In this newsletter:
1) Gas heating ban could topple Germany’s government
The Daily Telegraph, 31 May 2023
2) Net Zero heating ban and expensive energy: German houses lose up to 30 percent in value
Deutsche Press Agentur, 2 June 2023
3) Cheap energy & low wages: Entire car industries will migrate to China
Focus Magazin, 2 June 2023
4) Green & declining: Germany loses trust in its future as the world’s automotive leader
EurActiv, 30 May 2023
5) After nuclear power shut-down, Germany will need more coal power next winter
Clean Energy Wire, 2 June 2023
6) How Germans grew sick of the Greens
The Times, 1 June 2023
7) Christopher Chantrill: Dealing with the upcoming climate failure blame game
American Thinker, 30 May 2023
8) Cost concerns push green agenda down the priority list for businesses
Energy Live News, 1 June 2023
9) Jamie Blackett: Ireland’s mooted cow massacre is a warning to net zero Britain
The Daily Telegraph, 2 June 2023
10) Sen Mike Crapo: Biden's green energy tax breaks hurt America and help China
Fox News, 1 June 2023
11) Arnold Schwarzenegger laments ‘No one gives a s—t’ about climate change'
Breitbart, 1 June 2023
Breitbart, 1 June 2023
12) And finally: New study reveals ice around Antarctica’s Thwaites ‘Doomsday’ Glacier was eight times thinner around 8,000 years ago
The Daily Sceptic, 2 June 2023
The Daily Sceptic, 2 June 2023
Full details:
1) Gas heating ban could topple Germany’s government
The Daily Telegraph, 31 May 2023
The Daily Telegraph, 31 May 2023
Germany has recently slipped into recession and the Government is in some danger of being toppled by a mass revolt against heat pumps. Germans are in open revolt against the ‘heat hammer’ – Britain must take note.
By Jeremy Warner
Ah Germany, land of economic resilience, political consensus, low debt, social compliance, manufacturing prowess, beer gardens and lederhosen. But for how much longer?
Alone among G7 advanced economies, Germany has recently slipped into recession, and hard though it may be to believe, the Government is in some danger of being toppled by, of all things, a mass revolt against heat pumps.
Germany has long had a problem with energy policy; so utterly destructive has its machinations become that it makes our own failings in this department – which are myriad – look like a paragon of common sense by comparison.
Boilergeddon, or what Germans have labelled the “heat hammer”, is just the latest, farcical example of the destructive chaos that the unthinking and unmitigated pursuit of environmental goals has unleashed on the German economy.
To reach its climate change targets, Germany’s coalition government had been planning to bring in a new law that would ban the installation of new gas and oil fired boilers from the beginning of next year onwards.
The upshot is not just a mad dash among households to install traditional gas fired boilers while they still can, but a collapse in the Government’s poll ratings and an increasingly acrimonious standoff between two of the coalition partners – the Greens and the more enterprise friendly Free Democrats.
Energy policy is not the only issue on which they are at loggerheads. Far from it, with the very foundations of Germany’s postwar economic success and affluence seemingly collapsing beneath their feet. But it is the most high profile.
As a foretaste of what may be to come in the UK, which is planning a similar ban for new-build houses the year after next, and is considering a blanket prohibition on all properties from 2035 onwards, the German experience in attempting to impose heat pumps on an ever more reluctant population makes for particularly alarming reading.
Generally ineffective and often fiendishly expensive both to install and to run, heat pumps have been widely branded an unacceptable obligation among German voters, who are up in arms at the idea of being compelled to buy them.
Such has been the ferocity of public reaction to Germany’s “heat hammer” that a grovelling climbdown now looks likely.
The debacle has piled on the agony and self doubt in an economy whose heavy reliance on the internal combustion engine has left it stranded as the world rushes at breakneck speed towards electrified forms of transport.
“We’ve been naïve as a society because everything seems fine,” Martin Brudermüller, chief executive of BASF, recently told Bloomberg. “These problems we have in Germany are accumulating. We have a period of change ahead of us; I don’t know if everyone realises this.”
Pride of place in the catalogue of errors that increasingly defines public policy in Germany goes to energy strategy, which is a mass of contradictions and misjudgments.
As if determined to keep shooting itself in the foot, Germany last month closed the last three of its remaining nuclear power plants, thereby fulfilling an election pledge by the Greens, who hold the energy portfolio, and for whom the abolition of nuclear power is a long standing obsession verging on a religiously held belief.
While others are desperately trying to crank up their nuclear generation to meet net zero targets, Germany has gone haring off in the other direction and closed down some of the most efficient nuclear power plants in Europe.
This final act of stupidity comes hard on the heels of the shock of having to wean the nation off Russian gas supplies, addiction to which counts as another piece of genius in German energy policy, this one engineered by the Putin-loving former Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder.
There was at least one mistake which I suppose the Germans didn’t make. Unlike Britain, they didn’t dynamite their remaining coal fired power stations, so that there is at least some generating capacity to fill the gap left by Putin.
Yet to be closing down near zero-emitting nuclear plants while simultaneously reopening CO2 spewing coal plants? This can hardly be called environmentalism.
Mind you, Britain hardly looks a great deal better on that front.
Full post
2) Net Zero heating ban and expensive energy: German houses lose up to 30 percent in value
Deutsche Press Agentur, 2 June 2023
Republicans have warned that the IRA would take us down a dangerous, fiscally irresponsible path to provide ever-ballooning subsidies, antagonize allies and, ironically, reward the very industries that are reliant on China.
