David Farrar: The child poverty target changed because Labour failed miserably

Radio NZ reports:

In 2021 the government set targets of reducing the number of children experiencing material hardship from 13.3 down to 9 percent by 2023/24. The government’s new target for 2026/27 is 11 percent.

Yes Labour,. set a target, but were they on track to meet it?

Let’s look at the various targets announced over time for proportion of children in material hardship:

• May 19: 10.3% by 20/21 and 6.0% by 27/28
• Jun 21: 9.0% by 23/24
• Jun 24: 11.0% by 26/27

But how did they actually do?

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First thing to note is by far the largest drop occurred from 2012/13 to 2015/16 – a massive 6% in three years.

The rate was 13.3% when Labour in 2019 set a three year target of 10.3%. They got 11.0%, so got around 3/4 of the way to their goal.

In 2021 the rate was 11.5% and they set a goal for 2024 of 9% or a 2.5% reduction. They delivered a 1% increase by 2023 so you see why the target is now unachievable. This is what happens when inflation gets out of control.

Labour’s 10 years target was from 13.3% to 6% so a 0.73% reduction a year. After five years they delivered a 0.16% a year reduction or 0.8% after five years instead of the targeted 3.7%.

So National inherited a material hardship rate of 12.5% for 22/23 and likely even higher for 23/24, so a target of 11.0% by 26/27 is still a significant challenge which will require a reduction of 0.5% a year, which is six times more than what Labour achieved.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.