1. NZ First will get at least 10% at the election, unless Winston does a u-turn on ruling out a Hipkins-led Labour.
2. ACT will retain both Tamaki and Epsom.
3. The Greens will retain two out of their three electorate seats.
4. Te Pāti Maori will retain between one and four electorate seats
5. National, ACT and NZ First will receive more party votes than Labour, Greens and Te Pati Maori, resulting in a National-led Government.
6. The Republicans will retain the Senate but lose the House in the 2026 mid-terms
7. Unemployment will be between 5% and 5.5% during the year
8. Inflation will be at or below 2.5% by year end
9. The 2026 Budget will forecast a return to (OBEGALx) surplus by 2028/29 instead of 2029/30
10. National will win Wigram off Labour
11. National will lose five or fewer electorates to Labour
12. There will be a new Speaker of the House
13. The general election will be in November 2026
14. PM Luxon will do a Cabinet reshuffle with Chris Penk promoted to Cabinet
15. The Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue all year
16. Keir Starmer will go as UK Labour Leader and PM after the May 2026 local elections
17. If elected, Michael Wood will announce he is a candidate for NZ Labour Leader, after the election
18. The Macrons will win their defamation suit against Candace Owens
19. All eight parliamentary leaders (incl co-leaders) will remain until the election
20. Labor will retain power in South Australia but lose power in Victoria
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
3 comments:
A couple of sentences outlining the rationale behind each prediction would have been useful. A pure guess as to a future event may sometimes turn out to have been correct by pure chance, but an outline of the logic involved in arriving at a reasoned prediction is much more valuable.
While l accept that your New Zealand predictions are based on a lifetime experience of working at a high level within the local political scene, i will challenge your prediction about the result of the US midterms.
Given that the state of the US economy and the afforability question is ikely to be much less of an issue for voters in 2026 and as such, Donald Trump's party will be benefiting from that change. I would expect the Republicans to retain both houses at the mid terms.
In saying that, l must remind readers that we are witnessing a President who has defied the odds in virtually every sphere of political endeavour whether it be local or international.
As a consequence, it would be a brave man who bet against him in anything he involves himself in now or in the future.
We'll see.
I think you're wrong about the US Midterms David
Given we are witnessing the most transformational President in modern history, it would be a brave man who bets against Trump during the remainder of his term.
And for the Trump haters, my guess is based on achievements that were considered impossible only 12 months ago.
However, we'll see!
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