President Biden said during a Thursday press conference that he makes "no apology" for the Inflation Reduction Act but acknowledged "glitches" with the law, which has been criticized by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle have long recognized the need to reform our energy tax laws. But rather than work on stakeholder-informed, bipartisan energy tax policies that would support a technology-neutral approach, Democrats pursued a partisan path through their misnamed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Republicans warned that the IRA would take us down a dangerous, fiscally irresponsible path to provide ever-ballooning subsidies, antagonize allies and, ironically, reward the very industries that are reliant on China. Unfortunately, what we warned of has come to pass, leaving Americans to deal with the fallout of these predicted consequences:
Soaring Costs:
One consequence is the cost, which keeps rocketing upward by hundreds of billions of dollars. Cost estimates for the IRA’s energy tax incentives have increased markedly since the enactment of the law. Penn Wharton’s Budget Model originally estimated the climate and energy provisions in the IRA would cost nearly $385 billion. After new implementation details emerged, Penn Wharton revised the model, estimating the climate and energy provisions would actually cost upward of $1 trillion.
Spending on clean cars and trucks alone is now estimated to cost $393 billion over 10 years--more than the original estimate for the entirety of the IRA’s energy and climate-related provisions.
Inflation Driver, Not Reducer:
While many have focused on the fact the IRA is not forecasted to actually reduce inflation (indeed, Federal Reserve data on stubbornly-high electricity and fuel prices validate these concerns), some have persuasively argued it will actually fuel inflation. Their argument is that existing (and likely future) raw materials--both critical minerals, and metals like copper and aluminum--are insufficient to meet forecasted resource demand as the IRA forces a transition to an electricity-focused future. These supplies cannot be rapidly scaled up, whether at home or abroad.
As more money chases constrained raw material supplies, costs will increase. Given that many goods Americans use are also made from these materials, cost increases will ripple through the economy.
Strained Relationships:
A strain on America’s trade relationships with allies is another predicted consequence. To mitigate our partners’ anger on electric vehicles tax credits, the Biden administration usurped congressional authority by redefining the long-understood concept of a market-oriented "free trade agreement" to now include agreements that fail to open any markets for American workers. Not only have these executive agreements caused significant foreign trade disputes with our allies, but they have also sparked bipartisan backlash from members of Congress.
Disadvantages American Production:
The rushed, disjointed policies at the heart of the IRA’s provisions have put American companies and consumers at a disadvantage. The Biden administration has resorted to unilaterally walking back and diluting key guardrails at every opportunity. Each move supports manufacturing jobs overseas and cedes additional control of our supply chains to foreign competitors, as even some of my colleagues across the aisle have acknowledged.
Domestic supplies of critical minerals that are eligible for the credit are particularly insufficient to meet anticipated demand. While the IRA includes incentives to re-shore the production and refining of critical minerals, foreign actors--particularly China--have a significantly entrenched dominance in the area. Faster regulatory and permitting approval is necessary to reduce the barriers for investments in critical minerals in the U.S., and will have a far greater impact than any IRA incentive.
Advantages China:
While many U.S. companies and consumers are at a disadvantage under the new green energy regime, there is one clear winner: China. Given China’s dominant position in numerous aspects of the alternative energy ecosphere, any green energy tax incentives that do not explicitly prevent claimants from involving China in any aspect of the particular supply chain will benefit China.
In China, economies of scale, supply chains and first-mover advantages ensure that for the foreseeable future, most of America’s green energy growth will be originating from the one place the IRA claims it should not. Gaping loopholes in the bill, like the "leasing exception" for EVs, as well as expansive regulatory guidance that undercuts key legislative guardrails will enable Chinese minerals, materials and entities to qualify for IRA subsidies reinforce America’s dependence on China for alternative energy. Meanwhile, the administration’s rules and guidance may potentially exclude domestic players who are connected to traditional energy sources.
Full post
By Jeremy Warner
Ah Germany, land of economic resilience, political consensus, low debt, social compliance, manufacturing prowess, beer gardens and lederhosen. But for how much longer?
Alone among G7 advanced economies, Germany has recently slipped into recession, and hard though it may be to believe, the Government is in some danger of being toppled by, of all things, a mass revolt against heat pumps.
Germany has long had a problem with energy policy; so utterly destructive has its machinations become that it makes our own failings in this department – which are myriad – look like a paragon of common sense by comparison.
Boilergeddon, or what Germans have labelled the “heat hammer”, is just the latest, farcical example of the destructive chaos that the unthinking and unmitigated pursuit of environmental goals has unleashed on the German economy.
To reach its climate change targets, Germany’s coalition government had been planning to bring in a new law that would ban the installation of new gas and oil fired boilers from the beginning of next year onwards.
The upshot is not just a mad dash among households to install traditional gas fired boilers while they still can, but a collapse in the Government’s poll ratings and an increasingly acrimonious standoff between two of the coalition partners – the Greens and the more enterprise friendly Free Democrats.
Energy policy is not the only issue on which they are at loggerheads. Far from it, with the very foundations of Germany’s postwar economic success and affluence seemingly collapsing beneath their feet. But it is the most high profile.
As a foretaste of what may be to come in the UK, which is planning a similar ban for new-build houses the year after next, and is considering a blanket prohibition on all properties from 2035 onwards, the German experience in attempting to impose heat pumps on an ever more reluctant population makes for particularly alarming reading.
Generally ineffective and often fiendishly expensive both to install and to run, heat pumps have been widely branded an unacceptable obligation among German voters, who are up in arms at the idea of being compelled to buy them.
Such has been the ferocity of public reaction to Germany’s “heat hammer” that a grovelling climbdown now looks likely.
The debacle has piled on the agony and self doubt in an economy whose heavy reliance on the internal combustion engine has left it stranded as the world rushes at breakneck speed towards electrified forms of transport.
“We’ve been naïve as a society because everything seems fine,” Martin Brudermüller, chief executive of BASF, recently told Bloomberg. “These problems we have in Germany are accumulating. We have a period of change ahead of us; I don’t know if everyone realises this.”
