Steven Gaskell: The Drone War No One Can Afford to Ignore

Shahed 136 drones streaking across the sky may look primitive compared to ballistic missiles, but they are quietly reshaping modern warfare.

Originally supplied by Iran to Russia and now mass-produced in Russia under the name Geran-2 for use in Ukraine, the Shahed-136 represents a brutal shift in battlefield economics. It is cheap, expendable, and designed not necessarily to win spectacular victories but to exhaust an opponent.

A War of Attrition in the Air

The Shahed-136 costs a fraction of the missiles typically used to intercept it. That imbalance is the real weapon.

In the Gulf, air defence systems were built to stop sophisticated missile threats, not swarms of low cost loitering drones. While high-end systems like MIM-104 Patriot are reserved for ballistic missile threats, countries often rely on systems such as NASAMS or AN/TWQ-1 Avenger to counter drones each interceptor costing hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The United Arab Emirates has also deployed the Coyote anti-drone system, which is effective but expensive per engagement.

This creates a dangerous equation: a $20,000 $40,000 drone forcing the launch of a missile worth ten times that or more.

That is not just defence. It is economic attrition.

Lessons from Ukraine

In Ukraine, years of relentless drone attacks forced innovation. The country developed layered, lower-cost responses acoustic detection networks, mobile gun teams, electronic warfare units, and even interceptor drones to bring down Shaheds cheaply.

The Gulf does not yet have that kind of distributed defensive web. Electronic jamming is possible, since Shaheds rely on GPS guidance, but regional capabilities are reportedly limited. Broad-spectrum jamming also risks disrupting friendly systems, complicating defence efforts.

Western militaries are watching closely. Reports suggest the United States is moving additional assets into vulnerable regions and accelerating development of cheaper counter-drone technologies, including directed energy systems and drone on-drone interceptors.

Iran’s Strategy: Pressure Without Direct War

Iran’s approach appears calculated.

Rather than provoking immediate full-scale war, sustained drone strikes create:

- Financial strain
- Psychological pressure
- Political uncertainty
- Rising insurance and energy costs

It is asymmetric warfare designed to wear down Arab states while indirectly increasing pressure on Washington.

The goal may not be battlefield dominance but strategic fatigue.

Likely Outcomes

Rapid Defensive Modernisation: Gulf states and the US invest heavily in layered, low-cost counter-drone systems. Laser weapons, interceptor drones, and AI tracking networks reduce the cost imbalance. The attrition strategy loses its edge.

Economic and Energy Market Shock: If sustained drone waves target infrastructure, even limited physical damage could trigger spikes in global energy prices and investor panic. Markets react faster than missiles.

Escalation Into Direct Confrontation: If US forces are repeatedly drawn into defending regional allies, the risk of open interstate conflict rises. What begins as drone harassment could evolve into missile exchanges.

A New Normal of Constant Drone Warfare: Perhaps the most concerning outcome: drone attrition becomes permanent. Low-cost aerial harassment becomes standard geopolitical pressure affordable for the attacker, expensive for the defender.

The war in Ukraine has shown that modern conflict is no longer just about firepower it is about cost efficiency.

In that equation, the cheapest weapon on the battlefield may prove the most strategically powerful.

Steven is an entrepreneur and an ex RNZN diver who likes travelling, renovating houses, Swiss Watches, history, chocolate art and art deco.