If a vote for Labour means, in effect, a vote for Green and TPM leaders in cabinet, then many centrist voters will reluctantly stick with National, thanks all the same. Chippy can’t control those other parties or explain them away over the next two years.
Labour is polling in the high 20s or low 30s. They will only be able to become Government if Greens and Te Pati Maori deliver a further 15%+ to them. That means they will be able to demand a full three way coalition, with seats in Cabinet. Neither party has ever had to grapple with the responsibility of being part of Cabinet.
It is hard to describe how left wing and woke such a government would be. It would make the Ardern Government look like a moderate deliberative government.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.
It is hard to describe how left wing and woke such a government would be. It would make the Ardern Government look like a moderate deliberative government.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.
4 comments:
I don't think TPM or Greens will doom Labour because the media are either covering up or promoting their policies and left wing supporters don't care how radical they are. Most of their voters are female who just vote for what is the latest fashion.
That would be high time to leave ASAP
Mutual doom amongst these surreal Left parties ( with nil political little experience in 2 cases) is required for 20 years to even hope to get back on economic track,
Otherwise : 3rd world status " under tribal rule" is inevitable.
Nobody with any common sense will ever vote Labour again. But will we vote National instead? The Nats have not quite two years to shape up or ship out. If the latter, watch the explosion in 3rd party votes.
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