Pride of place in the catalogue of errors that increasingly defines public policy in Germany goes to energy strategy, which is a mass of contradictions and misjudgments.
As if determined to keep shooting itself in the foot, Germany last month closed the last three of its remaining nuclear power plants, thereby fulfilling an election pledge by the Greens, who hold the energy portfolio, and for whom the abolition of nuclear power is a long standing obsession verging on a religiously held belief.
While others are desperately trying to crank up their nuclear generation to meet net zero targets, Germany has gone haring off in the other direction and closed down some of the most efficient nuclear power plants in Europe.
This final act of stupidity comes hard on the heels of the shock of having to wean the nation off Russian gas supplies, addiction to which counts as another piece of genius in German energy policy, this one engineered by the Putin-loving former Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder.
There was at least one mistake which I suppose the Germans didn’t make. Unlike Britain, they didn’t dynamite their remaining coal fired power stations, so that there is at least some generating capacity to fill the gap left by Putin.
Yet to be closing down near zero-emitting nuclear plants while simultaneously reopening CO2 spewing coal plants? This can hardly be called environmentalism.
Mind you, Britain hardly looks a great deal better on that front.
Full post
2) Net Zero heating ban and expensive energy: German houses lose up to 30 percent in value
Deutsche Press Agentur, 2 June 2023
According to a new study, expensive energy and uncertainty about the planned heating law are leading to growing price reductions for houses with a poor energy balance.
The gap in the market value between very energy-efficient residential properties and buildings with a poor energy balance continues to widen, according to a new analysis by real estate specialist Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), for which around 5,000 offer data from apartment buildings were evaluated. Owners are threatened with price reductions of almost 30 percent at the top. The "Handelsblatt" had previously reported on it.
Full story (in German)
3) Cheap energy & low wages: Entire car industries will migrate to China
Focus Magazin, 2 June 2023
The gap in the market value between very energy-efficient residential properties and buildings with a poor energy balance continues to widen, according to a new analysis by real estate specialist Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), for which around 5,000 offer data from apartment buildings were evaluated. Owners are threatened with price reductions of almost 30 percent at the top. The "Handelsblatt" had previously reported on it.
Full story (in German)
3) Cheap energy & low wages: Entire car industries will migrate to China
Focus Magazin, 2 June 2023
China does not have nearly as ambitious climate laws as the EU - and thanks to cheap coal-fired electricity, low wages and a wealth of raw materials, it can also produce electric cars cheaply. The Chinese are using this advantage to roll up the car market from below.
Nio, Polestar, Lynk & Co - in the premium segment, many Chinese car brands have already competed against the established competition from Audi, Mercedes and Tesla in the EU. So far, however, only the MG brand has achieved relevant success in terms of sales figures, which tend to poach at the price level of Opel, VW or Hyundai.
But the real big attack is yet to come: cheap Chinese small cars, most of them electric, could fill the gaps left by established manufacturers. The EU policy of banning internal combustion engines from 2035 and increasing the price of new European cars due to ever new exhaust gas regulations is playing into the hands of the Chinese.
Full story (in German)
4) Green & declining: Germany loses trust in its future as the world’s automotive leader
EurActiv, 30 May 2023
Nio, Polestar, Lynk & Co - in the premium segment, many Chinese car brands have already competed against the established competition from Audi, Mercedes and Tesla in the EU. So far, however, only the MG brand has achieved relevant success in terms of sales figures, which tend to poach at the price level of Opel, VW or Hyundai.
But the real big attack is yet to come: cheap Chinese small cars, most of them electric, could fill the gaps left by established manufacturers. The EU policy of banning internal combustion engines from 2035 and increasing the price of new European cars due to ever new exhaust gas regulations is playing into the hands of the Chinese.
Full story (in German)
4) Green & declining: Germany loses trust in its future as the world’s automotive leader
EurActiv, 30 May 2023
Most Germans do not believe their country will be the leading location for car manufacturing in the future, according to a survey conducted by the German Association of Engineers.
Over the past months, news has come to the fore that raises questions about German dominance in the country’s most important branch of industry: car making.
Already in October last year, industry observers were concerned by a deal struck by German rental car company Sixt.
The rental company announced a long-term partnership, not with a German or European manufacturer, but with BYD, a Chinese carmaker. The deal included the purchase of 100,000 electric cars over the next years.
Rental companies are seen as crucial for manufacturers to enter new markets, as they buy large quantities of cars, providing planning certainty for the manufacturer and increasing its visibility on the streets.
Since then, news of Chinese carmakers such as BYD and NIO starting to sell their vehicles in European markets has raised further questions about the future of German manufacturers.
“Chinese cars are flooding Europe,” the headline of Germany’s biggest tabloid, BILD, read last week, citing the quickly increasing market shares of the new suppliers.
At the occasion of the Shanghai motor show in April, it also came to the attention of the German public that among the top ten electric models sold in China, the world’s biggest market for the car industry, none are from a German manufacturer.
Full story
5) After nuclear power shut-down, Germany will need more coal power next winter
Clean Energy Wire, 2 June 2023
Germany will likely need several lignite power units that had been brought back online from reserve during the energy crisis last year also for the coming winter, economy minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.
In view of the gas supply situation and the difficulties surrounding the installation of new LNG import infrastructure on the island of Rügen, the country will need additional capacities in winter, such as the eastern German lignite units, the Green Party minister said. “I expect that we will use them again in winter [2023/2024].”
During the energy crisis, Germany had decided to temporarily allow lignite power plants that had already been in a reserve to re-enter the market and produce electricity. The rules are currently scheduled to expire by the end of June, but could be extended by ministerial decree, Habeck said.
