Two more political polls came out this week both telling pretty much the same story.
The Labour government is gone and Christopher Luxon will lead a National and Act coalition after October 14.
A newcomer to the political research scene here, the Guardian Essential Poll has National and Act together on just over 45 percent while Labour, Greens and Te Pati Maori are on 40.
In the Taxpayers Union - Curia poll National and Act are on 48 while the coalition of the left combines for 41.5.
But here’s the rub. New Zealand First is at 5.3 in the Guardian poll and 5.8 in the Taxpayers Union survey. The trend has been up for Winston Peters and his party for a few weeks now and two polls in two days say they’re back and barring serious missteps they will be in Parliament again by the end of the year.
They probably won’t be in government or in Cabinet unless David Seymour has a complete change of heart. That’s looking increasingly unlikely considering the attack he’s putting on Winston through big billboards in Auckland and Wellington.
But have the pollsters or the commentators stopped to think about where Winston’s surge in support might be anchored?
I reckon it’s from the freedom and anti-mandate movement that is becoming so sizeable mainstream media disregards it at their peril.
The protestors in Wellington last year haven’t forgotten that not one current Member of Parliament came to talk with them during the occupation. For many in the protest, and their families, there is deep cynicism bordering on outright disgust at the attitude shown by MPs to the protestors last year.
However they haven’t forgotten who came among them .
It was Winston. He didn’t stay long but he was there. He made an impact.
Now he’s promising that if and when he gets back to Parliament he will push for a full and proper inquiry into the Covid 19 response including the impact of the vaccine on individuals.
That’s where so much of his support is coming from and the huge surge for New Zealand First has Act worried – hence the billboards.
Act could have had that vote themselves but Seymour’s attitude at Parliament last year and his subsequent statements and behaviour have disillusioned many of those mandated out of a job or who are injured, possibly because of the coercion put on them to be jabbed.
Winston is hoovering up this support and that’s why the Democracy NZ movement looks out the back door.
However the question now is – if New Zealand First are back will they be in any position of influence to push their case on behalf of the anti-mandate movement?
Peter Williams was a writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Peter blogs regularly on Peter’s Substack where this article was sourced.
In the Taxpayers Union - Curia poll National and Act are on 48 while the coalition of the left combines for 41.5.
But here’s the rub. New Zealand First is at 5.3 in the Guardian poll and 5.8 in the Taxpayers Union survey. The trend has been up for Winston Peters and his party for a few weeks now and two polls in two days say they’re back and barring serious missteps they will be in Parliament again by the end of the year.
They probably won’t be in government or in Cabinet unless David Seymour has a complete change of heart. That’s looking increasingly unlikely considering the attack he’s putting on Winston through big billboards in Auckland and Wellington.
But have the pollsters or the commentators stopped to think about where Winston’s surge in support might be anchored?
I reckon it’s from the freedom and anti-mandate movement that is becoming so sizeable mainstream media disregards it at their peril.
The protestors in Wellington last year haven’t forgotten that not one current Member of Parliament came to talk with them during the occupation. For many in the protest, and their families, there is deep cynicism bordering on outright disgust at the attitude shown by MPs to the protestors last year.
However they haven’t forgotten who came among them .
It was Winston. He didn’t stay long but he was there. He made an impact.
Now he’s promising that if and when he gets back to Parliament he will push for a full and proper inquiry into the Covid 19 response including the impact of the vaccine on individuals.
That’s where so much of his support is coming from and the huge surge for New Zealand First has Act worried – hence the billboards.
Act could have had that vote themselves but Seymour’s attitude at Parliament last year and his subsequent statements and behaviour have disillusioned many of those mandated out of a job or who are injured, possibly because of the coercion put on them to be jabbed.
Winston is hoovering up this support and that’s why the Democracy NZ movement looks out the back door.
However the question now is – if New Zealand First are back will they be in any position of influence to push their case on behalf of the anti-mandate movement?
Peter Williams was a writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Peter blogs regularly on Peter’s Substack where this article was sourced.
6 comments:
NZFirst can be expected to take a firm stand on the need for debate and a referendum over co-governance/He Puapua. This is essential.
Mr Luxon does not think this process is " necessary". Mr Seymour strongly advocates this - but, if the minority partner in a coalition, he may have to cede on this point.
Mr Peters could be a strong ally on this matter.... if they agree to work together.
NZers must demand that this debate takes place - it is their country and future.
Fool me once!!!
Seymour got this wrong and needs to let a democratic process go forward. The final numbers will decide who talks to who and who gets to promote policies they stand for.
The new Government has a monumental size mess to clean up. Businesses go about this by appointing a “ hatchet man”. Winston is more than capable of performing this role. Luxon keeps his hands clean and is left to grow the economy. Done deal!
I remember becoming disillusioned with Seymour during the protests. If he'd had the courage to go talk to them he'd probably have more votes for Act than National now. Poor form. Perhaps I should get fooled again.
I resigned from ACT party membership over Davis Seymours comments and stance on NZ First. Fact is NZ First has policy's that mirror or are more to the right of ACTs. The big "but" with NZ First is that a lot of those who previously put him in parliament will never forgive his decision to go with Saint Jacinda, and rightly so but remember it was National because of their refusal to enter into a coalition with Peters and ironically chose the Maori party instead who drove him to Labour.
This time Peters has listened and said " no" to any coalition with Labour.
As a former senior manager I quickly learned that having to work with others for a greater good was sometimes necessary regardless of weather you "liked" them or not. Seymour and Luxon could do well to remember this because if NZ First gets a few MPs in parliament they could well hold the balance of power.
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