aimlessness, is just as intelligent as the more logical hare brain.
But how can the aimless tortoise brain contribute to scientific research? Tim Palmer’s book The Primacy of Doubt provides some insights. Specifically, on the importance of the stochasticity of System 1 thinking in generating new ideas.
Role of the monkey
Palmer provides an energy-based interpretation of thinking, whereby System 2 is the high-power, intensive mode. By contrast, System 1 is a lower power mode where power is spread between many active tasks, so that power per active task is especially low.
In low power mode, the brain is susceptible to noise. Palmer argues that this noise can be a source of random new ideas. This can explain why ‘eureka’ moments, or flashes of insight, often occur when we are relaxing and not concentrating hard on a problem. In this relaxation mode, the presence of noise can help us jump out of a cognitive roadblock and advance our understanding.
The ‘monkey mind in Tai Chi represents brain chatter that jumps around and darts from one distraction to the other. One objective of Tai Chi and Qigong movements are to bring the brain back to mindfulness (‘repulse the monkey’). Palmer’s framework suggests that there is a role for the monkey in helping generate the noise that can be the source of random new ideas. So, we don’t want to entirely repulse the monkey, but manage the monkey while nourishing the tortoise.
So to achieve the most transformative oneness from our binary brain, the idea is to make constructive use of noise in the low-power mode. This can provide new ideas, which our more analytic, power-intensive mode is failing to provide.
Duality in science
With regards to the actual scientific process, there are many fundamental dualities, which I have presumed to categorize in terms of yin and yang. The major dualities include
My own scientific education, many decades ago, was focused on the attributes that I have listed on the Yin side. Over time, my research has migrated in the directions that are characterized by the Yang side. These two opposing and complementary approaches, when appropriately integrated, can produce transformational research.
Full post & comments
Climate Etc., 29 December 2022
How the duality of yin-yang can illuminate the climate debate and enlighten transformational research.
Ok, this is something different, I hope you will find it interesting.
A little known JC fact is that my main hobby is Tai Chi. I am very fortunate to be studying under Master Reza Nejad, an exceptionally accomplished martial artist currently living in Reno, NV. He is also the “Bruce Lee of Iran” [link; scroll down the page for cinema clips]
Master Nejad recommended me to the organizers of the 2022 International Taiji Science Forum. The organizers invited me to give a talk, which rather astonished me. I was getting ready to politely decline the invitation, when the wheels started turning in my head and I came up with an interesting idea for a talk.
I decided to use the yin-yang framework as the basis for a philosophy of science talk.
You are probably generally familiar with the concept of yin and yang. Yin and yang is a complex relational concept in Chinese philosophy and culture that has developed over thousands of years. The meaning of yin and yang is that the universe is governed by a cosmic duality – sets of two opposing and complementing principles or cosmic energies that can be observed in nature.
Yin and yang elements come in pairs—moon and the sun, female and male, dark and bright, cold and hot, passive and active, etc. While the world is composed of many different and sometimes opposing forces, these can coexist and even complement each other. The nature of yin-yang lies in the interchange and interplay of the two components.
The yin-yang symbol consists of a circle divided into two halves by a curved line. One half of the circle is black, representing the yin side; the other is white, for the yang side. The two halves are intertwining across a spiral-like curve that splits the whole into semicircles, and the small dots represent the idea that both sides carry the seed of the other. The curvy line signifies that there are no absolute separations between the two opposites. The yin-yang symbol embodies both sides: duality, paradox, unity in diversity, change, and harmony.
My full presentation can be downloaded [taiji science curry], ppt with audio (19 minutes).
Below is the relevant text, along with illustrative diagrams.
Introduction
With this context, I focus my talk on how the duality of yin-yang can illuminate the climate debate and enlighten transformational scientific research.
In the west, the concept of yin-yang has been interpreted, applied and appropriated in many different ways. My interpretation here focuses on applications of the essential duality implied by yin-yang. I propose that this duality can enrich our thinking on how to approach the process of science and creativity, towards fostering transformational research.
Two modes of thinking
At the most fundamental level of scientific research, the duality of binary modes of thinking reflects the essential yin-yang tension. These two modes of thinking have been described from the perspectives of economics, psychology and physics. The idea of two modes of thinking has been most famously portrayed in Daniel Kahnemann’s book Thinking Fast and Slow. System 1 is the fast, automatic multitasking mode that we usually operate in, such as when walking, chatting, looking around. By contrast, System 2 is a more deliberate and focused mode of mindful intent.
You might think that System 2 thinking is the most important mode for scientific research. However, Guy Claxton’s most important insight in Hair Brain, Tortoise Mind is that the leisurely tortoise mind, for all its apparent aimlessness, is just as intelligent as the more logical hare brain.
But how can the aimless tortoise brain contribute to scientific research? Tim Palmer’s book The Primacy of Doubt provides some insights. Specifically, on the importance of the stochasticity of System 1 thinking in generating new ideas.
Role of the monkey
Palmer provides an energy-based interpretation of thinking, whereby System 2 is the high-power, intensive mode. By contrast, System 1 is a lower power mode where power is spread between many active tasks, so that power per active task is especially low.