Full story
6) How Germans grew sick of the Greens
The Times, 1 June 2023
Its most pressing and obvious problem is the Greens' attempt to ban the installation of new oil and gas boilers in households from 2024.
Only a year ago, Robert Habeck, the novelist and poet tasked with ending Germany’s chronic addiction to Russian fossil fuels, was the pole star in the political firmament.
Animated, decisive and pragmatic, the Green party vice-chancellor addressed voter concerns head on in talk shows and shredded decades of German energy policy with ruthless aplomb.
For months on end he topped the popularity rankings. Der Spiegel magazine hailed him in a cover article as the “better chancellor” and the master of a new style of rhetoric that traded heavily on frankness about hard choices and pangs of self-doubt.
Now 50 per cent of the electorate want Habeck to resign. Comedians mock his pseudo-folksy manner, his leather-jacketed image and his contorted expressions on primetime television: “We Greens have learnt to grasp apparent opposites as constructive tensions”.
Out of Germany’s best-known politicians, only the leaders of the radical right and left are more widely disliked. It is a little like watching the rise and fall of Tony Blair in extreme fast-forward.
The German Greens are not in a happy place. Bruised by claims of nepotism at the highest levels of Habeck’s economics “super-ministry” and running into heavy resistance with its climate policies, the party has slipped back to fourth place in the polls, behind the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Its most pressing and obvious problem is Habeck’s attempt to ban the installation of new oil and gas boilers in households from 2024.
In theory the measure is not outlandish. Heating systems for buildings account for more than a quarter of the European Union’s energy consumption and there is obviously room for improvement. At least four of Germany’s neighbours have already all but eliminated fossil fuel-powered heating. Sweden started its transition from oil to district heating and heat pumps more than 30 years ago, cutting the sector’s carbon footprint by more than 95 per cent. Denmark followed suit in 2013. German officials estimate they could knock 1.2 per cent off the country’s CO2 emissions by doing the same.
Yet the looming cliff edge has caused consternation. About four million oil or gas-fired boilers will have to be replaced next year. Many owners worry about the €10,000 to €20,000 required to buy and install a heat pump, even with state subsidies that cover up to 40 per cent of the bill and extra incentives for those on low incomes.
Even those who have the necessary funds are liable to struggle with an acute shortage of heating technicians and a profusion of planning regulations. Others bristle at clauses that would allow the state to collect reams of data on household energy consumption through smart meters.
The opposition has described the plan as a “shameless” and unrealistic imposition. Even Habeck’s coalition partners no longer bother to conceal their disdain. The Social Democrats (SPD) have openly criticised the bill’s “one-sided” focus on heat pumps.
Asked whether Habeck could get the law through the Bundestag, one senior MP from the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) — another notional ally of the Greens — burst out laughing.
Full story
7) Christopher Chantrill: Dealing with the upcoming climate failure blame game
American Thinker, 30 May 2023
Over the past months, news has come to the fore that raises questions about German dominance in the country’s most important branch of industry: car making.
Already in October last year, industry observers were concerned by a deal struck by German rental car company Sixt.
The rental company announced a long-term partnership, not with a German or European manufacturer, but with BYD, a Chinese carmaker. The deal included the purchase of 100,000 electric cars over the next years.
Rental companies are seen as crucial for manufacturers to enter new markets, as they buy large quantities of cars, providing planning certainty for the manufacturer and increasing its visibility on the streets.
Since then, news of Chinese carmakers such as BYD and NIO starting to sell their vehicles in European markets has raised further questions about the future of German manufacturers.
“Chinese cars are flooding Europe,” the headline of Germany’s biggest tabloid, BILD, read last week, citing the quickly increasing market shares of the new suppliers.
At the occasion of the Shanghai motor show in April, it also came to the attention of the German public that among the top ten electric models sold in China, the world’s biggest market for the car industry, none are from a German manufacturer.
Full story
5) After nuclear power shut-down, Germany will need more coal power next winter
Clean Energy Wire, 2 June 2023
Germany will likely need several lignite power units that had been brought back online from reserve during the energy crisis last year also for the coming winter, economy minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.
In view of the gas supply situation and the difficulties surrounding the installation of new LNG import infrastructure on the island of Rügen, the country will need additional capacities in winter, such as the eastern German lignite units, the Green Party minister said. “I expect that we will use them again in winter [2023/2024].”
During the energy crisis, Germany had decided to temporarily allow lignite power plants that had already been in a reserve to re-enter the market and produce electricity. The rules are currently scheduled to expire by the end of June, but could be extended by ministerial decree, Habeck said.
Full story
6) How Germans grew sick of the Greens
The Times, 1 June 2023
Its most pressing and obvious problem is the Greens' attempt to ban the installation of new oil and gas boilers in households from 2024.
Only a year ago, Robert Habeck, the novelist and poet tasked with ending Germany’s chronic addiction to Russian fossil fuels, was the pole star in the political firmament.
Animated, decisive and pragmatic, the Green party vice-chancellor addressed voter concerns head on in talk shows and shredded decades of German energy policy with ruthless aplomb.
For months on end he topped the popularity rankings. Der Spiegel magazine hailed him in a cover article as the “better chancellor” and the master of a new style of rhetoric that traded heavily on frankness about hard choices and pangs of self-doubt.
Now 50 per cent of the electorate want Habeck to resign. Comedians mock his pseudo-folksy manner, his leather-jacketed image and his contorted expressions on primetime television: “We Greens have learnt to grasp apparent opposites as constructive tensions”.
Out of Germany’s best-known politicians, only the leaders of the radical right and left are more widely disliked. It is a little like watching the rise and fall of Tony Blair in extreme fast-forward.
