Clive Bibby: Predicting Elections

Predicting General election results is always a difficult task but this time the soothsayers have reason to be confident.

Voting in a general election usually results in a referendum on Incumbent government performance and consequently, the result will more than likely reflect the public mood .in November.

However, this time around, the overall result will most likely be determined by significant changes in voter support for the minor parties based on a widespread dissatisfaction with both major parties ie.National and Labour.

And so, l’m picking the usual “after match” examination of what actually happened will probably show a continuation of voter trends that are apparently culminating in the emergence of some interesting post-election alliances.

In this context and based on developments affecting markets due to the Middle East war, it is anyone’s guess who will benefit from this “plague on all your houses” growing trend.

My guess is that the two minor parties in the current Coalition government - Act and NZ First (particularly the latter) are the ones who emerge - not only as “kingmakers” but even those in a position to dictate future government policy.

I base my own predictions on the performances of a couple of key senior members of the current cabinet and perhaps it should come as no surprise that PM Luxon is not one of them

My pick for standout performers from the current cabinet during the last three years are the Rt Hon Winston Peters in his role as Deputy PM but, more importantly, as our Foreign Minister.followed in a distant second place by Education Minister, the Hon Erica Stanford.

These two have exceeded expectations in portfolios that often prove difficult to manage and as such, have often seen the end of political careers.

In Winston Peters’ case, like a good wine, he just seems to improve with age.

Mind you, his survival as a politician has almost always been based on an uncanny knack for being in the right place at the right time.

And Boy, do we need a person with his diplomatic skills now, more than ever before.

His critics and there are many (l used to be one of them) should be careful before writing off his ability to make good use of his growing support base when determining the ranking order of those who form the new cabinet after the election .

But the real undeniable evidence of his current polling strength is that is just part of a world wide trend in support for “right-wing” politicians - most of which are likely to be more than bit players at the next general elections wherever and whenever they occur.

You only have to look at the meteoric rise of Pauline Hanson in Australis and Nigel Farage in the UK to see how the voters of the Free World are reacting because of a disillusionment with “left-wing” policies that have wrecked economies and subjected populations to lowering living standards - to say nothing of a reduction in homeland security.

Winston Peters is just our version of the world wide politicians who unashamedly, offer policies that are unfairly characterised as “racist” but appeal because they accurately reflect what the general populace regard as being fair in the circumstances.

I see no reason why this trend will not continue to gain pace up until and beyond the next election. So much will depend on the apparent inability of the two major parties to arrest and halt their own decline.

Whatever happens, my guess is that we will awake on the day after the votes are counted to find a new government in place that reflects the support gained by Coalition parties.

Be prepared for surprises that we have not witnessed in modern times.

Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.