“I think Te Pāti Māori has got themselves into a world of difficulty. They’re not in any fit shape to play a constructive role in the current Parliament, much less a future government,” he told RNZ head of Labour’s annual meeting in Auckland on Friday night.
“And that’s one of the reasons that we’re going to be out there to win every one of those Māori seats back at the next election. I know Māori voters want a change of government at the next election, and my message to them is, voting Labour guarantees you a change of government.”
I’m all for Labour winning all seven Māori seats. It would be excellent for NZ to not have the party under its current leadership in Parliament. The way they treat their own MPs tells you a lot about them.
However it is not right that voting Labour in the Maori seats guarantees you a change of government. If Labour wins all seven Maori seats, this will in fact help National considerably.
The October 2025 TU-Curia poll had the CL on 61 seats and CR on 59 seats. TPM had 4.4% party vote. If TPM did not win any electorate seats, that would be wasted vote and the outcome would be CL 57 seats and CR 63 seats. You would go from a Labour-led Government to a National-led Government.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
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