The German Greens are not in a happy place. Bruised by claims of nepotism at the highest levels of Habeck’s economics “super-ministry” and running into heavy resistance with its climate policies, the party has slipped back to fourth place in the polls, behind the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Its most pressing and obvious problem is Habeck’s attempt to ban the installation of new oil and gas boilers in households from 2024.
In theory the measure is not outlandish. Heating systems for buildings account for more than a quarter of the European Union’s energy consumption and there is obviously room for improvement. At least four of Germany’s neighbours have already all but eliminated fossil fuel-powered heating. Sweden started its transition from oil to district heating and heat pumps more than 30 years ago, cutting the sector’s carbon footprint by more than 95 per cent. Denmark followed suit in 2013. German officials estimate they could knock 1.2 per cent off the country’s CO2 emissions by doing the same.
Yet the looming cliff edge has caused consternation. About four million oil or gas-fired boilers will have to be replaced next year. Many owners worry about the €10,000 to €20,000 required to buy and install a heat pump, even with state subsidies that cover up to 40 per cent of the bill and extra incentives for those on low incomes.
Even those who have the necessary funds are liable to struggle with an acute shortage of heating technicians and a profusion of planning regulations. Others bristle at clauses that would allow the state to collect reams of data on household energy consumption through smart meters.
The opposition has described the plan as a “shameless” and unrealistic imposition. Even Habeck’s coalition partners no longer bother to conceal their disdain. The Social Democrats (SPD) have openly criticised the bill’s “one-sided” focus on heat pumps.
Asked whether Habeck could get the law through the Bundestag, one senior MP from the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) — another notional ally of the Greens — burst out laughing.
Full story
7) Christopher Chantrill: Dealing with the upcoming climate failure blame game
American Thinker, 30 May 2023
As Net Zero costs soar and mandates kick in, the climate blame game begins
What do we do about the climate madness? That’s the issue that Lord Frost addressed in a recent speech to the Global Warming Policy Foundation in Britain.
Short answer: not much, not yet. But there is hope.
Frost reckons that the governments in Europe are “beginning to get cold feet” on their climate agendas:
"I actually sense our own Government is beginning to realise that the economics are more doubtful than the Net Zero proponents argue. If, as some commentators say, our Prime Minister is beginning to get worried by the costs of Net Zero, we can only welcome that."
Then he notes that support for the Net Zero policy is starting to fall with “incipient questioning of Net Zero measures across Europe” as climate change policies start to bite.
"The most strongly supported measures are those which most people probably believe would not affect them — changes in pension fund investment rules and frequent flyer levies — while support for phasing out gas boilers has halved and support for EV subsidies is now only slightly positive."
Frequent flyer levies? How about a tax on NGO employees and lefty billionaires flying private?
Unfortunately, politicians in the West “actively prefer to live in complete cognitive dissonance” rather than think about anything.
And probably the political system will select “lifestyle change to save the planet, the politicization of everyday lifestyle choices, the emphasis on living local and sustainability.”
The only thing that Frost can recommend is to be ready for the step change.
"The job of those who are willing to question the rush to Net Zero is to see this crunch moment coming and to start to get the politics ready."
The point is, Frost realizes, that the COVID pandemic showed us how government and public opinion work.
Once the government launches a narrative and gets everyone on board, it can’t reverse course, and can’t admit mistakes. The narrative continues until the world blows up, and the marginal supporters desert the colors.
Maybe the climate blow-up is coming sooner than we think.
I suppose in every political cycle there is: first, the looming crisis, second the identification of the enemy; third, the call to arms. If the war proceeds to victory, then the regime is secure in power. If the war ends in defeat, then the regime will try to blame its internal opposition -- the "climate deniers," or the "anti-vaxxers." -- like the "saboteurs and wreckers" blamed by Stalin, and the "Four Olds," old customs, culture, habits, and ideas that Mao blamed for everything.
In other words, in the face of defeat, the regime blames someone else, anyone else, for its failure. Then, the only question is how long the regime survives as it purges its opposition, real and imagined.
In the case of the failed French Revolution, the Reign of Terror was followed pretty quickly by Napoleon. In the case of the failed Stalinist Five Year Plans, the Great Purge was followed by victory in the Great Patriotic War and the regime survived for 45 more years. In the case of The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, the Maoist regime was replaced soon after his death, but President Xi has since revived the Monarchist Dictator model.
Full post
Lord Frost: 2023 Annual GWPF Lecture - “Not dark yet, but it’s getting there”
What do we do about the climate madness? That’s the issue that Lord Frost addressed in a recent speech to the Global Warming Policy Foundation in Britain.
Short answer: not much, not yet. But there is hope.
Frost reckons that the governments in Europe are “beginning to get cold feet” on their climate agendas:
"I actually sense our own Government is beginning to realise that the economics are more doubtful than the Net Zero proponents argue. If, as some commentators say, our Prime Minister is beginning to get worried by the costs of Net Zero, we can only welcome that."
Then he notes that support for the Net Zero policy is starting to fall with “incipient questioning of Net Zero measures across Europe” as climate change policies start to bite.
"The most strongly supported measures are those which most people probably believe would not affect them — changes in pension fund investment rules and frequent flyer levies — while support for phasing out gas boilers has halved and support for EV subsidies is now only slightly positive."
Frequent flyer levies? How about a tax on NGO employees and lefty billionaires flying private?
Unfortunately, politicians in the West “actively prefer to live in complete cognitive dissonance” rather than think about anything.
And probably the political system will select “lifestyle change to save the planet, the politicization of everyday lifestyle choices, the emphasis on living local and sustainability.”
The only thing that Frost can recommend is to be ready for the step change.
"The job of those who are willing to question the rush to Net Zero is to see this crunch moment coming and to start to get the politics ready."
