Dave Patterson: Zelensky - The Man With No Plan?

He promised to share a pathway to victory in Ukraine, but details remain opaque.

When Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky announced he had a plan for victory over the Russian invaders, interest in hearing the details was high. During his visit to the United States last week, he said he would reveal them to President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Presumably, the Ukrainian leader did that. However, little information has emerged.
Zelensky Believes Ukraine Can Win

The Ukrainian president has an uphill challenge on his hands. Though he sees the conflict between Ukraine and the Russian invaders as winnable, the ebb and flow of the battle has cast a shadow of doubt. We know very little about what Zelensky provided to US leaders as a plan, but we have verifiable evidence that the United States has no strategy for ending the war. If the past 32 months are any indication, the Biden-Harris administration may have had a negative impact on the war effort.

Except for taxpayer money, which the administration has provided freely, the effective use of that money and war materials has been stymied. Some reports on Zelensky’s intentions seem to center on getting permission from the Biden-Harris administration to employ the long-range missiles provided by the United States, France, and the United Kingdom to strike targets inside Russia. Kyiv’s request to take the fight to the enemy’s doorstep has been on the table for months.

The Wall Street Journal discussed Zelensky’s problem:

“A centerpiece of the plan requires the US to give Ukraine the green light to use the weapons as Kyiv sees fit, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Without that authority, he said, Ukraine’s proposals would ultimately be ‘less relevant’ because Kyiv would struggle to respond to continued Russian assaults.”

Analyzing the situation among NATO allies, the United States, and Ukraine, it is disingenuous to criticize Zelensky for not sharing specifics on his roadmap to defeat Russia. The Biden-Harris defense and foreign policy teams have never proposed anything that resembles a strategy, to win, negotiate, or somehow end the bloody conflict. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) made this point on NBC’s Meet the Press. “The Biden administration has not defined what victory means in Ukraine. They have not defined, ‘This is what victory looks like.’ And if you press them, they will tell you what I have just said to you, which is the way this conflict ultimately ends is with a negotiation.”

In the category of the pot calling the skillet black, “The Biden administration is concerned that the Ukrainian leader’s plan for winning the war against Russia lacks a comprehensive strategy and is little more than a repackaged request for more weapons and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles, US officials said,” the WSJ explained. Lacking that, musings of administration officials have little credibility. Dissatisfaction with the White House’s failure to make clear its objective in Ukraine is reflected in Americans’ waning enthusiasm for US support of Ukraine. A recent Pew Research poll revealed, “In March 2022, shortly after the invasion, about four in ten Americans said the US was not providing enough support to Ukraine (42%). This share has since decreased by nearly 20 percentage points.” To be fair, the April 2024 numbers were six points higher than the poll taken November 2023. Those saying the United States is not providing enough support still fell by nearly half from March 2022.

Should there be an opportunity for constructive negotiations, what would Ukraine’s position be? Zelensky has said the goal is to remove all Russia’s invaders from pre-April 2014 territory the Kremlin grabbed during President Barack Obama and then-VP Biden’s watch. NATO membership is also a required concession. Russia paying reparations for the war damage it has inflicted on Ukraine has been mentioned. What is missing is how Kyiv gets Moscow into a discussion on ending the war from a stalemated position, not a strong one.

The Bigger Impediment to Peace

So far, there isn’t much optimism that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is disposed to agree to any stipulations for a peaceful solution Kyiv offers. He must believe that whatever his objective was in invading Ukraine, it will not be won on the battlefield. Hemorrhaging Russian soldiers’ blood will not bring success. Washington has little or no substantive contact with Moscow that could pressure Putin to enter negotiations. If the United States wants to be a player in ending the conflict, communicating with the Kremlin is job one.

From a credits and debits perspective, Zelensky did receive a commitment from Biden for $2.4 billion in additional air defense munitions, air-to-ground munitions, and a variety of other weapons, according to a Pentagon press release. He failed to get the green light to strike Russia’s interior with long-range projectiles. So Zelensky is only marginally better off than when he visited Washington last December seeking money. If Biden believes he can bring an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, his time is running out.

Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE