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For the decided party vote, National is down 0.3 points on last month’s poll to 37.1% while Labour improves marginally to 25.7% (+0.4 points). The Greens jump up by another 3.3 points taking them to 14.6%, while ACT drop even further back to 7.2% (-2.8 points).
The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.3% (-1.1 points) and Te Pati Maori on 4.6% (+2.1% points).
For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.6%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.5%, Democracy NZ on 0.3%, Vision NZ is on 0.2%, New Conservatives on 0.2%, and the rest combined making up the remaining 0.8%.
5.6% of voters were undecided after probing.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll
National is down 1 seat on last month to 47 while Labour is unchanged on 32. The Greens jump up to 15 seats (up four) while act drop back to 13 (down four). NZ First drop 1 seat to 9 while Te Pati Maori is unchanged on 6 seats.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have no overhang seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 64 seats is down 6 from last month while the Centre-Left is up 3 seats to 56.
On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll
Christopher Luxon continues to slide in the net favourability stakes. While this may not be a concern at the moment, if it continues he will be the one holding National back and Nat MPs will start looking askance at Luxon. On the plus side, Chris Hipkins’s support has cratered too:
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Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is down 2 points on last month to -7% while Chris Hipkins’s score is down 8 points to -6%. This is the first time a Labour Leader has had a negative net favourability in the Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll.
David Seymour is down 3 points to -11% while Winston Peters is down 6 points to -18%.
This month we also asked respondents about their views on National Party Minister Chris Bishop who had a net favourability of -4% and new Green Party Leader Chloe Swarbrick who had a net favourability of -19%.
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll
A mixed-bag poll there, but we aren’t too far away from the budget (30 May), so let’s see what that delivers for the coalition.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.
2 comments:
My concern is that, whilst it is great to see so many make work jobs terminated (hopefully including the vast number involved primarily with maorification) a sudden severe downturn will likely be created and result in a reactive support for Labour (incluidng maorification) which will doom NZ forever.
For many of these jobs there is little alterantive. Scheming 3rd worlders with their eys firmly on our welfare paradise fill most seconde tier jbs.Even bus driver option has been filled by them.
The Curia poll lifting Chipkins in popularity (for it is little else of any substance) is a reflection of Mr Luxon's lack of popularity. He and his minders need to do something useful about it.
What is most alarming however is the rise of the Greens, the Pie-In-The-Sky party. I believe their increased 'support' to be made up largely of disheartened and disillusioned voters who backed the Coalition, but keep waiting and waiting for change that will materially & socially benefit their lives in NZ.
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