The point is, Frost realizes, that the COVID pandemic showed us how government and public opinion work.
Once the government launches a narrative and gets everyone on board, it can’t reverse course, and can’t admit mistakes. The narrative continues until the world blows up, and the marginal supporters desert the colors.
Maybe the climate blow-up is coming sooner than we think.
I suppose in every political cycle there is: first, the looming crisis, second the identification of the enemy; third, the call to arms. If the war proceeds to victory, then the regime is secure in power. If the war ends in defeat, then the regime will try to blame its internal opposition -- the "climate deniers," or the "anti-vaxxers." -- like the "saboteurs and wreckers" blamed by Stalin, and the "Four Olds," old customs, culture, habits, and ideas that Mao blamed for everything.
In other words, in the face of defeat, the regime blames someone else, anyone else, for its failure. Then, the only question is how long the regime survives as it purges its opposition, real and imagined.
In the case of the failed French Revolution, the Reign of Terror was followed pretty quickly by Napoleon. In the case of the failed Stalinist Five Year Plans, the Great Purge was followed by victory in the Great Patriotic War and the regime survived for 45 more years. In the case of The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, the Maoist regime was replaced soon after his death, but President Xi has since revived the Monarchist Dictator model.
Full post
Lord Frost: 2023 Annual GWPF Lecture - “Not dark yet, but it’s getting there”
8) Cost concerns push green agenda down the priority list for businesses
Energy Live News, 1 June 2023
Energy Live News, 1 June 2023
Over half of SMEs cite the inability to prioritise green practices due to core expenses, according to a new survey
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the UK are deprioritising green initiatives due to increasing expenses.
The research, conducted by Europe’s small business lender iwoca suggests more than half of the surveyed SMEs (54%) acknowledge the importance of environmental issues but find it challenging to prioritise them over running their businesses.
With core inflation rates at their highest in 31 years, businesses across the country are struggling to make environmentally friendly measures a priority.
According to Oxford Economics, SMEs contribute 44% of the UK’s non-household carbon dioxide emissions, emitting an estimated 160 million tonnes of greenhouse gases.
The study reveals that 42% of SMEs believe that the rising costs of doing business have made going green less important.
Full story
9) Jamie Blackett: Ireland’s mooted cow massacre is a warning to net zero Britain
The Daily Telegraph, 2 June 2023
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the UK are deprioritising green initiatives due to increasing expenses.
The research, conducted by Europe’s small business lender iwoca suggests more than half of the surveyed SMEs (54%) acknowledge the importance of environmental issues but find it challenging to prioritise them over running their businesses.
With core inflation rates at their highest in 31 years, businesses across the country are struggling to make environmentally friendly measures a priority.
According to Oxford Economics, SMEs contribute 44% of the UK’s non-household carbon dioxide emissions, emitting an estimated 160 million tonnes of greenhouse gases.
The study reveals that 42% of SMEs believe that the rising costs of doing business have made going green less important.
Full story
9) Jamie Blackett: Ireland’s mooted cow massacre is a warning to net zero Britain
The Daily Telegraph, 2 June 2023
The Irish government is reportedly looking at plans to cull around 200,000 dairy cows to meet its climate targets. It's madness
The collateral damage of net zero is now getting uncomfortably close to home. First Dutch farmers were threatened with compulsory purchases to satisfy EU emissions targets, fomenting a new revolt in the process.
Now it’s Ireland’s turn, where the government is reportedly looking at plans to cull around 200,000 cows to meet its climate targets. The scheme would be a bit like voluntary redundancy, with farmers offered financial inducements to give up their cows.
British beef and dairy farmers are now very jittery. It seems increasingly clear that there is an eco-modernist agenda to do away with conventional meat altogether. It’s not just the Extinction Rebellion mob, either; many of the world’s politicians are on board.
It’s very fortunate we’re out of the EU or we could be facing the same pressure from Brussels. Now, we can only hope that Rishi Sunak, who represents a heavily rural constituency in the Yorkshire Dales, understands what’s at stake for farming communities.
Spending vast sums of taxpayer’s money on destroying productive animals would be a perfect summation of the net zero madness infecting the West. The Irish Department of Agriculture has said that the report was just a “modelling document”, but no sane government would even get to the point of including such a plan in “a deliberative process”. Why? Because it is irrational.
Dutch and Irish politicians have failed to recognise that regenerative farming techniques allow livestock farmers to help mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon in the soil. The technology needed to measure soil carbon accurately has recently been developed by a British company, Ecometric. The results are startling. Some British livestock farmers are now being paid for the net carbon sequestered into the soils after the methane from their burping cows has been accounted for. It would mean changing the way we farm to embrace holistic methods; mainly replacing cereal-based cattle diets with grass, but it can be done.
Full post
10) Sen Mike Crapo: Biden's green energy tax breaks hurt America and help China
Fox News, 1 June 2023
The collateral damage of net zero is now getting uncomfortably close to home. First Dutch farmers were threatened with compulsory purchases to satisfy EU emissions targets, fomenting a new revolt in the process.
Now it’s Ireland’s turn, where the government is reportedly looking at plans to cull around 200,000 cows to meet its climate targets. The scheme would be a bit like voluntary redundancy, with farmers offered financial inducements to give up their cows.
British beef and dairy farmers are now very jittery. It seems increasingly clear that there is an eco-modernist agenda to do away with conventional meat altogether. It’s not just the Extinction Rebellion mob, either; many of the world’s politicians are on board.
It’s very fortunate we’re out of the EU or we could be facing the same pressure from Brussels. Now, we can only hope that Rishi Sunak, who represents a heavily rural constituency in the Yorkshire Dales, understands what’s at stake for farming communities.
