Pages

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Point of Order: New finance minister gets to work as the economy needs a fresh stimulus: will her mini-budget do the job?



The business of forming a government and putting new Cabinet ministers to work seems unduly ponderous — incoming prime minister Christopher Luxon has yet to have a roundtable talk with coalition partners David Seymour and Winston Peters But at least one of the key personalities in the Luxon team, incoming Finance Minister Nicola Willis, is reported to be beavering away on her initial tasks, as well as recruiting staff for her Beehive office.

Willis, of course, has plenty of experience of the Beehive, having worked as a staffer for Bill English and then John Key in previous National-led governments. She will be conscious that some of her first policy work as Minister of Finance could put a stamp on the Luxon government and shape the response it gets from voters.
 
For her Beehive office she has already recruited Nick Ventner, a longtime Press Gallery and Beehive worker among others. He has a wide range of contacts in the news media.

The speculation has centred on her bringing down an early mini-budget, even pre-Christmas, though it would be equally effective early in the New Year. It will be difficult because the previous government had committed to so much spending.

Almost certainly Willis will find some of the government expenditure has been wasted: the critical issue will be to decide which items are necessary, which can be jettisoned, and which programmes can be curtailed.

Already the lists of spending in front of Willis are said to be horrendous.

Whether the funding to be saved from those will be enough to cover the tax cut package Willis is framing is the moot question.

The new Finance Minister, as she is working on these initial issues, will be attentive to what leaders of the business and agriculture sectors have been calling for — not just to deliver a tax package and straighten out the government finances, but to bring inflation under control and restore business confidence. Social services aren’t delivering and there is a growing infrastructure deficit.

Some observers contend the new Finance Minister’s primary task is to pull NZ back from recession. But that is an all-of-government job.

Willis’ first issue in this context may be to restore a single focus to the Reserve Bank: inflation.

At the same time she will be aware of the urgency to maintain the confidence of the ratings agencies, particularly as NZ has been running one of the largest deficits in its external accounts. At every step of the way Willis has to keep the ratings where they are as she works to strengthen government accounts.

At a simple level, that calls for a Government focused on delivering policies that rebuild confidence in the economy and that encourage investment, innovation and entrepreneurship.

Business leaders and those in the farming sector are eager to work with the government in driving the economic turnaround and achieve the productivity gains that are essential to lift living standards.

In her oversight of the economy Willis will be aware of the requirement on government to lift investment in technology, skills, services and manufacturing capability. Not only that but to achieve higher export returns, the country needs investment in distribution, market coverage and product development.

Willis knows there are some immediate investment pools she can target. Investor migrants have made a significant and positive impact on NZ businesses, bringing dollars, enterprise, experience and global contacts.

Unfortunately, NZ closed the border to these migrants during Covid, stalling applications valued at billions of dollars in the Immigration NZ pipeline. The business experience and contacts these investors bring can help emerging Kiwi businesses to compete internationally.

Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thanks for engaging in the debate!

Because this is a public forum, we will only publish comments that are respectful and do NOT contain links to other sites. We appreciate your cooperation.