Below are Stuff's 10 predictions for 2024, along with my comments on them. They normally do 20:
1. An Opposition leader will resign. After the election, each leader kept their positions – despite the change of government. As the new order settles in, someone – be that Chris Hipkins, Marama Davidson or James Shaw – will resign.
DPF: Agree, and I predicted Shaw will be the one that goes.
2. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will hit the sky, leading diplomatic and trade delegations to India, the US, and Pacific islands.
DPF: Inconsequential but probably right.
3. The Government will re-engage with the World Health Organisation's regulation updates, which new zealand had been closely aligned with. For reasons unexplained, Luxon agreed to “reserve against” these soon-to-be-refreshed public health protocols in NZ First's coalition agreement. Such reservations will be short-lived, given outright rejection of these updates would attract international and local ridicule.
DPF: We will make reservations but they will be nothing big.
4. Leaning into life on the Opposition benches, Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick will become increasingly outspoken in the House. The Speaker will kick out Auckland Central's MP at least once in 2024.
DPF: Probably as she chants her normal pro-genocide slogan against Israel.
5. Finance Minister Nicola Willis will make another so-called “gaffe” in the House, following on from previous hits such as “how big is his hole” and declaring the “size of the sausage” matters.
DPF: I hope so.
6. Following the January 20 hui with the Kīngitanga, sizeable protests will arrive at Parliament and at Waitangi as Parliament resumes and as Christopher Luxon heads north for his first Waitangi Day as prime minister.
DPF: There will be protests almost non-stop for the next three years as the activists don't like the policies the governing parties won election on.
7. The Government will deliver tax cuts in July, but the scale of those cuts will not be as large as was promised at the election. National will point to its coalition deal with NZ First, kyboshing the foreign buyers' tax, and Labour's so-called “fiscal cliffs” for the more modest tax relief.
DPF: Disagree. I think they will be the same quantum.
8. House price growth will exceed the 5.3% forecast by the Treasury in December, growing by at least 7.5% in the year to June 2024.
DPF: Good prediction and more likely than not.
9. When the Green Party holds its AGM and the co-leadership positions fall vacant, there will be a serious challenge or call from members for a new co-leader to take the (shared) reins.
DPF: It will be Chloe to replace James and then at a later AGM Tamatha to replace Marama.
10. Local Government Minister Simeon Brown will appoint commissioners to take over the management of a city or regional council, which will fall into disarray due to failing infrastructure and economic mismanagement.
DPF: So many worthy candidates!
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.
3 comments:
Anyone still reading STUFF is part of the problem.
Prediction 11: Stuff will cease to exist.
Cut all MSM tax payer funding and see how long they last.
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