Spending vast sums of taxpayer’s money on destroying productive animals would be a perfect summation of the net zero madness infecting the West. The Irish Department of Agriculture has said that the report was just a “modelling document”, but no sane government would even get to the point of including such a plan in “a deliberative process”. Why? Because it is irrational.
Dutch and Irish politicians have failed to recognise that regenerative farming techniques allow livestock farmers to help mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon in the soil. The technology needed to measure soil carbon accurately has recently been developed by a British company, Ecometric. The results are startling. Some British livestock farmers are now being paid for the net carbon sequestered into the soils after the methane from their burping cows has been accounted for. It would mean changing the way we farm to embrace holistic methods; mainly replacing cereal-based cattle diets with grass, but it can be done.
Full post
10) Sen Mike Crapo: Biden's green energy tax breaks hurt America and help China
Fox News, 1 June 2023
President Biden said during a Thursday press conference that he makes "no apology" for the Inflation Reduction Act but acknowledged "glitches" with the law, which has been criticized by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle have long recognized the need to reform our energy tax laws. But rather than work on stakeholder-informed, bipartisan energy tax policies that would support a technology-neutral approach, Democrats pursued a partisan path through their misnamed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Republicans warned that the IRA would take us down a dangerous, fiscally irresponsible path to provide ever-ballooning subsidies, antagonize allies and, ironically, reward the very industries that are reliant on China. Unfortunately, what we warned of has come to pass, leaving Americans to deal with the fallout of these predicted consequences:
Soaring Costs:
One consequence is the cost, which keeps rocketing upward by hundreds of billions of dollars. Cost estimates for the IRA’s energy tax incentives have increased markedly since the enactment of the law. Penn Wharton’s Budget Model originally estimated the climate and energy provisions in the IRA would cost nearly $385 billion. After new implementation details emerged, Penn Wharton revised the model, estimating the climate and energy provisions would actually cost upward of $1 trillion.
Spending on clean cars and trucks alone is now estimated to cost $393 billion over 10 years--more than the original estimate for the entirety of the IRA’s energy and climate-related provisions.
Inflation Driver, Not Reducer:
While many have focused on the fact the IRA is not forecasted to actually reduce inflation (indeed, Federal Reserve data on stubbornly-high electricity and fuel prices validate these concerns), some have persuasively argued it will actually fuel inflation. Their argument is that existing (and likely future) raw materials--both critical minerals, and metals like copper and aluminum--are insufficient to meet forecasted resource demand as the IRA forces a transition to an electricity-focused future. These supplies cannot be rapidly scaled up, whether at home or abroad.
As more money chases constrained raw material supplies, costs will increase. Given that many goods Americans use are also made from these materials, cost increases will ripple through the economy.
Strained Relationships:
A strain on America’s trade relationships with allies is another predicted consequence. To mitigate our partners’ anger on electric vehicles tax credits, the Biden administration usurped congressional authority by redefining the long-understood concept of a market-oriented "free trade agreement" to now include agreements that fail to open any markets for American workers. Not only have these executive agreements caused significant foreign trade disputes with our allies, but they have also sparked bipartisan backlash from members of Congress.
Disadvantages American Production:
The rushed, disjointed policies at the heart of the IRA’s provisions have put American companies and consumers at a disadvantage. The Biden administration has resorted to unilaterally walking back and diluting key guardrails at every opportunity. Each move supports manufacturing jobs overseas and cedes additional control of our supply chains to foreign competitors, as even some of my colleagues across the aisle have acknowledged.
Domestic supplies of critical minerals that are eligible for the credit are particularly insufficient to meet anticipated demand. While the IRA includes incentives to re-shore the production and refining of critical minerals, foreign actors--particularly China--have a significantly entrenched dominance in the area. Faster regulatory and permitting approval is necessary to reduce the barriers for investments in critical minerals in the U.S., and will have a far greater impact than any IRA incentive.
Advantages China:
While many U.S. companies and consumers are at a disadvantage under the new green energy regime, there is one clear winner: China. Given China’s dominant position in numerous aspects of the alternative energy ecosphere, any green energy tax incentives that do not explicitly prevent claimants from involving China in any aspect of the particular supply chain will benefit China.
In China, economies of scale, supply chains and first-mover advantages ensure that for the foreseeable future, most of America’s green energy growth will be originating from the one place the IRA claims it should not. Gaping loopholes in the bill, like the "leasing exception" for EVs, as well as expansive regulatory guidance that undercuts key legislative guardrails will enable Chinese minerals, materials and entities to qualify for IRA subsidies reinforce America’s dependence on China for alternative energy. Meanwhile, the administration’s rules and guidance may potentially exclude domestic players who are connected to traditional energy sources.
Full post
11) Arnold Schwarzenegger laments ‘No one gives a s—t’ about climate change'
Breitbart, 1 June 2023
Breitbart, 1 June 2023
Climate crusader Arnold Schwarzenegger is urging a rebranding of global warming as “pollution” to generate more intense fear among the general population.
“As long as they keep talking about global climate change, they are not gonna go anywhere,” Schwarzenegger said in an interview this week on CBS’ Sunday Morning. “Cause no one gives a shit about that.”
“So my thing is, let’s go and rephrase this and communicate differently about it and really tell people — we’re talking about pollution. Pollution creates climate change, and pollution kills,” the actor and former California governor added.
Schwarzenegger is not the first to spot the need to intensify climate change rhetoric if people are going to be to frightened into action.
“As long as they keep talking about global climate change, they are not gonna go anywhere,” Schwarzenegger said in an interview this week on CBS’ Sunday Morning. “Cause no one gives a shit about that.”
“So my thing is, let’s go and rephrase this and communicate differently about it and really tell people — we’re talking about pollution. Pollution creates climate change, and pollution kills,” the actor and former California governor added.