In low power mode, the brain is susceptible to noise. Palmer argues that this noise can be a source of random new ideas. This can explain why ‘eureka’ moments, or flashes of insight, often occur when we are relaxing and not concentrating hard on a problem. In this relaxation mode, the presence of noise can help us jump out of a cognitive roadblock and advance our understanding.
The ‘monkey mind in Tai Chi represents brain chatter that jumps around and darts from one distraction to the other. One objective of Tai Chi and Qigong movements are to bring the brain back to mindfulness (‘repulse the monkey’). Palmer’s framework suggests that there is a role for the monkey in helping generate the noise that can be the source of random new ideas. So, we don’t want to entirely repulse the monkey, but manage the monkey while nourishing the tortoise.
So to achieve the most transformative oneness from our binary brain, the idea is to make constructive use of noise in the low-power mode. This can provide new ideas, which our more analytic, power-intensive mode is failing to provide.
Duality in science
With regards to the actual scientific process, there are many fundamental dualities, which I have presumed to categorize in terms of yin and yang. The major dualities include
My own scientific education, many decades ago, was focused on the attributes that I have listed on the Yin side. Over time, my research has migrated in the directions that are characterized by the Yang side. These two opposing and complementary approaches, when appropriately integrated, can produce transformational research.
Full post & comments
10) Susan Crockford: W. Hudson Bay polar bear population decline stories are unethical and ignore critical caveats
Polar Bear Science, 28 December 2022
Canadian government scientists created headline news worldwide last week when they told the media that Western Hudson Bay polar bear numbers appeared to have declined by 27% between 2017 and 2021, based on a survey report that has not been made public.
This is called ‘science by press release’. Its practice is rightfully considered unethical, as it is usually associated with “people promoting scientific ‘findings’ of questionable scientific merit who turn to the media for attention when they are unlikely to win the approval of the professional scientific community.”
Not surprisingly, all of the stories stated or implied a strong association between this purported population decline and lack of sea ice due to ‘climate change’. However, sea ice conditions have been particularly good over the last five years–for both freeze-up and breakup dates–calling into question how ‘lack of sea ice’ could possibly be to blame for the apparent decline.
A Reuters story (dated 23 December 2022) admits this is the case and included another critical caveat that only one news outlet I saw bothered to mention, which happened to be BBC News:
"Scientists cautioned a direct link between the population decline and sea ice loss in Hudson Bay wasn’t yet clear, as four of the past five years have seen moderately good ice conditions. Instead, they said, climate-caused changes in the local seal population might be driving bear numbers down."
For example, an Associated Press story published the day before (22 December 2022), picked up by many other outlets, did not include these critical pieces of information about recent good sea ice conditions and possible declines in seal abundance.
Without being able to check the actual government report for details (which is not a peer-reviewed document), there is not much more that I can say. Although several news stories claimed the report was recently released, it was not publicly available on the Nunavut Government website as of 28 December or anywhere else online that I could find. None of the news reports link to any such ‘available’ study, cited its title, or even linked to an official press release.
However, based on the Reuters story, it appears that the authors were unable to make a definitive link between sea ice loss and a decline in polar bear numbers in Western Hudson Bay, despite what they (or others) might have told the media.
Full post
Polar Bear Science, 28 December 2022
Canadian government scientists created headline news worldwide last week when they told the media that Western Hudson Bay polar bear numbers appeared to have declined by 27% between 2017 and 2021, based on a survey report that has not been made public.
This is called ‘science by press release’. Its practice is rightfully considered unethical, as it is usually associated with “people promoting scientific ‘findings’ of questionable scientific merit who turn to the media for attention when they are unlikely to win the approval of the professional scientific community.”
Not surprisingly, all of the stories stated or implied a strong association between this purported population decline and lack of sea ice due to ‘climate change’. However, sea ice conditions have been particularly good over the last five years–for both freeze-up and breakup dates–calling into question how ‘lack of sea ice’ could possibly be to blame for the apparent decline.
A Reuters story (dated 23 December 2022) admits this is the case and included another critical caveat that only one news outlet I saw bothered to mention, which happened to be BBC News:
"Scientists cautioned a direct link between the population decline and sea ice loss in Hudson Bay wasn’t yet clear, as four of the past five years have seen moderately good ice conditions. Instead, they said, climate-caused changes in the local seal population might be driving bear numbers down."
For example, an Associated Press story published the day before (22 December 2022), picked up by many other outlets, did not include these critical pieces of information about recent good sea ice conditions and possible declines in seal abundance.
Without being able to check the actual government report for details (which is not a peer-reviewed document), there is not much more that I can say. Although several news stories claimed the report was recently released, it was not publicly available on the Nunavut Government website as of 28 December or anywhere else online that I could find. None of the news reports link to any such ‘available’ study, cited its title, or even linked to an official press release.
However, based on the Reuters story, it appears that the authors were unable to make a definitive link between sea ice loss and a decline in polar bear numbers in Western Hudson Bay, despite what they (or others) might have told the media.
Full post
The London-based Net Zero Watch is a campaign group set up to highlight and discuss the serious implications of expensive and poorly considered climate change policies. The Net Zero Watch newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.netzerowatch.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thanks for engaging in the debate!
Because this is a public forum, we will only publish comments that are respectful and do NOT contain links to other sites. We appreciate your cooperation.