Newsroom has an article on the 10 SOEs that a Government could sell.
I’ve done a matrix looking at which could be best to sell.
Asset Competitive Value Sensitivity Prospects
The competitive column is on whether those companies face much competition. Landcorp is the most competitive as there are thousands of other farms. Most of the other companies are in reasonably competitive industries – so you are not selling a monopoly.
TVNZ has limited competition as broadcast media is dying. And NZ Post has competition for courier service but not really for postal services.
Sensitivity is my assessment of whether there would be much of a public outcry. I don’t think anyone (bar hard core activists) will care about selling QV. Kordia and AsureQuality also won’t get people marching in the streets. However those three are only worth around $200 million.
Finally prospects is whether they are in an industry with much of a future.
TVNZ and Landcorp would be politically challenging, but you could manage through risks. TVNZ declines in value every year and most people probably don’t realise the Govt owns a bunch of farms.
The most difficult would be NZ Post, Kiwibank and the power companies. Kiwibank was set up to be state owned, and NZ Post is seen as critical infrastructure, even though its future is bleak.
The power companies could be sold at a time when power prices are not increasing (which is due to lack of supply at peak times), but that isn’t now.
So some easy sales, but is it worth it for $200 million? You could add in two more but that only gets you to $360 million. If you really want some decent money from them, you need to do Landcorp.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
TVNZ has limited competition as broadcast media is dying. And NZ Post has competition for courier service but not really for postal services.
Sensitivity is my assessment of whether there would be much of a public outcry. I don’t think anyone (bar hard core activists) will care about selling QV. Kordia and AsureQuality also won’t get people marching in the streets. However those three are only worth around $200 million.
Finally prospects is whether they are in an industry with much of a future.
TVNZ and Landcorp would be politically challenging, but you could manage through risks. TVNZ declines in value every year and most people probably don’t realise the Govt owns a bunch of farms.
The most difficult would be NZ Post, Kiwibank and the power companies. Kiwibank was set up to be state owned, and NZ Post is seen as critical infrastructure, even though its future is bleak.
The power companies could be sold at a time when power prices are not increasing (which is due to lack of supply at peak times), but that isn’t now.
So some easy sales, but is it worth it for $200 million? You could add in two more but that only gets you to $360 million. If you really want some decent money from them, you need to do Landcorp.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
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