Schwarzenegger is not the first to spot the need to intensify climate change rhetoric if people are going to be to frightened into action.
12) And finally: New study reveals ice around Antarctica’s Thwaites ‘Doomsday’ Glacier was eight times thinner around 8,000 years ago
The Daily Sceptic, 2 June 2023
The Daily Sceptic, 2 June 2023
Sensational new scientific findings at a site on the West Antarctica ice sheet near the Thwaites ’Doomsday’ Glacier indicate that current ice levels are up to eight times thicker than they were around 8,000 years ago.
A group of 13 scientists led by Greg Balco of the Berkeley Geochronology Centre carried out extensive field work in the Amundsen Sea Embayment between the Thwaites and Pope glaciers and found current thickness levels of 40 metres compared with measurements in the recent past ranging from 2-7m. The work is of major importance since it casts new light on the cycles of ice production and loss that have always occurred in an area riddled with buried volcanoes.
The scientists noted that “subglacial bedrock exposure” analysis gives “direct, unambiguous evidence for ice thinning and subsequent thickening of at least 35m during the past several thousand years”. Furthermore, the work shows that ice thinning is a natural process that is reversible. It is noted that this is an important finding given the concerns that ice sheet thinning at the nearby glaciers including Thwaites may lead to significant deglaciation across the West Antarctica ice sheet, and subsequent sea level rise.
The scientists also refer to evidence from other field work that shows rapid early and middle Holocene ice thinning up to around 7,000 years ago throughout the Amundsen sea area. In addition, they found that there was no evidence to suggest that the ice has been thicker than its present levels for over 4,000 years. Record recent highs no less – hold the front page, or maybe not!
It is almost certain that these findings will be ignored in the mainstream media where the political requirements of ‘settled’ science have led to an effective ban on the discussion of natural geological influences on the climate. Antarctica is a difficult area to drum up climate alarm about since warming has been “nearly non-existent” over the last seven decades of recorded history. Changes around the massive Thwaites glacier are one of the key poster stories designed to spread global climate fear, and promote the solution of the collectivist Net Zero project.
The above graph from the recent Singh and Polvani paper shows recent warming only in the west of the continent. Of course, it begs the question for those who attribute all climate change to humans burning fossil fuel – why would a well-mixed atmospheric gas like carbon dioxide produce just one warming spot in Antarctica, and have no effect over the rest of the ice-covered continent? A more plausible explanation for the localised warming is the presence of volcanoes, particularly in the light of the recent discovery of an additional 91 of them in the region. In total, there are 138 identified volcanoes in the West Antarctica Rift System, with heights ranging from 300 to 12,600 ft.
The No Tricks Zone science site adds to the discussion by noting that while the Earth’s crust has an average thickness of 40 km, the Thwaites-Pine Island-Pope glacier region has a thinner covering between 10-18 kms, exposing the base of the ice to 580C tectonic trenches. NTZ references work in Dziadek et al (2021) that the “elevated geothermal heat flow band” is exerting a “profound influence on the flow dynamics of the Western Antarctica Ice Sheet”.
Full post
A group of 13 scientists led by Greg Balco of the Berkeley Geochronology Centre carried out extensive field work in the Amundsen Sea Embayment between the Thwaites and Pope glaciers and found current thickness levels of 40 metres compared with measurements in the recent past ranging from 2-7m. The work is of major importance since it casts new light on the cycles of ice production and loss that have always occurred in an area riddled with buried volcanoes.
The scientists noted that “subglacial bedrock exposure” analysis gives “direct, unambiguous evidence for ice thinning and subsequent thickening of at least 35m during the past several thousand years”. Furthermore, the work shows that ice thinning is a natural process that is reversible. It is noted that this is an important finding given the concerns that ice sheet thinning at the nearby glaciers including Thwaites may lead to significant deglaciation across the West Antarctica ice sheet, and subsequent sea level rise.
The scientists also refer to evidence from other field work that shows rapid early and middle Holocene ice thinning up to around 7,000 years ago throughout the Amundsen sea area. In addition, they found that there was no evidence to suggest that the ice has been thicker than its present levels for over 4,000 years. Record recent highs no less – hold the front page, or maybe not!
It is almost certain that these findings will be ignored in the mainstream media where the political requirements of ‘settled’ science have led to an effective ban on the discussion of natural geological influences on the climate. Antarctica is a difficult area to drum up climate alarm about since warming has been “nearly non-existent” over the last seven decades of recorded history. Changes around the massive Thwaites glacier are one of the key poster stories designed to spread global climate fear, and promote the solution of the collectivist Net Zero project.
The above graph from the recent Singh and Polvani paper shows recent warming only in the west of the continent. Of course, it begs the question for those who attribute all climate change to humans burning fossil fuel – why would a well-mixed atmospheric gas like carbon dioxide produce just one warming spot in Antarctica, and have no effect over the rest of the ice-covered continent? A more plausible explanation for the localised warming is the presence of volcanoes, particularly in the light of the recent discovery of an additional 91 of them in the region. In total, there are 138 identified volcanoes in the West Antarctica Rift System, with heights ranging from 300 to 12,600 ft.
The No Tricks Zone science site adds to the discussion by noting that while the Earth’s crust has an average thickness of 40 km, the Thwaites-Pine Island-Pope glacier region has a thinner covering between 10-18 kms, exposing the base of the ice to 580C tectonic trenches. NTZ references work in Dziadek et al (2021) that the “elevated geothermal heat flow band” is exerting a “profound influence on the flow dynamics of the Western Antarctica Ice Sheet”.
Full post
The London-based Net Zero Watch is a campaign group set up to highlight and discuss the serious implications of expensive and poorly considered climate change policies. The Net Zero Watch newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.netzerowatch.com.
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