If you hadn’t noticed yet - or maybe you didn’t believe it - take a look at Winston Peters’ State of the Nation speech yesterday and you’ll see the proof that this election is shaping up to be New Zealand First’s election.
More than a thousand people turned up in Tauranga to hear him speak. They even had to use two overflow rooms.
Compare that with the same speech last election, which was held in a church with a capacity of just 100.
More importantly, New Zealand First used the event to announce they’ve recruited Alfred Ngaro, the former National Party MP. Now, it was a bit of a running joke in the crowd that they didn’t know who Alfred was - but commentators do.
And I think most of us can see this for what it is: the recruitment of an incredibly well-liked former National MP with a strong Christian faith. That won’t offend Winston’s older voters - in fact, it’s likely to appeal to many of them.
More significantly, it’s a signal of what’s happening and what could accelerate as we get closer to the election: New Zealand First stealing National’s territory. In this case, it’s an MP. As the election nears, it could be votes.
I count among my friends two people who used to be part of National’s parliamentary team. Both are now likely to vote for New Zealand First at this election because they’re conservatives - and Winston is positioning New Zealand First as the home of conservatism.
This cost-of-living crisis - now also a fuel crisis - is going to play straight into his hands. He’ll go hard on smashing the power companies to bring down prices, something National has failed to do. He’ll argue for New Zealand retaining ownership of state assets, a position that resonates more now than ever
Just think about the Marsden Point oil refinery and you’ll see what I mean.
He’ll choose mining over climate concerns, which will appeal to working-class voters. Everything is lining up for him to significantly lift his vote.
Keep an eye on the polling. He’s already sitting at more than 10 percent. If things continue the way they’re going - with the fuel crisis squeezing the economy and Chris Luxon unable to fire the National Party up - that 10 percent could, in my view, become 15 percent by election time.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show. This article was sourced from Newstalk ZB.
4 comments:
for NZ NZF at 17% and ACT at 10% things will change a lot in NZ.
National would only be able to escape policy shift by going with Labour, that would work well for 3 years then oblivion.
The Gentailers and a few other energy tweaks and electricity at 25c/KwHr would set the path to differentiation between NZ and a Australia still mired in woke energy policy.
Over the past years Winston Peters & NZ First have been seen to be the "odd ball" Party.
Over that period many New Zealander's have seen -
- Winston seek self 'privilege's', everyone will have a differing view here, but it appeared to be 'Winston" first every thing second.
- many align with NZ First, then move on
- a lack of developing the Party with potential MP's, those who would stand in an electorate.
People want an MP from their electorate, to be their representative at Parliament, that is what they vote for, not a person added to the Party List, after the votes have been counted.
And many it would be interesting to know how New Zealander's view Shane Jones.
My thoughts - "spendthrift".
If you "look across the ditch" at One Nation, then it is possible we see similarities.
Irrespective of recent Political Polls, all be it the success (this past weekend) in the South Australia State Election, there are many Australians who view Pauline Hanson as an "odd ball" - Winston had that "tag" for some time and there are many of our Citizens who would not cast a vote for NZ First - ditto in Australia with One Nation.
To Bill T. : a Nat/Lab. alliance has a common goal - together, they will advance He Puapua/tribal rule - not formally approved by NZ citizens!
Apart from this, Luxon gets rid of the annoying Right coalition with ACT and NZF; Labour avoids a disastrous coalition with the Greens who would push their catastrophic economic policy ( notably tax) as part of the deal.
All options are very bad indeed.
If we ended up with a grand coalition of National & Liebour I'd predict that the National Party would cease to exist at the subsequent election. What a legacy that would be for Luxon!
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